Oregon State vs. Utah Odds
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -106 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +340 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -114 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Oh, what could have been.
Utah was my sleeper pick to run the Pac-12 standings and grab the fourth spot in the College Football Playoff. While the Utes' playoff hopes are still on life support, it looks bleak since they dropped their season opener to Florida.
Oregon State, on the other hand, could have been a huge help to my USC season win total under — in my opinion, the Trojans are a fraud team that the public loves.
Can Oregon State take Utah to the brink as it did with USC as a sizeable underdog? Let's find out.
Oregon State Beavers
If you were an Oregon State bettor last weekend, at least you were compensated for watching that abysmal offensive performance.
Normally one of the better units in the nation, Oregon State couldn't help but fall for the USC turnover luck box. Quarterback Chance Nolan threw for 167 yards, zero touchdowns and four interceptions.
That was an eye-popping performance, as the USC defense is soft as Charmin.
The Beavers will have their hands full this time around, as the Utes' defense is far superior in comparison to the Trojans.
While the offense is strong for the Beavers, this team has some serious flaws — mainly the defensive line.
The secondary has held its own, ranking 27th in Defensive Pass Success Rate. However, the defensive line has been little to no help for the unit as a whole.
Generating little to no pressure, the line will be hard pressed to limit the Utes' offensive line.
Utah Utes
While Utah won the box score against Florida, it lost because of its inept performance in the red zone. I thought that was just an unfortunate result, but it turns out that has been a common theme for the Utes so far this season (102nd in Finishing Drives).
If Utah wants to keep its playoff hopes alive — if it even has any — then it needs to do two things: Win out and win in dominate fashion.
So far so good, as Utah has outscored its last three opponents 142-27 since the Florida loss.
Cameron Rising has been elite, throwing for 954 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions this season. He should find himself with extra time in the pocket, as Oregon State ranks near dead last at getting to the quarterback.
Pay dirt on the flea-flicker!
Cam Rising finds Dalton Kincaid down the sideline
UTAH 7 | 0 ASU #Pac12 | @espn@ESPN700pic.twitter.com/ofUHmpkXag
— Porter Larsen (@Larsen_ESPN) September 25, 2022
Utah possess a balanced offensive attack with stud Tavion Thomas in the backfield.
He was tamed last week with a 60-yard, zero-touchdown performance. He is poised for a big game this time out, though, as Oregon State is below average at defending the run, ranking 99th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 81st in Defensive Line Yards.
While Utah is one of the more complete teams in football, the defense will be tested by Oregon State's offense — especially on the ground.
Utah's defense has an elite back end, but the line has been lackluster. Both will need to be corrected if the Utes want to avoid the upset.
Oregon State vs. Utah Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon State and Utah match up statistically:
Oregon State Offense vs. Utah Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 35 | 36 |  |
| Line Yards | 51 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 14 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 27 | 93 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 51 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Utah Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 39 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 27 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 48 | 128 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 102 | 28 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 41 | 71 |
| PFF Coverage | 16 | 50 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 127 | 23 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.1 (112) | 28.6 (108) |
| Rush Rate | 57.4% (41) | 57.7% (39) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Oregon State vs. Utah Betting Pick
Utah -9.5 was the first bet I made this week when numbers opened up. Sadly that number is gone, as it has surpassed -10.
With most of the value squeezed out, I will now shift my focus toward the total.
I'm specifically looking at the under, as both teams possess great pass-defense units that both Nolan and Rising may struggle with.
Should the teams lean towards the run instead — with both having above-average rush rates in the nation and slow play rates at near 30 seconds per play — we will see the clock bleed throughout the game.
I still expect Utah to handle Oregon State, but the Utes' failures past the 40-yard-line can't go unnoticed. That's another key component to our under ticket getting to the window.
Take the under at 55 or higher and make a live add on Utah at anything less than 10.
