UTEP vs. Charlotte Odds
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -106 | 56.5 -106o / -114u | -178 |
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -114 | 56.5 -106o / -114u | +146 |
UTEP looks to build on its huge upset over Boise State as it travels to Charlotte Saturday afternoon.
The main storyline headlining this game appears to be the weather report. Remains from Hurricane Ian are expected to be hitting the North Carolina area Saturday afternoon, and reports indicate rain with wind gusts exceeding 30 miles per hour will be a factor.
That may not be the worst news for Charlotte’s defense to hopefully improve on its numbers. Through its first five games this season, every opponent has eclipsed the 40-point mark against the 49ers, including FCS opponent William & Mary.
The 49ers have looked better since getting redshirt senior quarterback Chris Reynolds back under center. But he may be neutralized by the horrid weather Saturday night.
UTEP bounced back from a 1-3 start with a 17-point victory over Boise State as 17-point underdogs.
The weather will certainly be a major factor in the outcome of this Conference USA matchup.
UTEP Miners
UTEP will be trying to ride the wave of its upset victory over Boise State.
The offense has struggled this season, averaging just shy of 17 points per game against FBS opponents. The majority of the success has come through the air behind the arm of quarterback Gavin Hardison.
The 6-foot-3 quarterback is completing only 51% of his passes this season, but is averaging over a dozen yards per completion.
In the first four matchups this season, Hardison attempted an average of 40 pass attempts per game. Against Boise State, the Miners elected to run the ball 54 times, and Hardison completed 10-of-11 passes.
UTEP controlled the clock for 40 minutes in that matchup, and will look to do the same here. With the impending weather, the Miners will lean on their rushing attack against the non-existent Charlotte defense.
Defensively, the Miners will need to shut out the Charlotte rushing attack. Though they’ve allowed 4.8 yards per rush attempt on the season, they have thrived at creating negative plays.
The top three tacklers have accounted for 17 tackles for loss. As a team, the defense has accumulated 33 tackles for loss, which is tied for the eighth most in the nation.
Charlotte 49ers
Through the first month of the season, the Charlotte defense has been historically bad. The 49ers have allowed an average of 49 points per game to FBS opponents, which ranks 129th nationally.
They’re allowing an astronomical 562 yards per game and 7.6 yards per play.
It’s no surprise with those numbers that Charlotte has been horrid against both the run and pass equally.
The group ranks 130th nationally in yards per pass (10.8) and 122nd in yards per rush (5.7). The hurricane weather for this matchup may be a blessing in disguise, as it should help improve those numbers, at least for one week.
The Charlotte program was in disarray playing its first three games this season with quarterback Reynolds injured. Since he’s returned, the group upset Georgia State as 19.5-point underdogs and hung tough with South Carolina before the game was blown open late.
The redshirt senior has tossed nine touchdowns to only three interceptions, while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. Reynolds is the engine for this offense, but unfortunately for the 49ers, he will be neutralized by the weather in this matchup.
The offense will need to come from the ground game despite the 49ers averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season. Moving the chains will be tough, as the rushing attack ranks outside the top 120 in Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
UTEP vs. Charlotte Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTEP and Charlotte match up statistically:
UTEP Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 85 | 119 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 131 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 15 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 126 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 92 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Charlotte Offense vs. UTEP Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 121 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 124 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 68 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 107 | 54 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 28 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 93 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 68 | 122 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 131 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 7 | 102 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.3 (84) | 26.8 (73) |
| Rush Rate | 47.7% (99) | 42.6% (121) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
UTEP vs. Charlotte Betting Pick
The hurricane weather is going to make for plenty of sloppy play at Jerry Richardson Stadium Saturday afternoon.
That weather is going to neutralize both offenses — units that typically look to attack opposing defenses downfield. It’s going to cause these two programs to become run-first teams, and neither has been particularly great rushing the football.
UTEP got an early glimpse at this playing style, as it rushed the ball on 83% of its snaps last week against Boise. That playing style worked out for it, and likely will in this game too.
But rather than back the Miners — there is a lot of unpredictability that comes with playing in a hurricane — I feel more confident in the total in this matchup.
The clock will constantly be moving with both teams being afraid to attack downfield. There will be stacked boxes that will result in plenty of long drives and punts in a game where field position will be at a premium.
