Oregon vs UCLA Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 70 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 70 -110o / -110u | -255 |
Only two weeks of play remain before the first College Football Playoff rankings are released on Nov. 1.
The Pac-12 hasn't sent a member of the conference to the national semifinal since 2016, when Washington had a non-covering effort in a loss to Alabama.
Since then, a collection of Stanford, Utah, USC and others have all failed to win the Power Five West with a clean enough overall record to compete for the national title.
Enter UCLA and Oregon. Both teams find themselves undefeated in conference play and inside the AP top 10. The Bruins and Ducks, along with USC, represent the only chance the Pac-12 has to send a team to the 2022 College Football Playoff, as all other teams in the conference have a minimum of two losses.
Among the drama of the national title picture, this game will see UCLA head coach Chip Kelly attempt to beat his old team after striking out on three previous tries.
A victory for Oregon not only eliminates the last undefeated team in the conference but gets new head coach Dan Lanning on track to the championship game.
A win for UCLA keeps the Bruins undefeated and just a Stanford win away from entering the College Football Playoff discussion as an undefeated team.
Oregon Ducks
Quarterback Bo Nix is on the verge of breaking his personal single-season touchdown record, set at 16 in his 2019 freshman season.
Nix's big-time throw rate of 3% is the lowest mark recorded dating back to his freshman season, but a 2.8% rate of turnover-worthy plays is also a welcome record for the senior quarterback.
New scenery and some clean Oregon air has also helped Nix achieve more rushing touchdowns than any of his previous three seasons at Auburn.
Look At Bo Nix Man🤩 pic.twitter.com/mUKKuLbCxc
— 𝑯𝒖𝒓𝒕𝒔 𝑺𝒛𝒏 {6-0} (@itsPeakyy) October 2, 2022
Similar to UCLA, the Ducks boast a high-powered offense that dominates in the trench and rarely makes mistakes. Oregon is the top team in the country in Standard Downs Success Rate, Rushing Success Rate and pass blocking.
Bucky Irving has been the workhorse for the ground game, creating 27 missed tackles and 4.3 yards after contact.
When offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham has called for Nix to go downfield, Troy Franklin has been the primary target at wideout with an explosive 2.6 yards per route run.
The offense has been fantastic at moving the chains and putting points on the board, but the Ducks defense is still under construction.
Previous versions of the Oregon defense featured elite pass rushers and soft trenches against the run. Against the 25th-toughest schedule so far this season, the Ducks rank top-30 in Success Rate against the run and outside the top 100 against the pass.
They've also been poor in opponent scoring opportunities, allowing 4.7 points on 33 attempts past their 40-yard line.
UCLA Bruins
Members of the Pac-12 struggle to prepare for Kelly's style of offense. While most West Coast members prefer a spread attack with different wrinkles in the mold of an Air Raid or Run and Shoot, UCLA presents a change-of-pace ground attack.
Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is now in his fifth season under center, starting at quarterback since Kelly's second-ever game as UCLA's head coach against Oklahoma.
The high-powered ground attack ranks sixth in Standard Downs Success Rate, utilizing using fullbacks, tight ends and receivers in motion. Opposing defenses have struggled to move from defending spread-out attacks to UCLA's bunch set with a dual-threat quarterback.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson jukes 2 defenders with 1 move 🥴🥴
UCLA (+120 ML) đź‘€pic.twitter.com/INjDAehkSi
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) October 1, 2022
Zach Charbonnet is having a career season, as he's on pace to break his total of explosive runs while averaging a career-high of 4.7 yards after contact. UCLA ranks sixth in Offensive Line Yards and second in Offensive Stuff Rate, dominating trenches and consistently moving the chains.
Thompson-Robinson has seen a decrease in big-time throw rate versus last year, but his low mark of two interceptions adds to the rank of third nationally in Havoc Allowed.
The Bruins' undefeated record can be attributed to gains on the defense. New coordinator Bill McGovern has improved the pass defense to a rank of 18th against the rush and 23rd in coverage.
In a Pac-12 filled with explosive plays, UCLA has limited big plays through the air with a top-20 rank in expected points against the pass.
Oregon vs UCLA Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and UCLA match up statistically:
UCLA Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 27 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 1 | 103 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 12 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 123 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oregon Offense vs. UCLA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 99 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 82 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 1 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 12 | 70 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 50 | 99 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 37 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 75 | 55 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.6 (22) | 26.0 (56) |
| Rush Rate | 54.6% (60) | 53.1% (69) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Oregon vs UCLA Betting Pick
There will be a plethora of points here, which is par for the course in Oregon games. The Ducks field one of the best numbers in Offensive Finishing Drives and one of the worst in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Each time Oregon or UCLA crosses the opponent's 40-yard line, there's an expected 4.7 points coming from the offense. Considering these are two of the top six offenses nationally in Standard Downs Success Rate, the number of scoring opportunities may reach double digits per team.
Each team has the ability to grind on the ground and keep the other offense off of the field, but UCLA runs tempo at 23.6 seconds per play with Oregon not far behind at 25.9 seconds per play.
There are defensive liabilities on both sides. UCLA sits outside the top 75 in Defensive Success Rate, while Oregon comes in at 129th in opponent third-down conversion rate.
As steam hits the market, the total has gone past our projection of 70. The key numbers in this range are 69 and 72, as the best investment is getting at or below those two numbers with a smaller play at a higher number.
Action Network projects the game at Oregon -5, as the Ducks are given just 1.6 points for playing in Autzen Stadium. Considering this game will come down to which offense makes a mistake first, there's value in backing UCLA at +6.5 or better in the longshot case of an overtime game.
UCLA has the better third-down defense and numbers against explosive plays. This is a buy spot on the Bruins pregame and buy back on the Ducks live.
Pick: Over 71.5 or Better · UCLA +6.5 or Better |
