Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Odds
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -102 | 49.5 -114o / -106u | +430 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -120 | 49.5 -114o / -106u | -600 |
Both teams need to win this game to get their first (and potentially only) conference win this season.
Missouri has come up unlucky in some close games that it would have been expected to win this season, while Vanderbilt has handled the easiest teams on its schedule, but has gotten crushed by its brutal conference slate so far.
Neither of these offenses have been strong this year, and the Vanderbilt defense has been among the worst in the country. However, I believe in the Missouri defense to keep this game low-scoring and set this up for a potential under scenario.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Commodores Offense
The Vanderbilt offense is better this season than it has been in years’ past, but it has still struggled overall.
The Commodores rank 86th in Offensive Success Rate and are ranked 79th by SP+. They have scored at least 25 points in every game that they didn’t play Georgia or Alabama though, which is an improvement.
Quarterback AJ Swann has eight touchdowns this season without throwing an interception and is averaging 0.27 EPA per drop back.
Will Sheppard has been the dominant threat outside, scoring eight receiving touchdowns already this season, which is fourth-best at the FBS level.
The one game that perplexes me with this offense is the game against Ole Miss. Vanderbilt had decent success offensively in that game despite Ole Miss having a good defense so far this season.
Outside of this one game, Vanderbilt failed to score a touchdown against Georgia and Alabama, but did well against the poor defenses that it has played.
Now facing an above-average Missouri defense, it will be interesting to see how this offense fares.
Commodores Defense
There’s not really another way to put it: This Vanderbilt defense stinks.
The Commodores rank 129th in Defensive Success Rate and 126th in Passing Success Rate against. This is not just related to the schedule they have played, as SP+ also ranks them as the 108th-best defense in the country.
Vanderbilt also ranks 127th in PFF Defensive Grade and last in the country at 131st in PFF’s Pass Rush Grade.
This sets up to be a get-right game for Mizzou’s offense against this very terrible defense.
Missouri Tigers
Tigers Offense
Lately this team has drawn the short end of the stick and endured some heartbreaking losses.
The Tigers brought Georgia to the end of the game, lost a close one to Florida on the road and also lost to Auburn despite having two chances to win the game, one on a missed field goal to end regulation and another when they fumbled out of the back of the end zone on what would have been the game-winning touchdown in overtime.
In both the Auburn and Florida games, Mizzou had a better Offensive Success Rate than its opponents and likely should have won.
At some point, this bad luck has to reverse. Missouri has been under the radar because of these close losses, but it may start to turn it around soon, especially as it plays some weaker defenses.
The Mizzou offense ranks just 91st in Offensive Success Rate and is the 72nd-ranked SP+ offense. The Tigers have played a couple of top-10 defenses this year and struggled, but also have had impressive showings against the bad defenses they have faced.
Quarterback Brady Cook has been disappointing this season, but now facing a putrid Vanderbilt defense, I would expect the Tigers to have a bit of a bounce-back week on this side of the ball.
Tigers Defense
Missouri’s defense has been quite the pleasant surprise this season.
After being terrible at the start of 2021, this defense slowly progressed toward the end of the season last year and now, the unit is thriving in 2022.
This defense is ranked 28th by SP+ and is 18th in Defensive Success Rate. They have been strong in both facets, ranking 30th in Passing Success Rate against and 20th in Rushing Success Rate against.
With how bad this run defense was at the start of last season, this drastic improvement could not have even been imagined.
The Tigers’ defense has only faltered once this season and that was against the defending national champions. Outside of Georgia, Kansas State has had the best offensive performance against the Tigers, with just a 27th-percentile Offensive Success Rate.
Missouri’s defense this season has been fantastic, and while Vanderbilt’s offense looks to be improved, I think that this defense will control the day.
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and Missouri match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Missouri Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 99 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 87 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 29 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 93 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 52 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Missouri Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 93 | 94 |  |
| Line Yards | 103 | 80 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 127 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 79 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 126 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 73 | 116 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 2 | 100 |
| PFF Coverage | 109 | 55 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 22 | 58 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (104) | 26.9 (77) |
| Rush Rate | 54.6% (61) | 56.2% (46) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Betting Pick
The one unit I have full faith in is the Missouri defense. I think that it will be able to hold the Vanderbilt offense in check and keep this game low-scoring.
Mizzou’s offense hasn’t been great this season, but it should be improved against one of the worst FBS defenses.
Mizzou games are 5-1 to the under this season and the under has hit in each of its last five games.
With this in mind, I think that this game goes under the total of 52.5. While Vanderbilt’s defense is terrible, I don’t know that I have enough trust in the Missouri offense to think that it can cover the 14-point spread to make that my favorite bet in this game.
This game may end up as a boring, low-scoring Missouri win.
Pick: Under 52.5 ⋅ Play to 52 |
