Texas vs Iowa State Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -720 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
The Texas Longhorns are back in the national spotlight after the return of freshman phenom quarterback Quinn Ewers last week.
The Longhorns saw themselves jump back into the AP Top 25 Poll after back-to-back impressive victories over West Virginia and Oklahoma.
The Longhorns dropped two of their three matchups when Ewers was out with injury, but he dazzled in his return (four touchdowns) in the dominant 49-0 victory over Oklahoma.
Now Ewers and the Texas offense will need to regroup against a stifling Cyclones defense.
Iowa State opened the season 3-0 before dropping its last three contests to Big 12 opponents. The Cyclones are in must-win territory, and a victory over Texas could certainly stop the bleeding.
Head coach Matt Campbell will have history on his side, as he has led his program to three straight victories over Texas. But will that be enough to slow down the Longhorns, who are firing on all cylinders?
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns are back in business with Ewers healthy. The freshman quarterback missed three weeks after suffering a shoulder injury early in the second quarter against Alabama.
He was lighting up the Crimson Tide in the first quarter before the injury, as he completed 9-of-12 passes for 134 yards.
Texas is BACK*
(*once Quinn Ewers is)
He had an elite 90.2 @PFF grade against #1 Alabama, who has arguably the best defense in college football.
On just 15 dropbacks, Ewers had three big-time throws.
Believe the hype.pic.twitter.com/pzKoR67JvI
— Max Chadwick (@Chad_Maxwick) September 12, 2022
Ewers showed out in his return against Oklahoma, as he passed for 289 yards and four touchdowns.
Junior running back Bijan Robinson carried the load in Ewers' absence. Robinson has solidified himself as one of the top running backs in the nation, scoring a touchdown in every game this season and tallying 10 in total.
Over the last four games, Robinson has rushed for 6.5 yards per carry while averaging 135 rushing yards per game.
The Texas defense has shown its continued improvement from last season, as it has held opponents to 17 points per contest. The Longhorns put all the pieces together last week, as they held the Sooners to 39 passing yards and 2.3 yards per carry while snatching two interceptions.
The defense is allowing just 4.5 yards per play, as it ranks ninth in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
The pass defense has also been strong, as the Longhorns sit at 21st in the nation in PFF Coverage Grade.
They have the potential to pitch back-to-back shutouts against a bottom-tier Cyclones offense.
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State has been dropping like a meteor after its 3-0 start.
The main culprit has been an offense that has averaged just 15 points across the three-game losing streak.
That’s quite the decline from the group that scored 32 points through the first three games of the season, though the step up in class to Big 12 defenses can be attributed to that drop off.
The Cyclones own a Rush Rate of just 45% — which ranks 111th in the nation — as the run game has been non-existent over the last three weeks. Iowa State has averaged just two yards per carry and 56 rushing yards per game against conference foes.
The offense has been reliant on the arm of redshirt sophomore Hunter Dekkers, who has thrown 38 passing attempts per game and has averaged 6.7 yards per attempt. He’s completed 67% of his passes while throwing for 11 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Without any threat from the rushing game, the offense is constantly finding itself playing from behind the sticks. In three Big 12 matchups, the offense is converting on third downs just 37% of the time.
The defense has remained the backbone of this program while holding opponents to fewer than 14 points per game.
Coordinator Jon Heacock has patented the Cyclones' defense that presents a three-high safety look. That defense is allowing the fewest passing yards (187), rushing yards (91) and points per game (13.7) in the Big 12.
If the Cyclones continue the streak and make it four wins in a row against Texas, it will be the defense that keeps this game within reach.
Texas vs Iowa State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Iowa State match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 106 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 42 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 95 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 55 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 31 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Texas Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 50 | 32 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 65 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 114 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 46 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 5 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 32 |
| PFF Coverage | 70 | 21 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 130 | 35 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.2 (83) | 25.5 (43) |
| Rush Rate | 44.9% (111) | 54.5% (62) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Texas vs Iowa State Betting Pick
Texas will need to avoid a letdown in this sandwich spot. The Longhorns had an emotional 49-0 victory over rival Oklahoma last week and have a huge matchup against Oklahoma State next week.
Texas is laying 17 points to an Iowa State program that hasn’t lost by that much in 30 games. The Clones also own the Big 12’s top defense.
With all that said, the Longhorns won’t overlook the Cyclones. Had the Longhorns not lost Ewers, they could/should have beaten Alabama and wouldn’t have dropped the game to Texas Tech.
The Longhorns could potentially be the No. 1 team in the nation at this point.
But he did get hurt, and the Longhorns did lose those two games.
At this point, they still have an outside chance at an championship run, but they will need to remain perfect for the rest of the season while getting some help from others.
That starts with this matchup against the Cyclones.
The Iowa State offense has been horrific the last two weeks. The group found the end zone just once on its last 21 drives against Kansas and Kansas State. That’s not going to cut it against a high-powered Texas offense that is dangerous through the air and on the ground.
I am backing Texas to jump out to an early lead and force Iowa State to attempt to play catch up, which is something this offense is not built for.
