Iowa State vs. Kansas Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -106 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | -166 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -114 | 58.5 -115o / -105u | +138 |
Iowa State has started the season 3-0, which includes a victory over hated-rival Iowa. However, the Cyclones dropped their Big 12 opener, 31-24, to Baylor last Saturday.
Next, Iowa State will hit the road to battle the Kansas Jayhawks.
Iowa State has won 11 of the last 12 meetings, but will face a much different Kansas team than it has seen in previous years.
The Jayhawks are 4-0 after a 35-27 victory over Duke last week. The Jayhawks are also 4-0 against the spread this season.
This week, Kansas is a 3.5-point underdog at home to the Cyclones.
Will the Jayhawks continue to be cash cows against the spread, or will the Cyclones' dominance in the series continue?
Iowa State Cyclones
Quarterback Hunter Dekkers and running back Jirehl Brock entered the year with big shoes to fill in replacing program legends Brock Purdy and Breece Hall.
Thus far, both of them have stepped in nicely.
Dekkers has completed 71% of his passes for 1,029 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has also thrown five interceptions in the first four games, which he will need to clean up.
However, the Cyclones still rank eighth in Passing Success Rate.
Dekkers has a favorable matchup against a Kansas defense that ranks 103rd in Passing Success Rate and 76th in Pass Coverage Grade.
Brock is the Cyclones' leading rusher, with 353 yards and two touchdowns on 5.5 yards per carry.
However, outside of Brock, it has been a struggle for the Cyclones to run the ball. As a team, Iowa State is averaging 133.5 yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry. It ranks 110th in Rushing Success Rate and 99th in Line Yards.
Receiver Xavier Hutchinson is building off of a 83-catch season in 2021, as he already has 36 catches for 403 yards and five touchdowns this year. He will be the focal point of the Kansas defense this week, as the next-closest ISU receiver is Jaylin Noel with 19 catches.
Iowa State's defense comes into this one ranked 17th in scoring defense (14.5), 16th in yards allowed per play and 14th in total defense. The Cyclones have also forced eight turnovers — which is tied for 20th nationally — and still maintain a positive turnover margin.
However, the advanced metrics have not been as favorable.
Iowa State is 58th in Passing Success Rate and 63rd in Rushing Success Rate. Nonetheless, the unit has bent but has not been broken, as it ranks 12th in Finishing Drives defensively.
Iowa State will have its hands full defending a potent Kansas offense.
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas has five wins in its previous three seasons, but with a victory on Saturday, it can match that total just five games into head coach Lance Leipold's second season.
Leipold is leading a quick turnaround behind one of the nation's most explosive offenses. The Jayhawks are fourth in the nation in scoring at 48.5 points per game.
Quarterback Jalon Daniels wrestled away the starting job from incumbent Jason Bean, and has run away with it. The junior is completing 71% of his passes while throwing for 890 yards, 11 touchdown passes and one interception.
He also leads the team in rushing (326 yards) and is tied for the team lead with four touchdowns. Daniels has played so well so far this season that he has ascended to sixth in the Heisman Trophy odds.
Daniels is joined in the backfield by a trio of backs who are all averaging over 6.5 yards per carry. Devin Neal leads the group with 258 yards, and he has four touchdowns. Along with Daniels, Daniel Hishaw Jr. and Nebraska transfer Sevion Morrison lead the team with 9.2 yards per carry.
Kansas ranks 13th in Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives, 14th in Rushing Success Rate and 16th in Line Yards. The Jayhawks will have an edge over the Cyclones in all of these metrics but Finishing Drives.
However, Kansas' offense is not the only side of the ball that has seen significant improvement this season.
Last season, Kansas was 129th in scoring defense (42.2 PPG) and 127th in total defense after allowing 487.2 yards per game.
This year, the Jayhawks are allowing 15 fewer points per game. While still 83rd nationally, it is a noticeable improvement from last year.
Fixing the Kansas run defense has been a key reason for the defense's rise. This season, the Jayhawks are allowing 138.8 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry. That's down from 250.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per carry last season.
The Jayhawks are 69th in Rushing Success Rate and will have an edge against Iowa State in that area.
Miami (OH) transfer defensive end Lonnie Phelps leads the team with six tackles for loss and four sacks.
As a team, the Jayhawks are tied for 35th nationally in sacks and 45th in Pass Rush Grade. They should put some pressure on Dekkers this week.
Iowa State vs. Kansas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Kansas match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. Kansas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 110 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 96 |  |
| Pass Success | 8 | 103 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 101 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 55 | 103 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 77 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Kansas Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 63 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 58 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 77 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 43 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 12 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 36 | 5 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 76 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 87 | 79 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (76) | 28.0 (101) |
| Rush Rate | 48.1% (97) | 61.2% (22) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Iowa State vs. Kansas Betting Pick
With the possible exception of Houston — which has underwhelmed this season — Iowa State will be the best team Kansas has played this season, and it has also had the Jayhawks' number recently.
With that said, it is hard to not be impressed by what Kansas has done so far this year.
Kansas has one of the most electric players in the country in Daniels. He is the better quarterback in this game, and that gives the Jayhawks an edge in what should be a tight battle.
The Jayhawks will also be playing in front of a sellout crowd on homecoming weekend.
In what may be a high-scoring battle, I have more trust in the Kansas offense.
I have to take the points with the home underdog in this spot, and I would not be surprised if Kansas won outright and ended its drought against Iowa State.
