Kansas State vs. Iowa State Odds
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -107 | 45 -107o / -107u | -110 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -107 | 45 -107o / -107u | -105 |
In another week of football in the Big 12, Kansas State heads north to Iowa State to take on the Cyclones in the latest edition of Farmageddon.
These two teams are currently going in opposite directions in Big 12 play. The Wildcats put the league on notice with a road win at Oklahoma then followed that up with a victory over Texas Tech at home last week.
Meanwhile, Iowa State remains winless in the conference after dropping its opener to Baylor and then falling short to the upstart Jayhawks last week. Matt Campbell has had the Cyclones consistently in the upper echelon of the league in recent memory. For that to remain the case, the Cyclones will need to avoid an 0-3 start in conference play.
Who has the edge in Jack Trice Stadium come Saturday night? Let's discuss.
Kansas State Wildcats
Wildcats Offense
Adrian Martinez is playing the best football of his career, and it couldn't be coming at a better time for the Wildcats.
After struggling in the home loss to Tulane in Week 3, Martinez has shown much more poise and confidence. The Nebraska transfer used his legs to exploit the Oklahoma defense in Norman and is also starting to take more shots down the field with his arm.
Combining a confident Martinez with the always-reliable Deuce Vaughn allows this offense to be extremely effective, regardless of the competition.
The Cats will take a step up in weight class when they face a stingy ISU defense this week, but this group should still find plenty of success.
Wildcats Defense
Kansas State remains extremely strong in the trenches on defense. The Wildcats can get to the quarterback with just four, led by Felix Anudike-Uzomah, one of the best edge rushers in the conference.
KSU has also been really stingy when its opponents enter the red zone. The Wildcats check in at 20th in Defensive Finishing Drives, and they have done a quality job of keeping opposing offenses out of the end zone in big moments.
If the Wildcats can get Iowa State into third-and-long situations, they should generate plenty of Havoc in the Cyclones backfield.
Iowa State Cyclones
Cyclones Offense
It's been a tough start to conference play for the Cyclones, and most of it is because of the poor offensive play. Iowa State really misses Breece Hall, and it shows when looking at this team's rushing metrics.
The Cyclones rank outside the top 100 in both Rushing Success Rate as well as Line Yards. The inability to get a push on early downs has forced Hunter Dekkers into third-and-long situations, and the junior has started to turn the ball over as a result.
Dekkers threw it 48 times last week against Kansas, and I can assure you that is not how Matt Campbell wants his offense to operate.
Cyclones Defense
Iowa State has a rock-solid defensive unit once again in 2022. The Jayhawks had been moving the ball up and down the field against everybody until they saw the Cyclones last week.
ISU is inside the top 10 in Defensive Finishing Drives, and it has favorable numbers defending both the run and the pass on standard downs.
The Cyclones have held four of their five opponents to 14 points or fewer, and this unit will need to be great once again Saturday for the team to have a chance to pull off the upset.
Spying the quarterback will be important for this defense as the Cyclones need to make Martinez beat them with his arm instead of allowing him to use his legs to scramble for first downs.
Kansas State vs. Iowa State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Iowa State match up statistically:
Kansas State Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 121 | 58 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 84 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 9 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Iowa State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 114 | 114 |  |
| Pass Success | 12 | 23 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 100 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 20 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 51 | 53 |
| PFF Coverage | 19 | 43 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 74 | 130 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (95) | 27.0 (78) |
| Rush Rate | 63.9% (13) | 46.0% (107) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Kansas State vs. Iowa State Betting Pick
I'm well aware of how loud Jack Trice Stadium can get during a night game in Ames, but Kansas State is the better team on both sides of the ball.
The Cyclones don't have the offensive firepower to keep pace with a balanced Wildcats attack. Martinez has done a better job of taking care of the ball in 2022, and I expect that to be the case again Saturday night.
The Wildcats learned the hard way against Tulane that they're not good enough to go through the motions and still win. They'll be laser-focused for this one and will find a way to get it done in a hostile environment, remaining right at the top of the Big 12 standings.
Give me EMAW on the moneyline.
