San Jose State vs. Wyoming Odds
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -114 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -137 |
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -106 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +114 |
San Jose State will open up its Mountain West league schedule by traveling up to Laramie on a short week to take on 3-2 Wyoming.
The Cowboys have already played two more games than the Spartans in an early-season scheduling oddity.
I believe one of these sides has value, but let's quickly profile each team before digging into this matchup from a betting perspective.
San Jose State Spartans
In 2020, the Spartans came out of nowhere to finish a shortened regular season with an undefeated record. They then went on to win the conference title game.
However, they couldn't back up those results last season, finishing with a very disappointing 5-7 record.
It's a much different team this year, with many key positions getting filled via the transfer portal. It all starts with quarterback Chevan Cordeiro (from Hawaii) and a number of talented options on the outside at wide receiver.
The offensive line remains a work in the progress, and the running game is almost non-existent (sub-three yards per carry as a team) — as it always seems to be with SJSU.
However, the passing game has promise, especially as Cordeiro gets more comfortable in a new scheme and builds chemistry with a new group of receivers.
After struggling mightily in the season opener against FCS Portland State, the Spartans looked better in a road game at Auburn in which they actually led at the half.
Then last week, they seemingly took a major step forward in a blowout win (34-6) over Western Michigan. The Broncos finished with eight completions for 71 yards.
While Cordeiro brings potential for offensive growth, the Spartans will go as their defense goes in 2022. It's a very experienced unit with a particularly strong defensive line.
That line is led by two tremendous defensive ends in preseason MWC Defensive Player of the Year Cade Hall and First Team All-MWC selection Viliami Fehoko. They both surround third-year starting nose tackle Lando Grey.
Behind them, Kyle Harmon, who finished with 135 tackles last year, leads a very experienced group of linebackers.
The secondary also returns a few experienced pieces and added USC transfer Chase Williams, who has plugged one of the holes at safety very effectively so far.
This profiles as one of the best defenses in the wide open Mountain West.
Wyoming Cowboys
Most expected Wyoming to have a rough season after its roster got gutted by graduation and the transfer portal in the offseason. Those departures left the Cowboys with one of the least experienced rosters in the country.
Statistically speaking, it has been a rough go on both sides of the ball.
The Pokes rank outside the top-100 in both offensive and defensive EPA.
So, how do they have three wins?
Well, they pulled off a huge upset at Air Force, but Craig Bohl’s bunch always does an excellent job defending the triple option. Plus, they benefited from a few key Falcons starters missing that game due to injury.
Even so, Air Force still led late and had a 70% post-game win expectancy.
Their other wins came against Northern Colorado (who cares) and Tulsa in double overtime (after trailing by 10 in the fourth) in a game they were out-gained 521-399.
As a result of those two come-from-behind victories, Wyoming sits at 3-2. However, the Cowboys are much closer to the team we saw get dominated at Illinois to open the season — at least, in my opinion.
Bohl is one of the most underrated coaches in college football, but there's only so many rabbits he can pull out of his hat with the lack of talent on this roster.
From an on-field perspective, the defense ranks outside the top 100 in almost every metric, from tackling to coverage.
The very inexperienced offense looks like a typical Wyoming offense.
The Cowboys play at a methodical pace and lean on their ground game, led by running back Titus Swen. Utah State transfer Andrew Peasley also provides a boost in that department with his running ability.
San Jose State vs. Wyoming Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Jose State and Wyoming match up statistically:
San Jose State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 91 | |
| Line Yards | 117 | 94 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 72 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 106 | 123 | |
| Havoc | 89 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 96 | 93 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Wyoming Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 54 | 64 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 50 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 117 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 7 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 20 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 73 | 130 |
| PFF Coverage | 61 | 106 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 95 | 47 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (77) | 28.5 (106) |
| Rush Rate | 45.0% (110) | 58.6% (35) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
San Jose State vs. Wyoming Betting Pick
Coming into the season, I projected Wyoming as one of the worst teams in the country after a mass departure of talent and experience via graduation and the transfer portal.
The Pokes have exceeded expectations so far with a trio of wins, but every single underlying metric suggests this team will still struggle mightily in league play.
San Jose State can't really run the ball against anybody, so don't expect much on the ground here. However, Cordeiro should find enough success through the air against a raw secondary.
Also, the Spartans' defensive front should dominate the line of scrimmage enough for them to pick up this conference win on the road.
For what it's worth, Cordeiro shredded this Wyoming defense in Laramie with Hawaii last year. He threw for over 300 yards and added another 86 on the ground with four total touchdowns.
I expect another decent day out of the signal caller, who seems to be getting more comfortable in this new scheme with each passing week.
Also, the wind, which is always worth watching for Wyoming home games, looks like it won't be a major factor by kickoff, which really helps the pass-heavy Spartans — who also can't run the ball — in this particular matchup.
