North Texas vs. UTSA Odds
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -118 | 72.5 -108o / -112u | +275 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -104 | 72.5 -108o / -112u | -350 |
Is it reasonable to call these two in-state rivals?
Maybe. But if we can, the Mean Green have dominated the rivalry.
North Texas has won four of the last five matchups and even ruined UTSA's undefeated 2021 season. UNT has dropped 45 points on UTSA twice in the last three years.
Either way, this game is monstrously important. Whoever wins this game will have sole control of first place in the C-USA standings.
But these are vastly different teams from past years. UTSA is an impressive two-way team with a Heisman candidate at quarterback. North Texas has major defensive issues and finds itself as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.
But with the total sitting over 70 and first place on the line, this is sure to be a highly entertaining game.
How are we betting on it?
North Texas Mean Green
North Texas is getting destroyed in the front seven.
The Mean Green are allowing 4.6 YPC while ranking outside the top 120 in Rush Success Rate Allowed and Rush PPA Allowed. While the linebacking unit is somewhat experienced, the defensive line is depleted and getting rocked.
The games against Memphis and UNLV proved that North Texas has some issues that need fixing.
But this offense can run the ball as well as any team in college football. DeAndre Torrey is gone, but the duo of Oscar Adaway III and Ayo Adeyi have replaced the missing production seamlessly.
However, it's easy to average six YPC when your offensive line is the best in the C-USA. This unit can move mountains. Look at the hole the unit opened up for Adeyi here:
𝟏 𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲. 𝟗𝟐 𝐲𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬. @ayoadeyi 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐳𝐨𝐧𝐞.#GMG 🟢🦅 pic.twitter.com/h68HC23kmJ
— North Texas Football (@MeanGreenFB) October 15, 2022
North Texas finished the game against Louisiana Tech with 475 rushing yards and four scores.
It'd be nice if Austin Aune were an elite quarterback, but he largely gets the job done. He relies on his rushing game, and coach Seth Littrell is fine with that. It's led North Texas to this spot, where the Mean Green control their own path to a C-USA championship game.
UTSA Roadrunners
Frank Harris is working with one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in the league.
But that doesn't matter because he can make every play.
Not only did Barnes show up, but so did Frank Harris 🥵
Harris finished with 22/35, 303 yards & 2 TD!
His 2nd straight game without a turnover & UTSA’s 4th straight win 📈pic.twitter.com/zOvo505Y9g
— Redshirt Heisman (@TasteOfSport) October 15, 2022
Harris has tossed for 2,300 yards and rushed for an extra 244, picking up 20 touchdowns along the way. He has personally accounted for close to 75% of UTSA's total offense.
I'm enamored with Harris' ability to carry this team. The team is averaging just 3.9 YPC, but Harris has willed the Roadrunners by producing the nation's eighth-best Passing Downs Success Rate.
The Roadrunners can play some defense. They've been extremely successful in Standard Downs and against the run, although they've had troubles with explosive plays.
I'm still a little worried about the secondary. The 'Runners rank outside the top 90 in PFF's Coverage and Tackling grades, and they're 91st in Pass EPA per play allowed.
It's a lesser experienced unit that can get shredded.
North Texas vs. UTSA Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Texas and UTSA match up statistically:
North Texas Offense vs. UTSA Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 11 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 68 | 35 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 95 | 35 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 28 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
UTSA Offense vs. North Texas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 126 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 130 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 85 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 104 | 45 | |
| Havoc | 21 | 118 | |
| Finishing Drives | 32 | 110 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 93 |
| PFF Coverage | 76 | 98 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 20 | 97 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.5 (18) | 22.7 (12) |
| Rush Rate | 59.2% (26) | 48.7% (92) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
North Texas vs. UTSA Betting Pick
UTSA's defense has been effective at keeping opposing offenses off schedule. But it's done so while sacrificing the big play.
UTSA is 14th in the nation in Success Rate Allowed and 128th in Explosiveness Allowed. It explains why its EPA numbers are so poor on defense.
That presents us with an interesting matchup against North Texas. The Mean Green can fall behind schedule, but they are 13th in the nation in Explosiveness. That explains why the Green's EPA numbers are so solid on defense.
North Texas is going to produce a few huge plays in this one. It also helps that UNT runs at the 18th-highest pace in the nation, giving it maximum opportunities to create the big play.
Meanwhile, expect Harris and UTSA to get whatever it wants on North Texas's defense. The Roadrunners are true to their name, running at the 12th-highest pace nationally.
This number is scary, but big totals don't scare us. Life's too short to bet the under, anyway.
