Navy vs Charlotte Odds
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -164 |
| Charlotte Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +136 |
Oh, Biff.. we missed you last week.
Coming off of a bye, the Charlotte 49ers will look to get back in the win column as they host the Navy Midshipmen.
Coach Poggi is having a rough start in his first season with Charlotte, but he continues to be a content machine for die-hard college football fans. If you haven't seen any of his press conferences or sideline interviews, please do yourself a favor and tune in this Saturday afternoon.
Navy looks to build on last week's victory over North Texas, entering this matchup as 3-point favorites. Let's dive deep into this matchup and uncover some betting value.
Navy Midshipmen
HC Brian Newberry is trying to mimic Army and transition out of the triple-option offense, but unfortunately, they have yet to find any success. This may take another year or two, and then we can finally back service academy overs in the yearly Army/Navy clash.
As it pertains to this matchup, I'm surprised to see how well Charlotte's rush defense has held up this year. This is a significant concern for this matchup, given the Midshipmen still run the ball 79% of the time.
This is still your typical snail service academy offense, so the clock should move quickly. Navy is also 56th in line yards, so despite Charlotte's stingy run defense, I think they should be able to get a push with their offensive line.
However, I could see this offense struggling to put points on the board solely because they are 122nd in Finishing Drives. This isn't an elite Charlotte team, but this could be a huge difference-maker in this matchup.
Defensively, Navy is in a position to benefit from this particular matchup. This defense allowed 473 yards to North Texas last week, but they face a Charlotte team that can't find their way on offense.
I'm curious to see who starts at quarterback for Charlotte, but Jalon Jones has started the last two games and is more of a runner than Trexler Ivey. If that's the case, we're in for a snail's race filled with methodical drives and few points.
Navy's sole defensive strength remains in the trenches, ranking 41st in defensive Line Yards. Shockingly, they are 132nd in PFF's Tackling grades and 106th in PFF's Coverage grades.
Usually, this would be a red flag. But it shouldn't play much of a factor in this matchup. I don't see any way this game becomes a track meet filled with explosive plays.
Charlotte 49ers
Just like Navy, Charlotte loves to take its time in between plays. The 49ers are 115th in seconds per play, and with Jones expected to start, I don't see this changing.
Biff did have the bye week to prepare for the service academy offense, which could help them defensively. Unfortunately, Charlotte can't fix its offense overnight.
The 49ers rank 116th in Finishing Drives and among the bottom 35 teams in both Rushing and Passing Success rates.
As mentioned, Charlotte's rush defense is solid, but the unit is lacking in other areas. The 49ers rank among the bottom 40 teams in Havoc generated and Passing Success Rate allowed.
We broke down Navy's struggles on the offensive side of the ball, so I'm not too concerned about Charlotte's defense holding up. However, it's always scary when a service academy offense battles a defense unfamiliar with the triple-option.
But with this particular Navy team, I'm unbothered. I think Charlotte will go toe-to-toe with this Navy rushing attack and turn this matchup into a grinder.
Navy vs Charlotte
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Navy and Charlotte match up statistically:
Navy Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 56 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 133 | 106 | |
| Havoc | 29 | 122 | |
| Finishing Drives | 112 | 78 | |
| Quality Drives | 66 | 122 | |
Charlotte Offense vs. Navy Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 109 |  |
| Havoc | 128 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 117 | 92 | |
| Quality Drives | 116 | 64 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 132 | 122 |
| PFF Coverage | 106 | 103 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 99 | 121 |
| Middle 8 | 100 | 75 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.4 (123) | 29.9 (115) |
| Rush Rate | 79.0% (2) | 57.9% (47) |
Navy vs Charlotte
Betting Pick & Prediction
Unless Ivey starts for Charlotte, which seems unlikely, I'm betting the Under.
I would normally lean towards backing Charlotte in this spot off a bye, but I think this total sitting above 42 has lots of value.
As mentioned, both offenses are slow-paced and lousy. This has all of the makings of a rock fight, which is strange to say when speaking about a Charlotte defense.
But Charlotte's rush defense is fine, and I don't like Navy's quarterback situation. Tai Lavatai is the last starting quarterback on the roster, given Blake Horvath and Tadris Gleaton are out for the remainder of the season (injury and academics, respectively).
If something were to happen to Lavatai, Navy would be in big trouble.
I have no idea which offense will likely show up in this spot, so I'll stick with taking the Under here and watch the clock run all afternoon.
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