Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
After pulling off an upset win at Northwestern to become the self-proclaimed "Chicago's MAC team," Miami (OH) will head to Buffalo to begin conference play.
The RedHawks had a brutal non-conference schedule that included three road games against Power Five teams in Kentucky, Cincinnati and Northwestern.
VICTORY SUNDAY‼️
Huge thank you to all our fans who helped make Chicago feel like a second home last night!#RiseUpRedHawks | 🎓🏆 pic.twitter.com/4ixedfQEl8
— Miami Football (@MiamiOHFootball) September 25, 2022
Buffalo currently sits atop the East division standings at 1-0 — since no other team, including Miami (OH), has played a league game yet. Fresh off of their first victory of the year, the Bulls will be out for revenge from a blowout loss in Oxford last season.
The home team has dominated this series of late, with the host winning each of the past five meetings — all by at least nine points.
Will that trend continues on Saturday in a game that will likely have major ramifications later in the year in the East division? Let's dig in.
Miami RedHawks
Miami came into the year as the clear favorites in the East in large part due to returning quarterback Brett Gabbert, the league's best signal caller.
However, things have since opened up in an already wide open division, as Gabbert suffered a serious injury in the season opener.
With the transfer of previous backup AJ Mayer — who had plenty of game experience — that opened the door for dual-threat Aveon Smith. However, the redshirt freshman had only previously attempted one pass at the collegiate level.
The drop-off has been significant. If you remove the Gabbert's snaps in the opener, the RedHawks have had the most inefficient passing attack in the league. Against three FBS opponents, Smith has gone 18-for-44 (40.9%) for 191 yards (4.3 ypa).
Smith can't lean on graduated wideout Jack Sorenson, who led the RedHawks in receiving in each of the past four seasons. However, he does have an extremely talented receiver on the outside in former Penn State transfer Mac Hippenhammer.
Still, this is a very limited aerial attack.
Defensively, Miami runs a 4-2-5 that needed to replace 10 of its top 13 tacklers, including:
- First-team All-MAC LB Ivan Pace Jr. (Transferred to Cincy. Top-10 nationally in tackles last year).
- Second-team All-MAC DE Lonnie Phelps (Transferred to Kansas. Led the RedHawks in sacks).
- Third-team All-MAC DE Dominique Robinson (now with the Bears)
- Starting safeties Mike Brown and Sterling Weatherford (both recently signed contracts with NFL teams)
The run defense has been very sturdy to start the year with a pair of stout run-defenders manning the interior of the line.
On the back end, Michigan State transfer Michael Dowell has helped fill the void at one of the safety spots, while Matthew Salopek still thrives in the box against the run.
However, the defensive backfield still remains a bit vulnerable in coverage.
Buffalo Bulls
The Bulls shook off an 0-3 start and kicked off conference play with a win at Ohio last weekend.
Coming into the season, the offense was expected to be a work in progress with only three returning starters.
However, Rutgers transfer Cole Snyder — who won a three-way QB competition in camp — has progressed nicely through the first four games. It helps to have two very good receivers to work with on the outside in Louisville transfer Justin Marshall and incumbent starter Quian Williams.
The rebuilt offensive line has struggled to run block, but has done an adequate job in pass protection. The Bulls' offense seemingly put it all together in a 50-point outburst last week at Ohio.
Buffalo also runs a 4-2-5 defense, which excelled at getting after the quarterback last season, but struggled in almost every other area, especially in coverage.
Head coach Maurice Linguist hoped a rebuilt secondary full of transfers (a consistent theme for the Bulls, who also had the best transfer class in the MAC) could fix those issues.
The secondary has experienced some growing pains — albeit against a pair of excellent starting quarterbacks in Grayson McCall and Taulia Tagovailoa — as the staff continues to try to find the right rotation.
The strength of the defense is once again the defensive line in front of All-MAC caliber James Patterson.
Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Buffalo match up statistically:
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 63 |  |
| Pass Success | 101 | 127 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 46 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 105 | |
| Finishing Drives | 114 | 126 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Buffalo Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 75 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 48 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 48 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 61 | 125 |
| PFF Coverage | 113 | 126 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 75 | 64 |
| Seconds per Play | 32.0 (128) | 26.3 (65) |
| Rush Rate | 60.9% (24) | 53.3% (68) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Betting Pick
For the second week in a row, Buffalo will face a conference foe that defeated a Power Five opponent the week prior.
And just like last week, I think the Bulls take care of business.
I believe the market is over-valuing Miami (OH) after its win over a Northwestern team that, keep in mind, lost at home in the previous game to Southern Illinois.
The RedHawks still don't have the services of Gabbert, who made this team go. The devastatingly inefficient passing attack with Smith at the helm can't take advantage of this rebuilt Buffalo secondary.
Meanwhile, I still think the market is penalizing Buffalo too much for its loss (on a Hail Mary) against Holy Cross a few weeks ago.
Not only is Holy Cross a top-notch FCS team this year, but we've seen Buffalo continue to improve in the weeks following that loss, especially on offense with a brand new quarterback and eight total new starters.
Snyder should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of the inexperienced Miami (OH) defense.
I'll side with the more reliable passing attack playing at home.
