Rutgers vs Indiana Odds
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
The calendar still reads October, yet Rutgers (5-2) is just a lone win away from celebrating bowl eligibility — what a time to be alive.
With a victory this weekend over Indiana, the Scarlet Knights are poised for their highest non-COVID finish in the Big Ten East standings (fifth) since 2017. A win over Maryland to punctuate the season could even propel Rutgers to fourth, something it hasn’t accomplished since its first year in the conference (2014).
Indiana (2-4), on the other hand, looks destined to finish last in the East for the second time in the past three seasons. The Hoosiers have been outscored 96-24 in their two most recent games as the hot-seat rumors swirl surrounding Tom Allen.
Despite the difference in records, Vegas sees these teams as being separated by fewer than seven points. Are the Hoosiers actually on par with the Scarlet Knights, or can Rutgers snag its sixth win of the season before Halloween?
Find our Rutgers vs Indiana Pick & Prediction below.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Your eyes do not deceive you: The Rutgers Scarlet Knights need to win just one of their next five games to become bowl eligible for the first time since their inaugural Big Ten season in 2014 (a five-win Rutgers qualified for a bowl in 2021 via APR regulations).
With November matchups against Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State and Maryland, Saturday marks what will likely be the final time this season that Rutgers is a favorite to pick up that requisite win.
The Scarlet Knights shockingly came back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit last weekend against Michigan State to emerge with a 5-2 record. It was so shocking because this is a Rutgers offense that isn’t designed to come back from a seven-point hole, much less three touchdowns.
Special teams and Michigan State ineptitude fortunately did most of the work.
Despite Rutgers’ strong start to the season, its run-first offense isn’t exactly setting any records. Quarterback Gavin Wimsatt is 10th in the Big Ten with 156.4 yards passing per game, and his 50.9 completion percentage is a conference-worst among qualified passers.
Rutgers has, instead, been more than happy to just run the ball down its opponents’ throats to modest success. The Scarlet Knights rank 13th in Rush Rate (60.3%), and take their time doing it – Rutgers is 12th in Seconds per Play. Kyle Monangai’s 90.7 rushing yards per game are the second most in the Big Ten.
While the Scarlet Knights' offense excels at running the ball, their defense can't stop the run. The Rutgers defense is 123rd in Rush Success Rate Allowed, and both Michigan and Wisconsin ran for over 200 yards against the Scarlet Knights.
Indiana has virtually no ground game to speak of, so the Rutgers secondary must step up like it has through six games. The Scarlet Knights are fifth in the nation with 160.6 passing yards allowed per game.
Indiana Hoosiers
The thermometer outside is dropping, but the temperature on Allen’s seat is quickly rising. Indiana surrendered 52 unanswered points at Michigan last week to drop to 2-4 on the year and 8-22 since the start of the 2021 season.
The lack of anything resembling a consistent offense has been the biggest liability to date. Indiana’s 18.5 points per game rank 125th in the country – even worse than Iowa.
The Hoosiers are squarely in the “if you have two quarterbacks, you have none” zone, as both Tayven Jackson and Brendan Sorsby have split reps in each of the last two games. Allen said they'll stick with only one guy going forward, but that information won't be revealed until Saturday.
Indiana’s passing game, while tepid at best, is actually the strength of this offense because the running game has only eclipsed the 100-yard mark once against FBS competition this season. The Hoosiers are near last in Rush Success Rate (129th) and are tied with Northwestern for the fewest yards per carry (3.1) in the Big Ten.
Indiana’s defense opened the season pretty well by limiting Ohio State to 23 points and 380 yards, but its gotten worse as the season has gone on.
The Hoosiers have allowed more than 400 yards of offense in each of their last four games, with Michigan and Maryland combining for 96 points.
Slowing the Rutgers running backs will be Indiana’s No. 1 task for a defense that's just 112th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 110th in Line Yards. The Hoosiers managed to hold Michigan to its second-lowest rushing total for the season (163), but the Wolverines still ran for three touchdowns.
Rutgers vs Indiana
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Rutgers and Indiana match up statistically:
Rutgers Offense vs. Indiana Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 116 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 48 | 90 | |
| Quality Drives | 50 | 96 | |
Indiana Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 126 |  |
| Line Yards | 82 | 97 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 41 | |
| Quality Drives | 95 | 12 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 1 | 49 |
| PFF Coverage | 15 | 90 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 68 | 63 |
| Middle 8 | 86 | 132 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.8 (116) | 28.5 (95) |
| Rush Rate | 60.3% (13) | 52.3% (81) |
Rutgers vs Indiana
Betting Pick & Prediction
The vibes surrounding these teams couldn’t be any more different, albeit the strength of schedule hasn’t been an even playing field.
Indiana has had the misfortune of playing Ohio State, Michigan and a 6-1 Louisville team, while Rutgers has only played the Wolverines – which resulted in a blowout loss.
That said, Indiana needed quadruple overtime to knock off Akron earlier this year, and without that game, it’d be winless against FBS competition. The quarterback position is in a state of flux, and the Hoosiers don’t have the type of run game that's capable of exploiting Rutgers’ weak front seven.
Not to mention this run defense has had only a week to recover from a physical Michigan game.
Rutgers coach Greg Schiano likely recognizes this is Rutgers’ last real chance to punch a ticket to a bowl game. Consequently, he’ll have his team ready to jump out to an early lead and win by at least a touchdown.
