San Diego State vs. Nevada Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 35.5 -114o / -106u | -265 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 35.5 -114o / -106u | +215 |
The Nevada Wolf Pack return to Reno looking to end their losing streak. Nevada lost its fifth game in a row last weekend on the island, as it couldn't get anything going against the Rainbow Warriors.
San Diego State, meanwhile, enters this game coming off of a bye week, currently at 3-3 on the season. The Aztecs' last game before their bye week came against Hawaii as well, a game in which they pulled out a 16-14 win.
Neither team has been particularly impressive so far. San Diego State has just scraped out wins, I'm not sure they can keep that up.
Can the Wolf Pack finally end their losing streak? Or will the Aztecs' extra week off to prepare keep them in the hunt for the top of the Mountain West?
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State's run game has been solid so far this season, but the same can't be said for its passing attack. The Aztecs are completing just 48.9% of passing attempts while averaging just 108 passing yards per game. Both stats put them second-to-last in the Mountain West this season.
However, things could change this week, as Jalen Mayden starts under center instead of Braxton Burmeister for the Aztecs. Mayden earned the starting spot after completing 24-of-36 passes for 322 yards against Hawaii their last time out.
On the defensive side of the ball, San Diego State ranks fifth in the Mountain West, holding opponents to just 23.8 points per contest. I
t hasn't been particularly great at defending the pass or the rush, but it's among the best when it comes to fourth-down stops and red-zone defense. The Aztecs allow opposing teams to convert fourth downs on just 20% of attempts.
They're also 40th in the nation in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Nevada Wolf Pack
If Nevada wants to stand a chance against the Aztecs, it has to make some major improvements — first and foremost with its run defense.
The Wolf Pack allowed Hawaii to run for 223 yards and average 4.8 yards per carry. The Aztecs' run game is considerably better than the Rainbow Warriors, and they've leaned more on the ground since firing their offensive coordinator earlier in the season.
On the offensive side of the ball, Nevada seems to lack an identity, ranking 118th in passing offense and 99th in rush offense. I think the Pack have talented players, but they seem to go back and forth on how they want to use them.
Just last week against Hawaii, two of their best players, Toa Taua and Devonte Lee, combined for just 20 carries for 25 yards. Taua is a top-10 rusher in the Mountain West, and Lee could be as well if they gave him more opportunities. The two of them combining for just 25 carries is insane.
The Wolf Pack do rank ninth in the nation when it comes to turnovers — something they'll need to produce in this matchup if they want to slow down the Aztecs.
San Diego State vs. Nevada Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Nevada match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. Nevada Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 124 | |
| Line Yards | 104 | 95 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 22 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 50 | 112 | |
| Havoc | 119 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 60 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Nevada Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 113 | 102 | |
| Pass Success | 114 | 74 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 89 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 112 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 40 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 128 | 116 |
| PFF Coverage | 52 | 26 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 4 | 19 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (112) | 25.6 (43) |
| Rush Rate | 61.5% (16) | 54.8% (57) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
San Diego State vs. Nevada Betting Pick
This could be the turning point for a Nevada team that has struggled so far this year. If it can find its identity as an offense, it could put up a fight against the Aztecs.
Unfortunately for the Wolf Pack, I just don't see it happening. The Aztecs' run game should find success and control the clock against a Wolf Pack defense that ranks 124th in Defensive Rushing Success.
Both teams have struggled when it comes to Finishing Drives, but the Aztecs should be fresh coming off of the bye week. And Nevada is considerably worse when it comes to red-zone defense, allowing a score on 84.2% of trips.
Back San Diego State to cover the spread as high as a 7-point favorite on Saturday night. However, I wouldn't back the Aztecs at anything above the key number of seven.
Pick: San Diego State -7 or Better |
