UTSA vs UAB Odds
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Headed into November, the defending C-USA champion Roadrunners find themselves in prime position to return to the conference title game. They currently sit all alone atop the conference (no divisions this year) standings at 4-0.
Following a bye week, UTSA will take a trip to Birmingham to take on 2020 conference champion UAB.
The Blazers sit at 4-4 on the season, including a disappointing mark of 2-3 in league play, which has essentially crushed any hopes of reaching the conference title game.
Can UAB get back on track at home? Or will the cardiac kids from San Antonio pull out another one? Let's take a closer look.
UTSA features one of the best offenses at the Group of Five level.
It's an up-tempo and bit pass-heavy attack, led by veteran quarterback Frank Harris, whose dual-threat ability has terrorized opposing defenses all season long for an offense that ranks in the top 20 nationally in EPA per Play and Success Rate.
Harris certainly benefits from an outstanding trio of receivers on the outside who each have at least 50 receptions in 2022 in addition to a pair of very productive tight ends.
UTSA will spread teams out with weapons all over the field and the threat of Harris taking off for a first down at any point. It's an excellent offense.
The picture isn't as rosy on the other side of the ball. The Roadrunners have struggled all year on defense because they can't defend the pass. Plus, the more-predictive early down metrics suggest even more struggles ahead.
The defensive front is strong, which explains their success against the run. However, almost every opposing quarterback has feasted on their secondary. Even Army somehow threw for over 300 yards for the first time in 15 years.
You could make a case UTSA has a top-25 offense and bottom-25 defense, which is why you'll see the Roadrunners in high-scoring affairs with high frequency.
UAB Blazers
UAB has a methodical, run-first offense led by one of the nation's best running backs in workhorse DeWayne McBride, who leads the nation in yards per game. Despite missing the first game of the season, he still ranks second in the country in rushing yards.
The ground game sets up an explosive passing attack, led by quarterback Dylan Hopkins, who ranks in the top five nationally in yards per attempt. The Blazers don't throw often, but they hit big plays when they do.
However, Hopkins suffered a concussion two weeks ago against Western Kentucky, which caused him to also miss last week's contest against Florida Atlantic. He's officially day-to-day with no guarantee he will be ready on Saturday.
If Hopkins doesn't suit up, Jacob Zeno would step in under center once again, which is a clear downgrade. On the season, Zeno has only completed 50% of his passes with almost five fewer yards per attempt.
Defensively, the Blazers are excellent in large part due to one of the best secondaries of any group of five squad. On the season, they actually rank in the top 20 nationally in EPA per Pass and fourth overall in Pass Efficiency Defense.
In contrast, the UAB run defense has struggled all season. It ranks outside the top 100 in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.
The defensive line, in particular, has struggled to get a push, ranking 97th in Line Yards.
UTSA vs UAB Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTSA and UAB match up statistically:
UTSA Offense vs. UAB Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 72 | |
| Line Yards | 12 | 96 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 34 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 102 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 22 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 32 | 3 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
UAB Offense vs. UTSA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 43 | 4 | |
| Line Yards | 78 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 33 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 16 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 40 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 130 | 9 |
| PFF Coverage | 103 | 2 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 96 | 109 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.0 (12) | 29.8 (123) |
| Rush Rate | 50.0% (85) | 64.8% (9) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
UTSA vs. UAB Betting Pick
This looks like a juicy buy-low spot for the Blazers, who just haven't had the ball bounce their way in a couple of tough-luck losses.
Two of their losses came with Zeno under center. The others came on the road by one possession against Liberty and Rice in games the Blazers should have won. Meanwhile, all four wins came by double-digits.
The Blazers also have revenge on their mind from a heartbreaking loss last year on a last-minute game-winning tipped-ball touchdown that ultimately led to UTSA clinching the division.
Conversely, UTSA has benefited from good fortune in close games. Two of its four league victories came by one possession, including last week where UTSA scored the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds.
More importantly, UAB has the secondary to neutralize Frank Harris and the UTSA aerial attack. The Blazers have shut down every potent passing attack they have faced this season. Additionally, there could be some inclement weather, which would heavily favor UAB in this particular matchup.
I do think the Blazers need Hopkins back to fully exploit the vulnerable Roadrunner secondary. While not a guarantee, I'm assuming he will suit up and hit the explosive plays that the Roadrunners allow way too frequently.
For what it's worth, UAB has gone 11-0 against the spread at home following a loss, including 2-0 this season. I believe it will extend that streak to 12 on Saturday.
Pick: UAB PK |
