UNLV vs. Utah State Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -124 | 61.5 -106o / -114u | -154 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 61.5 -106o / -114u | +128 |
If you need a reminder about how crazy this college football season has been, this matchup is it. UNLV is favored over reigning Mountain West champion Utah State just a month into the season.
This is the same UNLV program that lost all six of its matchups in 2020 by double-digits and finished last season 2-10. The improvement this season was to be expected, as six of those losses in 2021 came by just one possession.
With some help from the transfer portal, the Rebels have been rolling this season, with a 2-1 record and a close defeat to Cal that came down to the wire.
But Utah State has taken an unprecedented step backwards this season. The Aggies stunned the country by winning the Mountain West at 100-1 odds last season, but the program has been riding the struggle bus through three games in 2022, owning a 1-2 record.
Utah State struggled to put away Connecticut in its opener, was destroyed 55-0 by Alabama and just lost by 28 points to Weber State.
It's hard to remember a better buy-low, sell-high matchup than this one.
UNLV Rebels
What is happening in Vegas?
The Rebels' football program has appeared in just one bowl game this millennium. That number could double this season if UNLV continues to shine the way it has the first month of the season.
Marcus Arroyo’s group is off to a 2-1 start with 31-point victories over Idaho State and North Texas. The Rebels suffered a six-point loss on the road to Cal in Week 2. UNLV’s offense had a goal-to-go situation in the closing seconds, but was unable to find the end zone.
The offense has doubled its points per game production from 20 points last season up to 41 this year.
Quarterback Doug Brumfield won the QB competition in the offseason and has looked phenomenal. He is completing 71% of his passes while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt.
Michigan State wide receiver transfer Ricky White is one of the key transfers Arroyo has brought in. White has been electric this season, as he is averaging 105 yards per game and 17 yards per reception.
One of the biggest surprises has been the UNLV rushing attack that is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season.
This was expected to be a weak link for the Rebels, who lost workhorse running back Charles Williams in the offseason. Williams accumulated over 4,200 rushing yards in his collegiate career.
Utah State Aggies
On the other hand, what is happening in Logan?
The beginning of the 2022 season has been a nightmare through three games for the Aggies. They were embarrassed by Alabama and their lone FCS opponent, while narrowly surviving Connecticut.
Let’s start with an offense that is averaging only 13 points per game. The rushing attack has been nonexistent — ranking 126th in Success Rate and averaging only 3.7 yards per carry — but that’s no different from last year's squad that ranked 127th in Rushing Success Rate.
The passing attack is to blame for the putrid start to the season. The loss of the Aggies' top three pass catchers in the offseason has proven to be difficult to replace.
Quarterback Logan Bonner looked fine in the season opener against UConn, throwing for 281 yards and three touchdowns while averaging just shy of 10 yards per pass attempt. But against Alabama and Weber State, he combined to complete 15-of-40 passes for 159 yards and three interceptions.
Bonner has a chance to right the ship in this matchup against a Rebels secondary that is allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt this season.
Defensively, the Aggies have been fine against the pass, as they are allowing only six yards per attempt and 200 yards per game.
But the Aggies have been unable to slow down opposing rushing attacks, as they are allowing 5.7 yards per carry and 240 yards per game. I anticipate that will be the main priority for head coach Blake Anderson this week.
UNLV vs. Utah State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and Utah State match up statistically:
UNLV Offense vs. Utah State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 81 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 91 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 58 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 46 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 104 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Utah State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 62 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 98 |  |
| Pass Success | 115 | 59 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 55 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 30 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 67 | 75 |
| PFF Coverage | 80 | 107 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 8 | 46 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (74) | 23.0 (16) |
| Rush Rate | 54.8% (61) | 57.5% (43) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
UNLV vs. Utah State Betting Pick
This matchup is tough for me individually. I played UNLV over four wins and Utah State under seven wins in myMountain West preseason win totals article. So, you would naturally think that I would be rooting for UNLV in this matchup.
Wrong.
I’m playing Utah State as this is a premier buy-low, sell-high game.
I’m still buying that this Utah State program is better than the results we’ve seen through three weeks. The offense returned its starting quarterback, running back and entire offensive line from a unit that won the conference last season.
The up-tempo offense is going to find success against a UNLV defense that hasn’t been special.
Meanwhile, UNLV may be the most overvalued team in the nation through its first three games. I like this program, and I believe the Rebels are trending upwards, but they are coming off of their first game as a favorite since 2019, and now they’re favorites against the defending Mountain West champions?
It's time to pump the brakes a little bit on the Rebels, who will be going into a hostile environment to start conference play.
