Missouri vs. Kansas State Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
For some reason, this old Big 12 rivalry coming back hits me in the feels.
There’s something beautiful about regaining old matchups that were lost due to conference realignment. In this old game, though, there are a lot of new pieces.
Both teams have new quarterbacks this season as Brady Cook takes the field for Missouri while Adrian Martinez starts for Kansas State.
Martinez comes over from another former Big 12 member school in Nebraska, where he had an inconsistent and turnover-filled career. Cook takes over for Connor Bazelak and showed some promise in limited time last season.
Kansas State was the better team last year, but Eli Drinkwitz has recruited well and continues to improve Mizzou’s roster strength.
Missouri Tigers
Tigers Offense
Mizzou’s offense ranked 55th in the nation in Success Rate last year in the difficult SEC. This year they return six of those starters from a year ago and added more talent.
Running back Tyler Badie is the biggest loss after he ran for 1,669 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2021.
Cook takes over as the new quarterback for Mizzou this season. He’s a former three-star recruit from St. Louis entering his sophomore year. Cook struggled in the opener against Louisiana Tech, putting up -0.10 EPA/play. He had much more success on the ground, where he ran seven times for 61 yards and a score.
He’ll be looking over his shoulder if he continues to struggle as Mizzou also has another young quarterback in Tyler Macon and an experienced transfer quarterback in Jack Abraham. Abraham, the former Southern Miss passer, came in last week in mop-up duty after the game was already put away.
Top recruit Luther Burden III looked awesome in his first action for the Tigers last week. If they can feature him more, he may emerge as a game-changer for this offense.
Imagine being one of the top recruits in the country and exceeding every possible expectation in your debut.
That’s what Luther Burden has done tonight. My goodness. Special. #Mizzoupic.twitter.com/edwukOydhk
— Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) September 2, 2022
Tigers Defense
Mizzou's defense was the team's weak link last season. The Tigers’ defense in 2021 ranked 105th in Success Rate overall and was poor in both facets as they ranked 100th against the pass and 107th versus the run.
Eight starters return for the Tigers. With this continuity, Mizzou’s defense should be improved this season.
Kansas State Wildcats
Wildcats Offense
Last season Skylar Thompson led a very good Kansas State offense to an 8-5 record. Chris Klieman has been rebuilding Kansas State toward being a legitimate contender in the Big 12 but will replace his quarterback this season.
In steps Martinez, whom we all know from his tumultuous time at Nebraska. He is an impressive athlete and makes some outstanding plays, but he will also have baffling turnovers in the most crucial moments and cost his team games. If Klieman can reign this in and have Martinez play more efficiently in this offense, Kansas State may even improve this season.
Last year the Wildcats ranked 23rd in offensive Success Rate, coming in at 38th in passing and 14th in rushing.
The good news for that rushing offense is that the electric Deuce Vaughn returns. The future NFL running back gained 1,468 yards and 18 touchdowns last year, averaging an impressive six yards per carry.
Wildcats Defense
The 2021 K-State defense was decent for a Big 12 defense but was just average overall.
The Wildcats ranked 53rd in Success Rate, but this was mostly driven by being 28th against the run. They couldn't stop the pass last season as they ranked 93rd in passing Success Rate on defense.
Seven starters return to this Kansas State defensive unit, including their top tackler Daniel Green and their best pass rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who had 11 sacks last season.
Missouri vs. Kansas State Betting Pick
Kansas State’s offense didn’t look great last week, but South Dakota has one of the best defenses at the FCS level. The Wildcats should have more success this week against a Missouri defense that was putrid last season.
Cook will face his toughest test yet on the other side of the ball. The Louisiana Tech defense kept him in check last week, and the Bulldogs were not good last year and are transitioning to a new scheme. Against a tough Kansas State passing defense, he will struggle to push the ball downfield on Saturday.
If Martinez plays better than he did last week, Kansas State will move the ball consistently and cover this number at home.
