Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +114 |
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -137 |
The Old Dominion Monarchs are an easy team to misread.
In their first season as a member of the Sun Belt Conference, the Monarchs are just 3-3. They were picked in the preseason poll to finish last in the East. They still didn't get much respect even after their upset win over Virginia Tech to begin the season.
Even now after beating Coastal Carolina — the flagship of the conference in recent years — in blowout fashion last week, they're just 2-point favorites against Georgia Southern.
The Eagles enter this game 4-3 on the season (1-2 Sun Belt) and are coming off of an impressive upset of their own. Georgia Southern handed James Madison its first loss of the season last time out, winning 45-38 as a 13-point home underdog against the Dukes.
Both teams have two of the most high-flying explosive offenses in the Sun Belt, while they've also both struggled to get stops on the defensive side of the ball.
They've both pulled off major upsets this season, but only one can come away with the win on Saturday. Will it come down to whoever has the ball last?
Georgia Southern Eagles
The only Sun Belt team scoring more points per game than the Eagles is James Madison, which they beat last week.
And despite his 12 interceptions on the season, Kyle Vantrease still leads all conference quarterbacks by a wide margin when it comes to yards per game and completions on the season.
Vantrease may very well be in line to have his best game of the season this week against the worst passing defense in the conference. The Monarchs give up an average of 278 passing yards per game.
Unfortunately, Georgia Southern's defense isn't helping out the high-output offense much, giving up the third-most points in the league at 31.4 per game.
Old Dominion features a balanced offense, led by the second-leading running back in the conference in Blake Watson and the dependable Hayden Wolff at quarterback. Wolff's biggest advantage over Vantrease is his ability to limit turnovers.
Old Dominion Monarchs
The Monarchs have been considerably better at home — something that's of even more significance this week, as Georgia Southern has lost three road games in a row.
And while the Monarchs offense isn't at the top of the rankings like the Eagles, I think they'll be able to find equal — if not more — success on the offense than Georgia Southern this week.
Running back Watson ranks second in the conference when it comes to total yards, yards per carry and yards per game. The Old Dominion offense, as a whole, ranks second when it comes to red-zone offense.
Now, it'll will be up against the worst rush defense in the conference, as Georgia Southern allows 221.9 rush yards per game and has given up 17 touchdowns on the ground.
The Eagles are also the worst among Sun Belt teams when it comes to fourth downs, giving up a conversion on 66.7% of opponent attempts so far this season.
Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Southern and Old Dominion match up statistically:
Georgia Southern Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 75 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 92 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 56 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 47 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 5 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 14 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Old Dominion Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 107 |  |
| Line Yards | 110 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 116 | 89 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 109 | 68 | |
| Havoc | 101 | 100 | |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 80 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 107 | 27 |
| PFF Coverage | 74 | 61 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 69 | 87 |
| Seconds per Play | 21.5 (8) | 24.1 (27) |
| Rush Rate | 37.4% (129) | 46.5% (107) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion Betting Pick
The Monarchs and the Eagles are two of the fastest teams in the country, both ranking inside the top 30 in seconds per play. Georgia Southern leads the way at eighth, running a play every 21.5 seconds.
Old Dominion knows this Georgia Southern offense is one of the best, and the Eagles will find success if the Monarchs give them the opportunity.
The easiest game plan for Old Dominion will be to keep the Eagles offense off the field. Not only do I think that's what'll happen, but I think the Monarchs will do it with ease.
Old Dominion has one of the best running backs among Group of Five schools, and I expect it to lean on the rush heavily in this game. Not only will the Monarchs maintain time of possession, but they should also find plenty of success because Georgia Southern hasn't been able to stop the run.
And while the defense hasn't been great, specifically against the pass, the Monarchs show up when it matters most.
Old Dominion leads the Sun Belt when it comes to red-zone defense, allowing a score on only 65.2% of trips. It ranks 14th nationally when it comes to Defensive Finishing Drives.
All of Georgia Southern's wins have come against teams who rank outside the top 25 in Defensive Finishing Drives.
I understand both of these teams are known for their pace and offensive output, and it feels like an over is bound to cash in this matchup. But I think the Monarchs can slow this game down and are the better wager to cover at home against a Georgia Southern team that has struggled on the road.
Pick: Old Dominion -2.5 ⋅ Play to -3 |
