Washington vs. Arizona State Odds
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
The Washington Huskies will travel to the desert on Saturday to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils.
The Huskies are coming off of their first loss of the season a week ago, while the Sun Devils are trying to get things going and are looking for their first win against an FBS team in 2022.
Michael Penix Jr. and Washington will bring plenty of offensive firepower to Tempe, but there is reason to believe in Arizona State will fire back and turn this into a high-scoring affair.
Washington Huskies
Huskies Offense
Washington’s offense has been firing all cylinders this season. With new head coach Kalen Deboer and Penix Jr. at quarterback, this has been one of the best units in the country.
The Huskies rank eighth nationally in Offensive Success Rate, as Penix has been an unreal addition to this offense. He is averaging 0.57 EPA per drop back and has powered this Washington offense to the second-best Passing Success Rate in the country so far this year.
In four of their five games, the Huskies have had an Offensive Success Rate in the 86th percentile or higher. The only matchup that they didn’t was against Michigan State, where they jumped out to a huge lead early on and went with a more conservative approach once the game was out of reach.
Unfortunately for the Huskies, they did fall to 4-1 after a loss against the UCLA Bruins last week, but they still have a shot at a potential Pac-12 Championship game berth.
Penix should have another big game through the air, as Washington has had success against better defenses than ASU's.
Huskies Defense
Washington’s defense is decent but not great. The unit is ranked 31st by SP+ and is 40th in Success Rate this season.
Against weaker opponents, the Huskies have played well this season, but when facing a great offense like UCLA, they completely broke down last week.
Michigan State’s offense isn’t the best, but still had a 67th-percentile Offensive Success Rate against this team, albeit while playing from behind.
This Washington defense is capable, but after seeing it play against UCLA last week, it proved that it's nowhere near infallible. If Arizona State’s offense from the last few weeks shows up, the Sun Devils may put up a fight.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Sun Devils Offense
This Arizona State team is one of the hardest in the country to figure out. The Sun Devils started off 1-2, lost at home to Eastern Michigan and fired Herm Edwards, but the rumor is that someone within the program was leaking game plans to get Herm fired.
It worked, but it’s tough to know how much this impacted the team.
Since then, the Sun Devils have played games against two teams in the upper tier of the conference in Utah and USC. Surprisingly, the offense fared relatively well in these two contests with a 47th-percentile Offensive Success Rate against Utah and a 91st-percentile Success Rate at USC.
The full season numbers for Arizona State are not impressive, but it has improved in recent weeks. This unit is ranked 60th by SP+.
There is a chance that the unit isn’t as good as it has shown in the last couple of weeks since the departure of Edwards, but also don’t be shocked if the Sun Devils' offense looks surprisingly cohesive.
Sun Devils Defense
Just like the offense, I have a hard time telling what this defense is. It was absolutely shredded by USC (as one would expect) and Utah had a successful day, but it was also respectable against Oklahoma State before losing to Eastern Michigan.
The Sun Devils have shown that they don’t have a terrible defense, but they also have shown that they aren’t elite by any means.
This season, the Sun Devils’ defense ranks 70th in Offensive Success Rate despite a relatively tough schedule. The Sun Devils rank 50th against the run, but struggle to defend the pass, ranking 101st in that area.
This weakness is what will keep Arizona State from slowing down Washington, as Penix may prove to be just too good.
Washington vs. Arizona State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington and Arizona State match up statistically:
Washington Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 58 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 50 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 2 | 128 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 19 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 125 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Arizona State Offense vs. Washington Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 109 | 73 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 114 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 100 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 82 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 15 | 108 |
| PFF Coverage | 82 | 97 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 33 | 13 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (57) | 29.3 (120) |
| Rush Rate | 44.8% (113) | 52.7% (73) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Washington vs. Arizona State Betting Pick
Washington games are 4-1 to the over this season, and the Huskies have gone over their team total every week this season besides last week — they still scored 32 points.
I don’t have any doubts about Washington’s offense carrying its weight in this one and having another good day.
I'll be putting some faith in quarterback Emory Jones and this Sun Devils' offense. They have looked better over the last two weeks, as they are starting to figure things out on this side of the ball.
ASU games have gone 4-1 to the under this season, but that trend will start to turn this week, as this game will play out similarly to the USC matchup from a week ago and go well over this total.
Pick: Over 57 Points (Play to 59.5)
