Wake Forest vs. Florida State Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 65.5 -105o / -115u | +202 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 65.5 -105o / -115u | -250 |
ACC play is officially underway, and we may have a barn burner on our hands in Tallahassee as the Wake Forest Demon Deacons take on the Florida State Seminoles.
The Demon Deacons dropped their conference opener in a heartbreaker with the No. 5 ranked Clemson Tigers. Quarterback Sam Hartman threw six touchdowns, which was still not enough as his attempt for a seventh came up short in double overtime.
As for the Seminoles, they routed the Louisville Cardinals as quarterback Jordan Travis made a surprise return from injury and went on to have a career day as he threw for 321 yards. He may replicate his success this week, but the Demon Deacons will fire back. So how does this play into our angle? Let's dive in and find out.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Hartman's return has vaulted the Demon Deacons into ACC contention. The offseason concerns over his injury created a ton of value on their futures, and we are seeing why through his first three games of the season.
Thus far, Hartman has thrown for over 300 yards in every game and has an impressive 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 64 percent of his passes. He should continue the tear he's been on as the Seminoles secondary has not shown much resistance to passing attacks.
Florida State enters this matchup ranked 102nd in opponent completion percentage, which is directly correlated to their rank of 80th in Passing Success Rate allowed.
While there are other metrics that point to Florida State's pass defense being much better than those numbers, they have those numbers without facing a prolific passing attack, as they will see with Hartman and the Deacons. Instead, the best quarterback and offense they've faced were Malik Cunningham and Louisville. Cunningham threw for 243 yards and averaged 7.1 yards per completion.
Expect Hartman to blow those numbers out of the water.
Florida State Seminoles
We know that the Demon Deacons are going to put up points and have success through the air, but the Seminoles may go score for score with them. To their credit, the Seminoles are 17th in Passing Success Rate and 11th in yards per pass.
Put those numbers against a Wake Forest defense that ranks 81st in yards per pass allowed and 62nd in Passing Success Rate. Last week, DJ Uiagalelei shredded this secondary for 371 yards and five touchdowns. While Clemson is not as inept offensively as it seems, Travis and the Seminoles offense outranks them by a substantial margin in the passing department.
However, the Seminoles are not a pass-first team. They actually run the ball at the 29th-highest rate in the country, and they should have success on the ground as well.
Treshaun Ward and Trey Benson have been outstanding this season as Ward is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, and Benson is even better with 7.2 yards per carry. Those two will go up against a Wake Forest defense that has allowed over 160 yards per game on the ground and ranks 58th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
They don't have a significant enough edge in the trenches to slow this rushing game down, and it will only set up more explosive plays as the game continues.
Wake Forest vs. Florida State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wake Forest and Florida State match up statistically:
Wake Forest Offense vs. Florida State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 114 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 80 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 69 | 39 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 66 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 95 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Florida State Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 62 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 86 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 85 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 86 | 79 |
| PFF Coverage | 9 | 56 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 20 | 104 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.4 (20) | 28.0 (102) |
| Rush Rate | 52.3% (77) | 59.2% (28) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Wake Forest vs. Florida State Betting Pick
The market has continued to bet this total down from open, which is puzzling.
Yes, Hurricane Ian hitting Florida could be the reason, but the weather is projected to be 86 degrees and sunny come Saturday afternoon.
With the edges that both offenses have and Wake Forest's pace likely making this a high-scoring affair, I'm taking the over here. However, given the way the market is trending, it may be best to wait for the best number, as it is as low as 63.5 in some spots.
