Toledo vs. Buffalo Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 56.5 -114o / -106u | -280 |
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 56.5 -114o / -106u | +225 |
Buffalo hosts the Toledo Rockets in a matchup of the two early-season MAC division leaders. This may turn out to be a conference championship preview.
Toledo enters this game with a 5-2 record and is riding a four-game winning streak. The Rockets are 4-3 against the spread and have gone over in four games.
Buffalo has a 4-3 record this season and has won four consecutive games. The Bulls are 5-1-1 against the spread and have gone under in four games.
Winds may play an impact during this afternoon affair. The forecast calls for winds ranging from 11.7 to 14.4 mph with no precipitation. With some crosswinds forecasted, both the passing game and special teams could be impacted.
Toledo Rockets
Jason Candle's Rockets sit atop the MAC West division with a 5-2 record.
The Rockets are averaging 38.4 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. They have a 44% Success Rate and score 4.88 points per opportunity. They've done a strong job limiting Havoc at just 13%, and average 25.4 seconds per play.
In his second season as the starter, Dequan Finn has taken some steps in the right direction. He's completing 62% of his passes for an average of 8.2 yards per attempt. He's thrown 17 touchdowns and five interceptions.
And as a runner, he leads the team in rushing with 455 yards and six touchdowns.
As a team, Toledo has a 45% Passing Success Rate and has averaged 3.1 20+ yard passes per game.
Unlike the last few years, there's no bell-cow running back in the Rockets' backfield despite the team averaging 40.7 rushes per game.
Finn leads the team with 71 rush attempts, and three running backs have attempted at least 50 rushes.
The Rockets have a 44% Rushing Success Rate and average 4.7 yards per attempt. Their offensive line has created 3.1 Line Yards per attempt, but has allowed a 16.5% Stuff Rate.
The Rockets have allowed 26.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play. They allow a 39% Success Rate and 4.26 points per opportunity. They rank 21st nationally with just 22 plays over 20 yards allowed for the year.
Their 16% Havoc rate ranks 86th nationally.
The biggest note when it comes to this matchup is that the Rockets allow just a 36% Rushing Success Rate, which will be critical against this Bulls offense that ranks 22nd in the nation in rush attempts per game.
Buffalo Bulls
Maurice Linguist's team is showing some improvement in his second year as head coach. After struggling in non-conference play, Linguist has the Bulls atop the MAC with a 3-0 record in conference play.
The Bulls are averaging 30.4 points per game and 5.3 yards per play. They have a 44% Success Rate and score an average of 4.23 points per opportunity. They've allowed a 20% Havoc rate and average 26.5 seconds per play.
Cole Snyder is completing 61% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt. He's struggled some with interceptions and has thrown five compared to his 11 touchdowns.
Buffalo has a 46% Passing Success Rate and averages 2.7 20+ yard passes per game.
The Bulls' offense leans heavily on the running game, averaging 41.7 rushes per game.
Mike Washington and Ron Cook have evenly split the workload, with each receiving more than 95 rush attempts. As a team, the Bulls have a 43% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line has generated 2.9 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 15.2% Stuff Rate.
This Bulls' defense has improved since their early-season struggles. They've allowed 24.4 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. They allow a 40% Success Rate and 3.52 points per opportunity.
One reason for their improvements is that they've generated Havoc on 23% of plays. The Bulls have been prone to allowing big plays, with an average of 5.7 20+ yard plays allowed per game.
Toledo vs. Buffalo Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Buffalo match up statistically:
Toledo Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 23 | |
| Line Yards | 49 | 47 |  |
| Pass Success | 52 | 86 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 99 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 42 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Buffalo Offense vs. Toledo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 112 | 53 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 80 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 69 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 73 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 46 | 104 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 100 |
| PFF Coverage | 33 | 90 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 108 | 56 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.4 (40) | 26.5 (68) |
| Rush Rate | 60.8% (19) | 55.6% (52) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Toledo vs. Buffalo Betting Pick
It appears that sharps and the public are in agreement on this game. As of this writing, 75% of bets and 83% of the money are backing the Bulls to cover the 7.5-point spread.
Buffalo has covered its last four games, including one outright win as an underdog.
Both of these teams want to run the ball on offense, and they'll be running into the respective strengths of the opposing defenses.
Based on recent results, these two teams appear to be closer to even than the line would suggest, which is why I'm taking the points with the underdogs.
Pick: Buffalo +7.5 (Play to +7) |
