Kansas vs. Oklahoma Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
The Jayhawk dream came to a close last week. Jalon Daniels went down before Jason Bean came in and couldn't quite keep up with TCU, as the Jayhawks suffered their first loss of the season.
But at least Kansas isn't Oklahoma.
After crushing Nebraska to move to 2-0, the Sooners have lost three straight by a combined score of 145-58. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel went down, too.
Therefore, we have a matchup between a 5-1 Kansas team and a 3-3 Oklahoma team who both are dealing with injuries to their starting quarterbacks and Kansas is …
A nine-point underdog?
The public sniffed that out right away, with over 90% of the tickets coming in on Kansas at the time of writing.
I hate backing trendy underdogs, but the market has been consistently wrong on Kansas all season. The Jayhawks are 5-0-1 ATS.
Will Kansas make it 6-0-1? Will Oklahoma finally break out of its slump?
Kansas Jayhawks
Nothing seems definitive regarding Daniels' status. The reports are that he's done for the season. But the man himself is adamant he'll be back.
Sheeesh…That’s News to Me🤔 https://t.co/qLfVAxxLZy
— 𝕁𝔻𝟞💫 (@JalonDaniels6) October 11, 2022
Head coach Lance Leipold also had something to say about this recent development.
Look who dropped by my office tonight! #RockChalkpic.twitter.com/m8zNl0LLXl
— Lance Leipold (@CoachLeipold) October 11, 2022
The status of Daniels is massive for our outlook on this Kansas team. The market seems to value Kansas as if he will not play, and I will do the same in my analysis for the time being.
Either way, Bean looked great against TCU. He was the Jayhawks' starter last season, so he has Big 12 experience and brings a level of speed that Daniels doesn't have.
There was a reason that Daniels won the job, and it's because of Bean's 6:6 TD-to-INT ratio last season. Despite throwing four touchdowns and just one pick in a 262-yard, 10.2 YPA performance against TCU, Bean still had just three Big Time Throws and two Turnover Worthy Plays.
Replacing Daniels for Bean shouldn't affect the ground game or the defense.
The run game shouldn't miss a beat. This is a unit that's 16th in Success Rate and is putting up over 215 yards per game at 5.9 YPC. Bean's athleticism only fortifies the ground attack's ability.
But the defense will still be trash.
The Jayhawks can tackle, but they can't cover, are outside the top-90 FBS teams in Success Rate and Havoc, and are allowing a cool 400 yards per game.
Oklahoma Sooners
Kansas seems to be pretty weak in the front seven. Most teams have trucked through the Jayhawks and consistently remained in Standard Downs.
That could play in Oklahoma's favor.
The Sooners are a top-10 offense in Rush EPA per play and a top-35 offense in Standard Downs Success Rate. The offensive line is also seventh in Line Yards, meaning the Sooners should get a push relatively easy.
It starts with lead back Eric Gray, who has stepped into the Kennedy Brooks role with zero issues. He's put up 500 yards on almost seven YPC so far. He's PFF's sixth-rated halfback and is top-10 in 10+ rushes this season.
Just don't play Gray at quarterback.
If you want a good laugh.. watch this jump pass by Oklahoma RB Eric Gray😂😂😂pic.twitter.com/0k1MWGX2zZ
— RanDynasty (@ran_dynasty) October 8, 2022
Gabriel will hopefully be the one slinging those interceptions this Saturday. That is — if he ever makes a mistake.
Gabriel has 11 touchdowns and eight Big Time Throws to a combined zero Turnover Worthy Plays or interceptions. He was unbelievable at UCF and is now making plays in the Big 12.
With a star quarterback and running back, why aren't the Sooners better?
Two reasons.
First, the pass blocking has been poor.
Second, the defense has been horrendous — even worse than Kansas'.
Oklahoma ranks outside the top 100 in both PFF's Coverage and Tackling grades. The Sooners are bottom 40 in:
- Rush Success Rate Allowed
- Pass Success Rate Allowed
- Pass Rush
- Defensive Line Yards
- Points Per Opportunity Allowed
Oklahoma can get shredded in every which way. Brent Venables and Ted Roof's scheme is not translating well to the Big 12.
Kansas vs. Oklahoma Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Oklahoma match up statistically:
Kansas Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 82 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 78 | 90 | |
| Havoc | 42 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 103 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oklahoma Offense vs. Kansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 89 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 93 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 69 | 73 |  |
| Havoc | 55 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 77 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 9 | 106 |
| PFF Coverage | 75 | 109 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 107 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (109) | 21.9 (8) |
| Rush Rate | 60.3% (20) | 60.0% (21) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Kansas vs. Oklahoma Betting Pick
I want to look immediately at the over. But the total is high at 62.5 and sharp money is coming in on the under. Our projections make this number exactly 62.5, so I'll pass.
Moreover, this total is too variable, with injury concerns for both starting quarterbacks. This number could jump or fall whether either or both starting quarterbacks are in or out.
But in any of the four possible situations, I don't see how Oklahoma wins by double digits.
The Sooners have won 17 straight against Kansas, but are just 1-4 ATS in the last five years.
Coach Leipold and quarterback Bean hosted Oklahoma last season when Lincoln Riley was still coaching Caleb Williams at quarterback. The Sooners won by just 12 as 38-point favorites.
Bean and Leipold can keep up with Venables and a limping Gabriel. Leipold and a limping Daniels can keep up with Venables and a healthy backup, et cetera.
That's especially the case when the Sooners' defense is a total dumpster fire.
Kansas has been undervalued by the markets all season. The Jayhawks have proven they can compete with any team in any type of game, especially a shootout between two good rushing attacks and two poor defenses.
Bean kept it within seven against TCU last week and will keep it within nine against Oklahoma this week.
I don't like betting on trendy dogs, but I can't avoid this one. Whoever plays at quarterback, the bet is on Kansas at +7 or better.
