Editor's Note: Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham will not play Saturday against Virginia due to concussion-like symptoms, our Brett McMurphy reported.
Louisville vs. Virginia Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +100 |
The ACC gives us, well, the bottom of the barrel here, as the Louisville Cardinals head to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers.
These programs are 2-3 on the year overall, and neither has a conference victory, as they are a combined 0-5.
Fortunately, one of these teams will eliminate their zero in that column after this matchup.
The one question is, who will it be?
Louisville has had an up-and-down campaign thus far, as it's beaten two Florida schools in UCF and USF, but has also lost tight games to Florida State and Boston College.
In addition, the Cardinals have a massive question mark at quarterback this week, and the market has reacted to it. Whether Malik Cunningham plays decides what side to be on for this matchup.
As for the Cavaliers, they have not looked great against decent competition thus far. Their only two victories have come over Old Dominion and Richmond, but they may be able to capitalize on the circumstances if they fall in their favor.
We'll break down how to play this matchup in either scenario. So, let's dive in.
Louisville Cardinals
As I alluded to in the intro, the most significant factor in this entire matchup is the status of Cunningham. He suffered a concussion in last week's loss to Boston College and his status for this matchup is currently questionable.
Now, the Cavaliers are practicing like Cunningham will play, but that does not mean he will. The market has reacted, as this line has dropped from five to three.
If Cunningham goes, the Cardinals' offense should face little resistance, especially on the ground. The Cavaliers will be outmatched up front, as they are outranked 58 to 103 in Line Yards.
On top of that, they are 70th in rushing yards per game allowed.
However, if Cunningham does not go, the offense will fall on the shoulders of Brock Domann. Domann is an inexperienced junior who has only had 16 career pass attempts and has only completed six of them.
He is not a mobile quarterback, so the offense will have a very different dynamic with Domann at the helm.
While Domann is a significant drop off from Cunningham, the Cardinals' passing success overall is in question. Despite Virginia's record, the Cavaliers' secondary has played exceptionally well. They rank 57th in yards per pass allowed and 17th in coverage, according to PFF.
Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have dropped off drastically this season, and it is surprising as Brennan Armstrong is still starting.
Let's not forget that just a season ago he threw for 4,449 yards and had a 31-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
However, his play has been nowhere near what we saw last season.
Thus far, Armstrong has a four-to-five touchdown-to-interception ratio, and his completion percentage has dropped by over 13%.
The issue for his poor play is partly on the offensive line. Virginia is 129th in pass blocking and he has been sacked 13 times in five games.
However, they should be able to find some success on the ground. Perris Jones has been solid for the Cavaliers, as he's averaging 5.4 yards per carry and has found pay dirt twice.
However, he will have some holes, as the Virginia offensive line has a significant edge in Line Yards and a sizable edge in Rushing Success Rate.
Louisville vs. Virginia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Virginia match up statistically:
Louisville Offense vs. Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 91 | 68 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 6 | 73 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 52 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Virginia Offense vs. Louisville Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 122 | 29 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 129 | 57 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 31 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 116 | 17 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 16 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 26 | 124 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (42) | 24.3 (29) |
| Rush Rate | 57.4% (40) | 48.7% (93) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Louisville vs. Virginia Betting Pick
The market has come down on this line and is close to cutting it in half, as there are 2.5s popping up.
However, the market has not come down on the total just yet. If Domann starts, the Cardinals' offense will look much different and play much slower. On top of that, he will throw more and has a fairly tough matchup in that department.
On the other side, Armstrong has not found his form, and the offense is suffering because of his play and the play of the Virginia offensive line. The Cavs should have more success on the ground in this matchup, which will impact the total.
So, I have two angles for this matchup depending on the status of Cunningham. If he is out, I would recommend the under at 50.5 or better. If he is in, play Louisville -3 or better.
