UMass vs. Toledo Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +1600 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
Don Brown's second stint as UMass head coach got off to a rocky start in Week 1 with a 32-point loss to Tulane, failing to cover as a 28-point 'dog.
It doesn't get much easier in Week 2 against another formidable mid-major program in Toledo.
The Rockets — who boast one of, if not the most talented rosters in the MAC — have been a great bet early in the season under head coach Jason Candle, going 19-7-1 against the number in the last 27 in September.
Four touchdowns is a boatload of points, though. Are we laying them with Toledo, or taking 'em with UMass?
I have an opinion on this one, folks. But it's a little off the cuff.
Massachusetts Minutemen
Brown listed five quarterbacks on the depth chart for Week 1, but let's not consider that a luxury: The tandem of Gino Campiotti and Brady Olson combined for a 4-of-11 passing line with (checks notes for clarity) 17 yards and three interceptions.
Overall, only Middle Tennessee State, Bowling Green and Temple averaged fewer yards per play than UMass (3.1) on Saturday.
The Minutemen did ring up 200 yards on the ground, but it took 58 carries. Plus, good luck running the ball for three yards a pop on a weekly basis when you're entering the half time down an insurmountable lead.
UMass has been bottom-seven nationally in first-half points allowed every year since 2018, including last-place finishes in 2021 and 2019.
The defense, meanwhile, notched a lone tackle for loss and zero sacks against the Green Wave.
There isn't a lot of Havoc to go around for Brown, who coached up dominant units in the Power Five.
Toledo Rockets
Toledo battered Long Island and didn't need to get too cute in the 37-0 rout last week.
Quarterback Dequan Finn went 21-of-28 through the air and was the leading rusher, totaling 64 yards.
Long Island isn't competitive, but Toledo didn't give an inch, out-gaining the FCS squad 437-113.
Candle has had some shortcomings at the post, especially when Toledo's expected to win. The Rockets were a popular pick in season-long future markets in 2022, with the hope they could reverse their 0-5 win-loss record in one-score games.
Those toss-up games will materialize later in the season; Week 2 is an absolute smash spot.
UMass vs. Toledo Betting Pick
Toledo was laying close to 50 points over Long Island, and respected money came in late on the Rockets.
This is a really good team, flying under the radar, and perhaps not hanging 77 on the Sharks opened up some value on the home team here.
We're seeing some 28s pop up around the market on the standard spread, but I'll bank on Toledo going to work early and dismantling a UMass program that has no clue how to get off to a solid start.
A year after posting the worst first-half scoring margin in the entire country (-21.7), UMass got right back to its ways in Week 1, letting Tulane snag a first-half cover (21-0).
Anything south of -17 is a play.
