Notre Dame vs UNLV Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -4000 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +1400 |
Here we have the beauty of Notre Dame's independent schedule, as the UNLV Rebels will come to South Bend for the first time ever.
While these two programs are largely unfamiliar with one another, they both are trending in similar directions.
The Fighting Irish come into this matchup off of a loss to Stanford in a game where they were 16.5-point favorites. Notre Dame's offense was dormant, as it was scoreless in the first half and had difficulty stopping Stanford's passing attack.
The Irish have been a big disappointment thus far, but will need to pick themselves back up.
As for the Rebels, they have been trounced in back-to-back games. San Jose State and Air Force combined to outscore them 82-14 over the last two weeks.
Now they'll face a Notre Dame defense that exceeds their preliminary competition. They also have a big question at the quarterback position.
Can either of these offenses get back on track? Let's find out and see how it impacts our betting angle for this one.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Speaking of inefficiency, the Notre Dame offense put on a clinic last week, as it went just 3-for-12 on third down. That was a direct cause of quarterback Drew Pyne's poor day passing the ball, as he went 13-for-27 for 151 yards.
Fortunately, the Irish won't have to put the ball in Pyne's hands all that often this week, as they will have a significant edge on the ground.
Notre Dame runs the ball at the 32nd-highest rate in the country, and it should see plenty of success in this one.
The Rebels are 122nd in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 111th in Defensive Line Yards. This edge up front plays right into Notre Dame's scheme, as it'll be able to have multiple methodical drives down the field.
We saw how the Rebels could be controlled with the rushing attack last week against Air Force, and the Irish should be able to duplicate that effort.
However, they will do so at a much slower pace, which plays directly into our angle.
UNLV Rebels
The Rebels' offense has been centered around the ground game, but with starting quarterback Doug Brumfield out with a concussion, we saw a very different unit last week.
While the Rebels did opt to keep the ball on the ground for the majority of the game against Air Force, all of the carries went to their backfield. This offense is severely missing Brumfield, as his mobility adds another dynamic.
However, backup Cameron Friel did have success throwing the ball, as he went 8-for-10 for 108 yards last week.
Despite his success, the Rebels were highly inefficient on the ground and could not stop the Falcons on the other side. Their minuscule time of possession only allowed them to run 35 plays.
If Brumfield cannot suit up this week, that trend may continue, as the Fighting Irish have held their opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry and are 26th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Rebels' only window will be through the air. We saw the Irish's secondary struggle last week, and that is shown through their rank of 108th in Pass Coverage, according to PFF. The Rebels' passing attack is far from explosive, though, and could be contained by the Irish.
Notre Dame vs UNLV Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Notre Dame and UNLV match up statistically:
UNLV Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 89 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 92 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 28 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 56 | 25 | |
| Havoc | 93 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 26 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Notre Dame Offense vs. UNLV Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 111 | |
| Pass Success | 34 | 70 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 35 | 54 | |
| Havoc | 37 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 100 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 81 | 8 |
| PFF Coverage | 49 | 108 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 12 | 16 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.6 (93) | 28.4 (105) |
| Rush Rate | 54.1% (62) | 58.6% (32) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus, and SportSource Analytics.
Notre Dame vs UNLV Betting Pick
With Brumfield still questionable for this matchup, the Rebels' offensive outlook is bleak. The Irish should be able to stifle them in all facets and minimize their opportunities by controlling the ball.
Ball control will be the key for Notre Dame here, as it should face little resistance on the ground. The steady rushing attack will not only allow the Irish to generate scoring opportunities, but also take time off the clock.
Unless UNLV is inefficient again, the Irish don't have the pace to put up 40 points here.
Take the under in this one-sided affair.
Pick: Under 47 |
