Michigan vs. Iowa Odds
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -440 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +335 |
A rematch of 2021's Big Ten Championship game is set to kick from Kinnick Stadium on Saturday.
Michigan had all of the momentum after defeating Ohio State with all eyes forward to a trip to the College Football Playoff. The result was nothing close to the desired target for the Hawkeyes, who lost 42-3 thanks in part to a Wolverines defensive line that dominated the game.
Fast forward to Week 5 of 2022, and Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh believes the game in Kinnick will be a 'knock down, drag out' affair.
Michigan struggled to put Maryland away as 17-point favorites last week, despite scoring on the first offensive play of the game and being gifted a trio of turnovers.
The Wolverines allowed Maryland to score 27 points on drives that extended past the 40-yard line as the defense posted a subpar performance from a Havoc perspective.
Iowa has continued to be one of the most opportunistic teams in the nation when it comes to opponent mistakes. A pick-six and scoop-and-score highlighted a win over Rutgers that just went over the closing total.
The offense continues to struggle, having yet to pass for more than 175 yards in any game.
The Hawkeyes will look to keep this game close, as a handful of meetings against Michigan in Iowa City have finished within one possession.
Michigan Wolverines
Harbaugh ran up the score in nonconference play against UConn, Hawaii and Colorado State. None of those teams had the offense to question whether or not the Michigan defense would still be the biggest chaos creators in college football after the loss of Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo.
Those answers were clear in present in the narrow victory over Maryland. The Terrapins racked up nearly 400 total yards as five different receiving targets recorded an explosive catch.
Converted wide receiver Mike Sainristil provided the bulk of the Havoc numbers with two tackles for loss and a sack.
Michigan DB Mike Sainristil is quickly adjusting to his new position and making an early impact! pic.twitter.com/mUKITM7AXj
— Robert Cardona (@CARDONAFAM29) September 26, 2022
Despite the heroics of Sainristil, the Michigan defense has struggled to create disruptions for opposing offenses. The Wolverines rank just 72nd in Defensive Havoc, highlighted by just a single forced fumble and an uncharacteristically low ranking in tackles for loss.
The defense is still the standard in college football against the pass, ranking as the top overall coverage team, per PFF.
Quarterback JJ McCarthy continues to receive snaps under center with Cade McNamara's injury. McCarthy cruised in nonconference play, but fumbles — he recorded two against Maryland — continue to limit the Michigan coaches in calling designed runs.
The possible return of Donovan Edwards would simultaneously take the rushing load off Blake Corum and alleviate any designed plays for McCarthy on the ground.
Michigan has been excellent at putting points on the board in sustained drives, averaging 5.3 points on 31 trips past opponents' 40-yard line.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The animadversion of Iowa football has always centered around the offense and the play-calling of coordinator Brian Ferentz. The Hawkeyes always aim to fill the identity of a bruising offensive line as a gateway to a run-first attack.
Asking a quarterback to limit turnover-worthy plays in passing downs is also key to the Iowa offense. Quarterback Spencer Petras did just that against Rutgers, going 11-of-17 for 148 yards in his first game without a turnover-worthy play this season.
With 28 targets on the season, tight end Sam LaPorta will be the biggest threat to Michigan's back seven.
SPENCER PETRAS WHAT A BALL TO SAM LAPORTA IOWA IS IN BUSINESS pic.twitter.com/iUDJXzt33k
— SuperHawkeyeFan (@superhawkeyefan) September 25, 2022
Running back Kaleb Johnson has the most explosive plays from the backfield, averaging 3.3 yards after contact primarily on zone-read runs.
While the Iowa offense continues to piece together minimal production, the Hawkeyes defense has terrorized opponents throughout the month of September.
A top-10 rank in coverage and Line Yards suggests there's no easy path against this defense. A top-20 rank in Havoc is assisted by 24 pass breakups on the season.
For the front seven, defensive interior Lukas Van Ness is the highest-graded player with 10 quarterback hurries on the season.
Michigan vs. Iowa Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Michigan and Iowa match up statistically:
Michigan Offense vs. Iowa Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 5 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 7 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 60 | 20 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 17 | |
| Finishing Drives | 11 | 5 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Iowa Offense vs. Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 122 | 34 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 6 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 122 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 127 | 66 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 1 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 1 | 6 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 4 | 11 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.8 (109) | 29.1 (113) |
| Rush Rate | 60.5% (26) | 58.5% (37) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Michigan vs. Iowa Betting Pick
This Big Ten collision featured two defenses that rarely make mistakes. Both Michigan and Iowa rank top-10 in opponent plays greater than 10 yards. The Wolverines and Hawkeyes are also two of the best teams in terms of tackle grading and coverage, per PFF.
While the bulk of that production came against a soft strength of schedule, the handicap for Iowa is limiting Michigan's rushing attack.
The Wolverines have one of the heaviest rush rates at 61% with a rank of 33rd in run blocking. The Hawkeyes' front seven should have success, pulling a top-10 rank in Defensive Line Yards.
Iowa is the top defense in the nation in terms of limiting the explosive play, and a passing downs rate ranking of third means teams are unsuccessful in early-down attempts.
Michigan sits 60th in pass blocking — an area Iowa can exploit by flushing McCarthy out of the pocket for the purpose of creating fumbles. The Michigan quarterback has a tenured history with ball protection, which Iowa has been happy to expose against previous opponents.
Michigan's offense on Iowa's defense is strength-on-strength, but a potential cover may rely on Iowa's ability to sustain drives and score on offense. The Wolverines have fallen to 66th in Defensive Finishing Drives, alongside a Havoc rank of 72nd.
The Hawkeyes will attempt to run on the Michigan defense with Gavin Williams, Leshon Williams and Johnson.
KALEB JOHNSON RUNS IT HOME 🏠
cc: @HawkeyeFootballpic.twitter.com/sC5JtzpRfc
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 18, 2022
Action Network projects Michigan -10 with a total of 47, as the spread is in line with the current market.
A number of 11 or better gives Iowa value, but there's also value in the totals market. The key numbers in this rank are 45 and 41, each hitting in more than 2.75% of college football games. Considering McCarthy's penchant for putting the football on the carpet, there are defensive and special teams touchdowns in play for Iowa.
Look for Michigan to pound the rock and get a half-dozen drives past the 40-yard line, where the offense ranks 11th in points per scoring opportunity. Iowa will counter with a run game against a Michigan front seven that ranks 62nd in Stuff Rate.
There's nothing pretty about the Iowa offense, but generating enough points to cover and hit over the key of 41 is well within reach.
