Western Michigan vs. Miami (OH) Odds
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | +220 |
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 44.5 -106o / -114u | -275 |
We're midway through the regular season, but MACtion is just starting to heat up.
Western Michigan travels to Oxford, Ohio to take on the Miami RedHawks.
Western Michigan enters this game with a 2-5 record and is coming off of two consecutive conference losses. The Broncos are 2-5 against the spread and have gone under in four of seven games.
Miami (OH) enters this game with a 3-4 record and is coming off of a road loss to Bowling Green. The RedHawks are 3-4 against the spread and have gone under in six of seven games this season.
It will be a warm day in Oxford with no forecasted precipitation. There will be cross winds ranging from 10.3 to 12.2 miles per hour, so the passing game and special teams could be impacted.
Western Michigan Broncos
The Broncos have struggled with four straight losses to FBS opponents. They sit at the bottom of the MAC West division.
They're averaging 21.4 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. They have a 38% Success Rate and average 3.52 points per opportunity. They allow a 21% Havoc rate and average 27 seconds per play.
Jack Salopek has completed just 50.8% of his passes for 6.4 yards per attempt. He's struggled maintaining possession with 10 interceptions to just seven touchdowns.
As a team, Western Michigan has a 37% Passing Success Rate, which ranks 103rd nationally. The Broncos have averaged 2.6 20+ yard passes per game.
Sean Tyler and La'Darius Jefferson have split work as rushers, with Tyler leading the team in both attempts and yards.
As a team, the Broncos have a 40% Rushing Success Rate. The offensive line has created 2.96 Line Yards per attempt while allowing just a 16.7% Stuff Rate.
Western Michigan has allowed 31.1 points per game and 5.9 yards per play. The Broncos allow a 47% Success Rate and 3.59 points per opportunity.
Despite their serious struggles to stop teams, they've been successful generating Havoc and shortening drives. Their 18% Havoc Rate ranks 61st, and this is largely due to their 12 turnovers.
Miami RedHawks
Chuck Martin's RedHawks have wavered between wins and losses this season. They've averaged just 19.7 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. They have a 34% Success Rate and average 3.08 points per opportunity.
Their offense averages 30.6 seconds per play, which ranks among the slowest in the country. Arguably the biggest concern with the Miami (OH) offense is that it ranks 130th in Havoc Rate Allowed at 28%.
The RedHawks average just 22.1 pass attempts per game. With Aveon Smith under center, they're completing 52.5% of passes for 6.0 yards per attempt.
As a team, the RedHawks have a 36% Passing Success Rate and average just 1.6 20+ yard passes per game.
As you'd expect by its limited pass attempts, the offense leans heavily on a running game that is averaging 39.4 rushes per game and 4.3 yards per attempt.
The versatile rushing attack featuring Keyon Mozee and Smith has helped, but it hasn't translated to Success Rate. They rank 129th in Rushing Success Rate at just 32%.
Defense is at the forefront of any Miami (OH) success. The RedHawks allow a 40% Success Rate and 3.54 points per opportunity. What stands out for this defense is its second-ranked Havoc Rate of 28%.
The RedHawks are particularly strong against the run compared to the pass and in these windy conditions, there will likely be a lot of running the ball.
Western Michigan vs. Miami (OH) Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Michigan and Miami (OH) match up statistically:
Western Michigan Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 116 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 79 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 112 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 44 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 113 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 60 | |
| Pass Success | 113 | 93 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 63 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 104 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 49 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 69 |
| PFF Coverage | 90 | 96 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 49 | 72 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (81) | 30.6 (127) |
| Rush Rate | 55.0% (56) | 63.9% (12) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Western Michigan vs. Miami (OH) Betting Pick
After losing to Bowling Green last week, it's hard to back the RedHawks as a near touchdown favorite. But that's largely where both the sharps and the public are putting their money — 81% of bets and 82% of the money is on Miami (OH) as the favorite.
It's pace of play and weather that are my keys to betting, though.
Miami (OH)'s 30.6 seconds per play ranks fifth-slowest in the country. And while Western Michigan is faster, it still plays at a slower than average pace.
Additionally, with high winds in the forecast, it's likely that both the special teams and passing game will be impacted.
Miami (OH)'s defense — paired with an atrocious offense — makes it a prime under candidate every week. And that's why my preferred play is under 44.5 points, and I'd play it as low as 42.5.
Pick: Under 44.5 (Play to 42.5) |
