West Virginia vs. Texas Tech Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -106 | 65.5 -112o / -108u | +168 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -114 | 65.5 -112o / -108u | -205 |
It's a battle of 3-3 football teams on Saturday afternoon at Jones AT&T Stadium. West Virginia heads to Lubbock winners of three of its last four and looking to get over .500 for the first time all season.
Texas Tech enters this one fresh off of a bye week after a difficult two-game road swing at both Kansas State and Oklahoma State.
Both of these teams currently sit at 1-2 in the Big 12, so this is an important game with the winner having a chance to climb back into the mix in the conference race.
Texas Tech currently sits right around a touchdown favorite in this one. Let's discuss where the betting value lies.
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia really opened some eyes in its last time out on Thursday night against Baylor. The Mountaineers put up 43 points against a pretty strong Baylor defense, highlighted by a game-winning Casey Legg field goal with just under 30 seconds remaining.
If West Virginia can channel that type of offensive production the rest of the year, this team can make a run and win plenty of games.
Quarterback JT Daniels has started to look the part in recent weeks, and the well-documented USC and Georgia transfer is taking much better care of the football.
Daniels has always had a strong arm, and he's hit some deep plays down the field when the opportunity has presented itself. He completed nearly 65% of his passes against Baylor, and he will need to be similarly efficient against a Texas Tech defense that has been pretty good against the pass.
Neal Brown has typically had some strong defenses throughout his tenure in Morgantown, but this year's team has been pretty mediocre on that side of the ball.
The Mountaineers lost plenty of talent to the NFL in recent years, and the youth has shown itself, particularly in conference play. Two metrics that really jump out are Defensive Pass Success and Havoc, where WVU ranks outside the top 100 in both.
West Virginia is getting torched through the air, and it's not generating many turnovers or negative plays.
Regardless of who ends up starting at quarterback for Tech, this secondary will need to be much better for West Virginia to have a chance to pull off the road upset.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
There are very few teams in the country that have three legitimate options at quarterback, but the Red Raiders are one of them. Ironically, all three are banged up entering this game, so it's still a bit unclear who Joey McGuire will turn to on Saturday.
Tyler Shough won the job to begin the year before injuring his shoulder right out of the gates. From there, Donovan Smith took over and showed some flashes of strong play, but also produced some costly mistakes.
Smith was injured following the Kansas State game, so against Ok State, Maguire turned to redshirt freshman Behren Morton.
Morton came out slinging it against the Cowboys and actually had a lot of success passing the ball before hurting his ankle in the second half.
Whoever ends up starting Saturday should be in a good position to move the football against a weak WVU secondary.
Tech also needs to continue to feed veteran running back SaRodorick Thompson on the ground to create balance offensively.
On the other side of the ball, look for the Red Raiders to bring plenty of pressure at JT Daniels.
WVU's offensive line has been pretty good all season, particularly in pass protection, which has given Daniels time to find his weapons down the field. Tech will look to get Daniels off schedule, as he's much better as a pocket passer.
Tech has been good at taking away the running game from its opponents, so getting Daniels into third-and-long situations could give this defense a chance to bring some exotic pressure looks.
If they can't get pressure, I have some serious doubts about how the Red Raider secondary will hold up against an efficient WVU passing attack.
West Virginia vs. Texas Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Texas Tech match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 44 | |
| Pass Success | 27 | 17 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 54 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 15 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 75 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Texas Tech Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 66 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 84 | 117 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 104 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 116 | 106 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 94 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 85 | 22 |
| PFF Coverage | 126 | 105 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 53 | 85 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (42) | 21.2 (7) |
| Rush Rate | 49.5% (88) | 41.8% (124) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
West Virginia vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick
I think both offenses have significant advantages in this game. In addition, both of these teams play pretty fast, particularly Texas Tech, which is one of the most uptempo teams in all of America.
As a result, I expect plenty of points in this one, with both defenses susceptible to allowing big plays down the field. I think this total should be in the low 70s, so I see plenty of value on the number currently sitting at 65.
This should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair between two teams thar are pretty similar to each other. Give me the over at 65 in what should be a fun one in West Texas.
Pick: Over 65 ⋅ Play to 66.5 |
