Virginia vs. Duke Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +106 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -128 |
Duke and Virginia's game in Durham, North Carolina was initially in the crosshairs of Hurricane Ian as it made its way up the east coast following landfall.
As the game has moved closer and short-range models have presented a rosier weather outlook, it appears as though the Duke and Virginia game will have almost no weather impact on Saturday.
The total opened as high as 57, dropped as low as 48 and is now sitting at 52. The initial move was surely more than just the weather threat after Virginia produced another poor offensive performance against Syracuse in a last-minute 22-20 loss last Friday.
The Blue Devils opened as one-point favorites at home, but have taken some money and are now laying a full three at home. With the improved conditions, this is a prime bounce-back spot for the improved Blue Devils to win at home.
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia finally found some semblance of offense, via the running game, in the second half against Syracuse last Friday. The offensive line has had major problems protecting Brennan Armstrong, but the Cavaliers really benefitted from Syracuse turnovers.
The Orange had an 89% post-game win expectancy and two fumbles handed the Cavaliers a touchdown to get back into the game. Virginia managed just a 28% Success Rate on passing downs and couldn't manage to do much outside of an impressive 4.3 line yards per rush.
While they took advantage of the Orange on the ground, the Cavaliers won't have the same success against Duke on Saturday. The Blue Devils have a much more formidable defensive line and are healthier along the line than the Orange were.
Virginia's offensive line may be 12th in Line Yards, but the Duke defense ranks sixth in defensive line yards. When it comes to passing and pass protection, the Virginia wide receivers have had problems with drops and the pass blocking is among the 10 worst units in the country through four games.
Virginia was undervalued in the market last week and I bet on them to cover against Syracuse, but that had more to do with the Orange than Virginia.
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia's defense deserves credit for stifling a usually successful Syracuse rushing attack last week, but the Cavaliers are once again at a defensive line disadvantage this week.
The Blue Devils are a slow, methodical offense that has found a ton of success on the ground to date. They rank 13th in offensive line yards and have solid Rushing EPA numbers. The Success Rate hasn't always been there for Duke — it ranks 70th — but the explosives have come often enough to sustain the rushing attack.
Duke did take its first loss of the season under first-year head coach Mike Elko when it fell to Kansas last week. The Jayhawks were deserved winners with a 99% post-game win expectancy, but the Blue Devils had no issues moving the ball up and down the field. They finished with seven trips inside the Kansas 40-yard line and were stuffed on just 6% of runs in the game.
The offense did struggle on third downs, but the 50% standard down success rate is much better than what Virginia has posted this season, even against lesser opponents.
Virginia vs. Duke Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia and Duke match up statistically:
Virginia Offense vs. Duke Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 26 | 25 |  |
| Line Yards | 12 | 6 | |
| Pass Success | 123 | 98 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 120 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 86 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 40 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Duke Offense vs. Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 82 | 63 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 73 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 42 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 9 | 117 |
| PFF Coverage | 9 | 82 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 107 | 61 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.6 (27) | 28.9 (111) |
| Rush Rate | 50.5% (85) | 56.5% (45) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Virginia vs. Duke Betting Pick
Even though Duke failed to cover last week, the market still hasn't adjusted to how much better the Blue Devils are in year one under Elko.
The offensive line is considerably better in pass protection and the offense has shown far more consistency this season than Virginia.
While Virginia's offense was able to run the ball against Syracuse, Duke's defensive front should offer more resistance. Without the benefit of excellent field position, the Cavaliers' offense looked lost last week.
And in a game that's lined close like this one, the Cavaliers can't have much faith in their kicking game after their kicker missed two field goals in a dome last week. Neither attempt was close. Even though I'm not necessarily anticipating adverse kicking conditions in Durham, Duke has the superior offense and special teams in this game.
Throw in the home field, and the Blue Devils should be more than field goal favorites.
I'll take Duke at -3 or better. The total has now properly adjusted for the improved weather report and I can't suggest a play on the total at the current number.
Pick: Duke -3
