New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 +104 | 38.5 -108o / -112u | -275 |
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -128 | 38.5 -108o / -112u | +220 |
New Mexico and New Mexico State have been playing football longer than New Mexico has been a state. In fact, prior to statehood in 1912, the series was tied 3-3.
Saturday will mark the 112th meeting in a series that, since 1938, has been almost completely dominated by the Lobos. New Mexico holds a 73-33-5 lead in the series and is currently on a three-game winning streak. The Aggies have not beaten the Lobos since 2017.
However, Saturday will be the first time in four years that the game will be played in Las Cruces. And the Lobos come into this game on a bit of a skid, having lost two games in a row, both of which ended on pick-sixes in the final minute.
New Mexico State, meanwhile, has been on a skid for quite some time, winning more than three games just once in a season since 2012. Head coach Doug Martin is in his first year with the Aggies and is off to a 1-5 start.
On the other side, Danny Gonzales is into his third year and New Mexico is 7-18 since his arrival.
Saturday's game will also have a special broadcast, Learfield. The multimedia rights partner for the Aggies, will broadcast the game in the Navajo language on 107.3 FM KCYZ, based out of Crownpoint, N.M.
The Navajo language broadcast will also stream on The Varsity Network App. This year's Rio Grande Rivalry basketball game will be broadcast in Navajo, as well.
The Navajo Nation is the largest U.S. Indian Tribe, consisting of nearly 200,000 members. The reservation includes approximately 27,000 square miles. Its boundaries extend from northwestern New Mexico into northeastern Arizona and southeastern Utah.
Can the Aggies pull off the upset in Las Cruces?
New Mexico Lobos
Lobos quarterback Miles Kendrick has been without some key players on the offense in their last two losses, but all are expected to be back this week.
That won't be the only major change on the offense, though.
Offensive coordinator Derek Warehime was fired following the New Mexico loss to Wyoming last week. Heath Ridenour will take his place — he became the quarterbacks coach in January and is one of the most respected football coaches in the state of New Mexico.
On defense, the Lobos have been impressive, holding teams to just 22.8 points per game. Realistically, they are even better than that number, as 21 points have been scored against the UNM offense and special teams unit.
New Mexico State Aggies
The Aggies' offense is struggling, averaging just 265.5 yards and 14 points per contest. Now matching up against the 27th-ranked team in the country in terms of Finishing Drives, I think things could get even worse.
On the defensive side of the ball, they haven't been much better, allowing 390.5 yards and 32.3 points per game. They have been at their worst when it comes to defending the rush, allowing opposing teams to rack up 198.2 rushing yards per contest while averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
The Lobos rank fifth nationally when it comes to Rush Rate, and while New Mexico hasn't found much success this season, I think this can be a breakout game for it on the ground.
New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how New Mexico and New Mexico State match up statistically:
New Mexico Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 116 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 102 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 105 | 128 | |
| Havoc | 130 | 127 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
New Mexico State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 108 | 110 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 127 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 76 | 118 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 109 | 27 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 104 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 20 | 119 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 96 | 112 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.0 (127) | 28.4 (103) |
| Rush Rate | 66.7% (5) | 58.1% (32) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Betting Pick
Both teams have struggled so far this season, but I think New Mexico takes care of business on the road Saturday night.
The Lobos have been one of the best in the country when it comes to turnovers, with 13 so far on the year. NMST, meanwhile, can't seem to stop giving them up, throwing 10 interceptions and losing three fumbles so far this season.
New Mexico State also ranks 120th in the nation when it comes to time of possession. Facing a Lobos team that gives up just 33.82% of third-down conversion attempts, this could be one of the most lopsided possession games of the season.
Back the Lobos to continue the steak as a touchdown favorite or less.
