Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Odds
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | +265 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | -335 |
Unless you have been living under a rock, then you would know that the Southeast has been getting brutalized by Hurricane Ian.
My thoughts and prayers for those affected.
An area that is included in the projected forecast is the Carolinas, who are getting hit by the upper remnants of it.
As a result of this, the total has come crashing down since the open. This is a result of strong winds, and/or because both teams looked absolutely awful in their last game out.
Both teams are presented an opportunity to get back on track following losses. The question is: Which team will capitalize?
Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech is already off to a rocky start, sitting at 2-2 with the offense looking as brutal as possible.
In a game in which the Hokies were thoroughly handled by West Virginia, the offense was reduced to 228 total yards, with only 35 of them on the ground.
For a pass-heavy unit, quarterback Grant Wells had a mediocre night, throwing for 193 yards, one touchdown and one interception for a QBR of 65.0.
He has a great opportunity for a rebound, as UNC is one of the worst pass-defending units in the nation, sitting at 116th in Defensive Pass Success.
Speaking of defense, Virginia Tech owns a formidable unit, and it will need to be on its A-game to limit UNC's elite offense.
This will be a battle of the trenches, as both the UNC offensive line and Virginia Tech defensive line are the best in the nation in pass metrics.
Drake Maye has been elite running the Tar Heels' show, but if Virginia Tech can generate pressure in the backfield and limit his production, then the UNC offense will crumble.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Death, taxes, and UNC fielding one of the worst defenses in football. The few guarantees in life.
The unit on the field isn't just bad — it's horrific. The coach leading the Heels is not doing them any favors either, as defensive coordinator Gene Chizik has pre-gamed some of the most head-scratching schemes this season.
The game plan last time out included a soft zone coverage, which gave Notre Dame's offense life with star tight end Matthew Mayer dealing most of the damage. If the Heels simply played tight on him instead of dropping back, then it could have been a totally different game.
If it wasn't for the defensive line's elite production, then I would be surprised if the Tar Heels had any stops this season. They rank on the wrong side of 100 in nearly every defensive metric.
Until they figure out the defensive side of things, they will once again need to lean on the offense.
That's easier said than done, as the Hokies' defense is formidable.
We may see more of running back Omarion Hampton, as the Tar Heels have an edge on the ground if he were to find the open field.
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia Tech and North Carolina match up statistically:
Virginia Tech Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 119 | |
| Line Yards | 125 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 69 | 116 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 48 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 112 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
North Carolina Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 70 | 13 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 3 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 58 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 68 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 18 | 16 |
| PFF Coverage | 46 | 119 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 29 | 10 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.5 (69) | 23.6 (22) |
| Rush Rate | 51.6% (83) | 53.1% (71) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina Betting Pick
It's really tough to pick a side, as North Carolina cannot stop a nosebleed, and the Virginia Tech offense is as stagnant as it gets.
Instead, I will shift my focus toward the total.
Seeing the total steam down due to weather from the opener of 57 to 51, I believe now is the time to buy back on it with an over.
Sort of like my beloved Detroit Lions, UNC has hit auto-over territory. The offense is elite while the defense remains clueless — a tale as old as time.
Notre Dame fields an offensive unit that is nothing special — a unit that looked elite while exposing the Tar Heels' defense. With near bottom of the barrel ranks in Coverage and Defensive Pass Success, Wells is primed for a bounce back here.
Take the over at anything less than 52 while still monitoring the weather situation in case the area is hit harder than expected.
