Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Odds
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+38.5 -110 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | +3000 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-38.5 -110 | 56.5 -115o / -105u | -10000 |
The Georgia Bulldogs enter this matchup at 6-0 but had two lackluster performances in a row against Kent State and Missouri. But last week, Georgia looked more like the defending national champions in a 42-10 win over rival Auburn.
The Bulldogs covered as 28-point favorites and moved to 3-3 against the spread this season. Georgia is a big favorite once again when it welcomes Vanderbilt "between the hedges."
If you took Vanderbilt's season win total over at 2.5, that already cashed for you, as the Commodores enter at 3-3. That's the good news. The bad news is Vanderbilt is coming off of consecutive blowout losses to Alabama and Ole Miss in which it was outscored, 107-31.
It will not get any easier for Vanderbilt this week at Georgia.
It's Homecoming week for Georgia and will be the 24th time that it has hosted Vanderbilt for its homecoming. The Bulldogs are 20-4 in those games, though the Commodores' last win in the series came on Georgia's homecoming in 2016.
Georgia leads the all-time series, 59-20-2, and has won 12 of the last 14 meetings.
The Dawgs scored 62 points against the Dores last season, and this year's total sits at 58.5. Should we expect a ton of points again?
Vanderbilt Commodores
Georgia marks Vanderbilt's third consecutive top-10 opponent in a row.
The Bulldogs will face an improved Vanderbilt offense from what they've seen in previous years. Last year, Vandy averaged 312.8 yards of total offense and just 15.8 points per game, which was 128th in the FBS. This season, Vanderbilt is averaging 379.8 yards of total offense and rose up to 33.2 points per game, which ranks 44th nationally.
The Commodores began the season with quarterback Mike Wright under center, but freshman AJ Swann has taken the reins of the starting role. Swann has completed 62.7% of his passes for 848 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Wright offers more as a runner, however, and has 277 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Running back Re'Mahn Davis leads the team with 507 rushing yards and has four touchdowns on 4.7 yards per carry. Junior receiver
Will Sheppard leads the Dores with 35 receptions for 452 yards and eight touchdowns and is well on his to shattering his previous career-high of 35 receptions. Freshman Jayden McGowan ranks second on the team with 29 receptions for 380 yards and two touchdowns.
One thing that Vanderbilt does well on offense is protect the ball. The Commodores rank 18th in the FBS with only five giveaways. Georgia's defense, meanwhile, has forced just eight turnovers in six games, which is 73rd in the FBS. That bodes well for Vanderbilt maintaining possession of the ball.
However, with its defense, Vanderbilt may have to score on every offensive possession to keep pace. The Commodores are allowing 36.8 points per game and rank 122nd in the FBS in scoring defense.
Vanderbilt sits 86th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate but struggles to defend the pass even more. It allows 324 passing yards per game while ranking 121st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and last in FBS in pass rush grading, per PFF.
Georgia Bulldogs
After falling to No. 2 in the AP Poll, Georgia regained the No. 1 ranking after its performance against Auburn. The Bulldogs outgained the Tigers, 500-258, with much of their damage coming on the ground.
They ran for 292 yards on 7.5 yards per carry. While the best way to attack Vanderbilt's defense may be through the air, Georgia should have its way on the ground as well.
Georgia rotates its running backs heavily and has four rushers with over 165 yards. Daijun Edwards leads the team with 285 yards, while Kendall Milton is right on his heels with 284. Each has four touchdowns.
Kenny McIntosh has 199 rushing yards and three touchdowns but also leads the team with 26 receptions for 250 yards. As a team, the Bulldogs rank fourth in Rushing Success Rate.
When Georgia puts the ball in the air, it will often look for the best tight end in the country in Brock Bowers. The sophomore has hauled in 22 passes for 378 yards and two touchdowns while adding three more scores on the ground. Receiver Ladd McConkey also has 25 receptions for 313 yards and a touchdown.
Quarterback Stetson Bennett has been efficient, completing 69% of his passes while averaging 290 passing yards per game.
Defensively, Georgia doesn't have the historic unit it had last season, but it's still elite. The Bulldogs rank fourth in the FBS in scoring defense (10.7 points per game), ninth in Passing Success Rate, ninth in Line Yards and 10th in Finishing Drives.
However, I mentioned that Georgia doesn't force many turnovers, and it also doesn't put much pressure on the quarterback. The Bulldogs have recorded only six sacks in six games, which ranks 125th nationally. They're also 80th in pass rush grading and 82nd in Havoc.
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and Georgia match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Georgia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 9 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 123 | 80 | |
| Havoc | 15 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 10 | 10 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Georgia Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 121 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 50 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 103 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 89 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 77 | 37 |
| PFF Coverage | 102 | 5 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 22 | 5 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.6 (107) | 29.3 (120) |
| Rush Rate | 55.2% (58) | 48.5% (95) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Betting Pick
Vanderbilt has scored six points in the last two meetings against Georgia. It's improved on offense, but moving the ball against the Bulldogs will still be a challenge.
However, Vandy is 21-for-21 in the red zone (17 TDs, four field goals) and ranks 10th in Finishing Drives. If Vanderbilt can score 10 points when it crosses into Georgia territory, the over will have a great shot of cashing.
At 58.5, Georgia will have a chance of clearing the over by itself. It scored 62 against Vanderbilt last season, while the Commodores have allowed 55 and 52 points in their last two games. I don't see Vanderbilt having much more success stopping this Georgia this week on the ground or through the air.
I see value in the over and would play it up to 61.5.
