Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
This weekend, college football fans will be blessed with a high-level rivalry between two in-state Sun Belt programs as Georgia Southern travels to Georgia State.
The rivalry is also known as the Modern Day Hate, as the football programs have been matching up since only 2014. Georgia State has come out victorious in five of the eight meetings.
However, the Panthers have opened this season ice cold, losing their first four games of the season. They rebounded nicely with a 17-point victory over Army as the defense finally showed up.
Georgia Southern has been a pleasant surprise for the Sun Belt having won three of its first five games. The Eagles assisted in ending Scott Frost's career with Nebraska after a 45-42 upset in Week 2.
These two programs will face off to determine the real GSU in the state of Georgia.
Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia Southern was one drive away from opening its season 4-1, including a 1-0 mark in Sun Belt play. The Eagles held a two-point lead with less than a minute to play before this happened:
What it sounded like on Chanticleer Sports Network as Coastal Carolina Beats Georgia Southern 34-30 to go to 5-0 #Coastal#Chanticleers#CoastalFootballpic.twitter.com/fFHInqIGPs
— College Football Weekly (@CFBWeekly) October 2, 2022
The Eagles have been flying high offensively, averaging 38 points per game through the first month of the season. The spread offensive attack with a passing rate of 59% has proven to be challenging to slow down.
Head coach Clay Helton hasn’t been shy about relying on the arm of his quarterback. Kyle Vantrease is averaging 47 pass attempts per contest and has completed 60% of those attempts while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt.
Though he has led Southern to the 21st ranking in Success Rate on passing plays, he has also been careless with the football. Vantrease has thrown an interception in four of his five games this season, totaling seven on the year.
Though the rushing attack hasn’t been utilized, it’s been efficient, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The group ranks 15th in both PPA and explosiveness on standard down rushing plays.
The defense hasn’t been great this season, allowing 200 yards per game on both the ground and through the air. Opponents have averaged 5.4 yards per carry while putting up 7.4 yards per pass attempt.
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia State is a program being incredibly undervalued by the public after its 1-4 start.
The Panthers led South Carolina in the second half before allowing two block punts for touchdowns. They led North Carolina by a touchdown in the second half before giving up two unanswered touchdowns. GSU then allowed a game-winning touchdown pass to Charlotte with 17 seconds remaining to put the Panthers at 0-3 to start the season.
They're much better than their 1-4 record indicates.
Redshirt senior quarterback Darren Grainger has stepped his game up since his sluggish performance in Week 1. Over the last four games, Grainger has completed 63% of his passes for an average of 9.7 yards. He’s also tossed nine touchdowns to three interceptions during that span.
Grainger has proven dangerous with his legs as well, averaging 46 yards rushing per game. He joins a loaded backfield that has three other rushers who are averaging between 40 and 70 rushing yards per game. All four ballcarriers average 4.2 yards per carry or better.
However, the defense has been disappointing this season.
Through the first four games, the Panthers allowed all four of their opponents to exceed 35 points per game. But last week, they shut down Army's triple option, holding it to just 14 points.
The Panthers also kept the Knights from converting on any of their four fourth-down attempts.
Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Southern and Georgia State match up statistically:
Georgia Southern Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 40 | 111 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 116 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 43 | 67 | |
| Havoc | 1 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 50 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Georgia State Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 120 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 80 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 98 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 120 | |
| Finishing Drives | 115 | 86 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 101 | 120 |
| PFF Coverage | 67 | 92 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 69 | 34 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.5 (7) | 21.8 (8) |
| Rush Rate | 41.1% (127) | 64.8% (11) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State Betting Pick
Entering the season, Action Network projections had Georgia State with 8.4 wins and Georgia Southern with 4.6. Those roles have been reversed through the first month of the season, and that has opened value in this matchup.
Georgia State is a much better program than its 1-4 record shows. It returned nearly all of its production from one of the most talented rosters in the Sun Belt last season. It's going to rebound in the back half of the season, and this is the perfect opportunity to buy the dip.
Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has continued to exceed expectations by covering four of its five games by an average margin of nine points. This is a great time to sell high on the Eagles, whose defense will spend the majority of the game on the field.
Home-field advantage will be critical in this rivalry matchup, and it's a perfect time for the Panthers to bounce back to reality.
State, never Southern.
