Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
It's not a Tuesday night game, but it's still MACtion when Toledo travels to Northern Illinois. This matchup of division rivals will have a big impact on the conference standings.
Toledo enters this game with a 3-2 record. The Rockets bounced back from their back-to-back losses with a win over Central Michigan. They are 2-3 against the spread and have gone under in three games this season.
Northern Illinois comes into this game with a 1-4 record, losing each of its last four games. The Huskies are 2-3 against the spread and have gone over in every game this year.
It will be a windy day in DeKalb, Illinois with winds from 12.5 to 15.1 miles per hour. These winds may cause some difficulties in the passing game and on special teams, which could result in a lower-scoring game.
Toledo Rockets
A home game against a struggling Central Michigan team was just what Toledo needed to stop its two-game skid.
Now the Rockets will travel to Northern Illinois for their second conference game of the season. The Rockets have averaged 33 points per game and 5.8 yards per play. They have a 41% Success Rate and average 4.44 points per opportunity. Their 25.3 seconds per play ranks 34th nationally in pace.
Dequan Finn has completed 59.2% of his passes for an average of 7.4 yards per attempt. He's struggled with protecting the football (five interceptions), but three of his INTs came in a particularly bad San Diego State game.
Finn's mobility has proven to be his greatest asset, as he's averaged 6.9 yards per rush and has added five touchdowns on the ground to his eight passing scores.
As a team, Toledo has a 41% Passing Success Rate and has completed 2.8 20+ yard passes per game.
Finn is the leading rusher for the Rockets with 336 yards, but three other players have eclipsed 100 yards rushing for the season.
As a team, the Rockets are averaging 4.8 yards per rush and have a 42% Rushing Success Rate. Their line has created 3.13 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed an 18.4% Stuff Rate.
Despite the game where it allowed 77 points, Toledo's defense is allowing an average of 24.2 points per game. The Rockets have allowed a 35% Success Rate and 5.0 yards per play.
They've struggled some to close out drives with an average of four points per opportunity allowed, and that's in large part due to their inability to create Havoc with just a 15% Havoc rate.
One key area of success for this defense is their 32% Rushing Success Rate Allowed. Against this Northern Illinois team that has leaned on the running game, this may prove to be critical.
Northern Illinois Huskies
After a 9-5 campaign in 2021, things haven't gone according to plan for the defending MAC champion in 2022. The Huskies are averaging 31.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. They have a 45% Success Rate, score 4.68 points per opportunity and average a methodical 28.0 seconds per play.
Ethan Hampton has been under center for the Huskies for their last three games due to the injury to Rocky Lombardi. Lombardi was a game-time decision last week, and there appears to be some optimism that he'll return this week.
As a team, the Huskies are completing 61.2% of their passes for 7.8 yards per attempt. They have a 49% Passing Success Rate and have averaged 2.8 20+ yard passes per game.
The Huskies have run the ball on 59% of their offensive plays. Leading their backfield has been Harrison Waylee with 84 carries for 445 yards and four touchdowns.
As a team, they have a 42% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line has generated 3.16 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 12% Stuff Rate.
The Northern Illinois defense has allowed 35.6 points per game through five games. The Huskies have allowed a 47% Success Rate and 5.1 points per opportunity. They have only generated Havoc on 12% of plays and they've allowed five plays over 20 yards per game.
Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Northern Illinois match up statistically:
Toledo Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 84 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 82 |  |
| Pass Success | 65 | 127 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 108 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 98 | 118 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 129 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Northern Illinois Offense vs. Toledo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 74 | 29 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 57 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 68 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 29 | 86 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 86 | 107 |
| PFF Coverage | 16 | 125 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 108 | 116 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (34) | 28.0 (97) |
| Rush Rate | 58.7% (30) | 58.9% (27) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Toledo vs. Northern Illinois Betting Pick
This matchup appears to be split between the sharps and the public. Only 18% of bets have come in on Northern Illinois, but those bets represent 66% of the money.
And according to our PRO Report, both sharp and big-money bets have come in for the Huskies.
My preferred play, however, is to take the public side with Toledo to cover as a road favorite, and I'd take the Rockets all the way up to a touchdown.
Toledo's offensive advantages — particularly accentuated by a mobile quarterback — will be too much for a struggling NIU defense. The possible return of Lombardi will likely be hindered by high winds and Toledo's advantages with its run defense will prove too much for NIU.
Pick: Toledo -5.5 (Play up to 7)
