Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Odds
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
Week 6’s ACC Coastal matchup between Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech features two teams that are looking to bounce back from losses in Week 5.
For Pittsburgh, it's looking to bounce back from a stunning defeat against Georgia Tech last week, and as a result, is searching for its first conference victory of the season.
Luckily for the Panthers, they are 10-3 over their last 13 ACC games, including winning nine of their last 13 matchups against Virginia Tech.
The Hokies hope to end a two-game conference losing streak after being outscored by 54 total points in their two most recent matchups against UNC and West Virginia.
Pittsburgh is 7-4 all-time against Virginia Tech at home.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech and first-year head coach Brent Pry must be disappointed with how the season has started.
The Hokies are coming off of back-to-back losses against West Virginia and UNC, failing to cover the spread in both outings.
Much of the headache so far for Virginia Tech has come on the offensive side of the ball.
The Hokies are averaging just 2.7 points per scoring opportunity so far this season. This lack of offensive explosiveness is tied to their overall Offensive Success Rate of just 39%.
In their two most recent defeats, the Hokies have failed to score more than 10 points in each contest.
Where Virginia Tech truly needs to see improvement is in its rushing attack. The Hokies rank 124th in the country in EPA/Rush at -0.198. This lack of success up front has resulted in just 2.5 Line Yards per rush and an abysmal 0.6 second level Line Yards per rush.
For the Hokies to try and turn their season around, they must look to establish some sort of rushing attack to put junior quarterback Grant Wells in better situations.
Wells has thrown six total interceptions and five touchdowns, resulting in a QBR of 45.6, which is outside the top 90 in the country.
Fortunately for Pry and the Hokies, their defense has been successful enough to make up for some of their offensive shortcomings.
So far this season, the Hokies have an overall Defensive Success Rate of 35%, which climbs to 42% in Standard Downs. Their success up front is further shown in their ability to limit opponents' rushing explosiveness to .97.
The Hokies' defense is not limited to their success up front, though, as Virginia Tech is 13th nationally in Success Rate against the pass at 32.4%.
This defensive prowess should continue to be a big advantage against a Pittsburgh team that hasn’t been very impressive on offense, ranking 78th nationally in Offensive Success Rate.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh’s season-long goals were given a real test last Saturday after the Panthers suffered a shocking defeat to Georgia Tech, 26-21. This loss gave Georgia Tech its first FBS win of the season.
A staple of Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers offense is a slow, methodical pace. Pittsburgh ranks 111th nationally in seconds per play.
This sluggish play style has helped to limit their opponents’ offensive possessions, which catalyzes the success they have had on the defensive end.
Overall, the Panthers do not have offensive analytics that jump off of the page. Pittsburgh ranks 65th nationally in EPA/Rush and 58th in EPA/Pass.
Although these statistics may be mediocre, what truly makes this offense a problem for the opposition is its ability to stay on the field and move the chains.
The Panthers rank eighthin the country, converting 77.42% of their first and second downs into additional first downs. As a result, they also rank eighth nationally in total time of possession at 33:44 per game.
When looking at the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh’s defense has seen success on the few offensive possessions its opponents are able to create.
The Panthers have a 37% Success Rate overall, which climbs to 42% on Standard Downs.
Where Pittsburgh is truly impressive is in its ability to create Havoc on defense.
The Panthers have an overall Havoc Rate of 24%, getting 11% Havoc from the defensive backs. This Havoc, particularly in the secondary, will be crucial against an opposing quarterback who has struggled overall, specifically with interceptions.
Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia Tech and Pitt match up statistically:
Virginia Tech Offense vs. Pitt Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 128 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 35 | 36 |  |
| Havoc | 55 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 120 | 71 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pitt Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 27 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 10 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 70 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 79 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 97 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 105 | 61 |
| PFF Coverage | 84 | 36 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 30 | 121 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.6 (68) | 28.9 (111) |
| Rush Rate | 51.3% (82) | 56.9% (46) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Betting Pick
When looking at this matchup, it is obviously strength vs. strength on the defensive end.
The Hokies and Panthers rank 26th and 23rd, respectively, in overall Defensive Success Rate, and I do not expect those numbers to decrease against two offenses that have been far from lethal so far this season.
Look for Virginia Tech to expose many of the problems Pittsburgh had offensively last week against Georgia Tech. Also, look for Pittsburgh's defense to force Wells into situations that will continue his habit of committing turnovers.
There is serious value on the under in this ACC matchup, even given the low total.
Although it has been steamed down to 41.5 at the time of writing, I still see value down to 38.5.
Make sure you properly shop this number, as there have been a few 42s in the market over the past several days.
