Memphis vs. Navy Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -195 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
Navy and Memphis both look for their first win of the season, as they kick off play in the American Athletic Conference.
Although both early-season losses reflect the same in the win/loss column, these teams come into this matchup in opposite circumstances and fashion.
Memphis is coming off of an expected loss to Mississippi State after closing as three-possession underdogs. The Tigers lost 49-23 after being outgained by 250 yards of total offense. Ryan Silverfield's squad had no answer for slowing down the Air-Raid attack of Mike Leach.
That won’t be a concern in this matchup, as the Tigers' defense will need to focus on slowing down the Navy triple-option offense.
Navy fumbled away its game to FCS opponent Delaware as double-digit favorites. The Midshipmen fumbled on their opening play of the season, leading to a Blue Hens touchdown. Ken Niumatalolo’s squad was denied a game-tying touchdown inside the red zone to end the game.
Week 1 was a tough start for both AAC programs, and we should see some similar offensive struggles in this matchup.
Memphis Tigers
Memphis appeared to be back to its old tricks of non-existent defense combined with an explosive offense — though that's exactly what the program is looking to steer away from this season.
The Tigers allowed a touchdown on five of their opponent's first six possessions of the game in their opener.
They had no answer to Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers, who passed for 450 yards and five touchdowns. Rogers averaged 9.2 yards per attempt on his 49 throws in the game.
Memphis was able to shut down the rushing attack of the Bulldogs, allowing just 97 yards on 34 attempts.
That will be the story in this matchup against Navy, as it rushes the ball on 84% of its plays.
The Tigers return 70% of their defense from a group that allowed 4.1 yards per carry. Last year, the group held Navy to just 3.0 yards per carry on its 65 attempts in the matchup.
The Memphis offense relied on producing big plays, ranking 11th in Explosiveness and 73rd in Success Rate in 2021.
The loss of Calvin Austin III will change the schematic approach this season for the Tigers. Austin III was a key reason the offense was so explosive last year, as he was capable of taking any catch to the house.
14 days until Memphis Tiger football & here's Calvin Austin scoring on a 69 yard reverse to give Memphis a 14-7 lead over Navy last season. Tigers win 35-17 (Navy radio) pic.twitter.com/xsKicr0Xt8
— Jeb Hill (@memphistigerjeb) August 20, 2022
With a ton of production to replace at receiver and a deep backfield, the Tigers should lean on the run game. That’s where most of the production came offensively in Week 1, as the group averaged 6.1 yards per carry versus just 5.5 yards per pass attempt.
Navy Midshipmen
Navy had nearly 700 rushing attempts last season and lost only five fumbles. In its opener against Delaware, the Midshipmen coughed up three fumbles in the first half. The turnovers led to a 14-point second-half deficit that became insurmountable.
Quarterback Tai Lavatai averaged half-a-dozen pass attempts per game last season. Lavatai doubled that in Week 1, going 5-of-13 for 130 yards.
The rushing attack was unproductive against the Blue Hens and averaged just 2.9 yards per carry on 63 attempts.
The Midshipmen attempt to right the ship against a Memphis defense that allowed nearly 550 yards of offense in Week 1. The issue is that 450 yards came through the air, and the revamped Memphis defense under Matt Barnes looked strong against the run with its four-man front.
Navy’s defense was dominant against Delaware, allowing just 200 yards of total offense. The Midshipmen held the Blue Hens to an astonishing 13 rushing yards on 29 carries, good for 0.4 yards per attempt.
It was the offense putting the defense in unfamiliar tough situations that led to two touchdowns through the air.
Memphis vs. Navy Betting Pick
New offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey has preached that Memphis will be running the football this season. That was the case in Week 1, as the Tigers owned a rush rate of 40% despite trailing for the entirety of the game.
We know that Navy is going to run the ball. The team owns the third-highest rush rate in the country. Last season, the ball was kept on the ground in 99 of the 115 snaps (86%) in this matchup.
The Midshipmen’s defense held strong in that game apart from two 70-yard explosive touchdowns — one coming by the hands of Austin III, who is no longer with the program.
Memphis has adjusted its defense to a four-man front in hopes of fixing its woes against the run. That will be on full display in this matchup.
Navy’s offense ranked outside the top 115 in both Success Rate and Explosiveness. Expect the clock to constantly be moving, as both offenses will be keeping the ball on the ground.
I’m playing the under in this matchup, as Memphis attempts to retool offensively.
