Wyoming vs. New Mexico Odds
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 37 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 37 -110o / -110u | +140 |
As we near the mid-point of the college football season, I can confidently state that the Mountain West has been the most disappointing conference as a whole compared to preseason expectations.
A number of the top dogs lost nonconference games, highlighted by Boise State (-17) at UTEP and Fresno State (-24) at UConn.
On the plus side, that makes the race for the conference title that much more interesting. It's truly wide open in both the Mountain and West Divisions.
For this particular matchup, two West Division foes will meet in Albuquerque with host New Mexico seeking its first conference win of the season.
Wyoming Cowboys
Speaking of major upsets, Wyoming also pulled off one against fellow division rival Air Force earlier this season.
However, I think the market may be giving the Cowboys a bit too much respect for that victory. Air Force didn't have a few key starters, and head coach Craig Bohl just knows how to defend the triple-option as well as any non-Service Academy program.
The other FBS win came at home in double overtime over Tulsa in a game it probably should have lost. All things considered, I believe the market perception on this team might be skewed a tad artificially high.
Look, Bohl deserves a ton of credit for already getting the Pokes to three victories in 2022. Wyoming's roster got gutted by the transfer portal more than any team in the country this past offseason.
The Pokes essentially entered 2022 in full rebuild mode. Utah State transfer Andrew Peasley runs the show, but he's dealing with a hip pointer that cost him some time during last week's game. That's certainly worth monitoring, but I expect him to suit up.
From an offensive standpoint, this is the same fundamental Wyoming squad you may be familiar with. The Cowboys play very slow and lean on their rushing attack with a very conservative head coach calling the shots in Bohl. And after losing so many key pieces to the portal, the results have not been pretty.
Defensively, Wyoming has been a bit vulnerable to the explosive pass, but its down-to-down passing metrics look more promising than the run-defense metrics. Again, a major rebuild on this side of the ball as well.
New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos haven't enjoyed a ton of success on the field in recent seasons, but their past two meetings with Wyoming have been an exception.
Last year, New Mexico finished with the worst against-the-spread mark in the country at 1-11. Its one cover came on the road at Wyoming in a game it won outright, 14-3, at a 19-point underdog.
Additionally, during a pandemic-shortened campaign in 2020, one of New Mexico's two wins came over Wyoming, which was a 15.5-point favorite. That game came at a neutral site in Las Vegas since the Lobos couldn't play in their home state in 2020.
Yes, New Mexico is 2-0 straight up against Wyoming since head coach Danny Gonzales took over with both victories coming outside of Albuquerque as underdogs north of two touchdowns.
Since Gonzales took over, along with defensive coordinator Rocky Long, the defense has improved significantly. That's not too surprising for two brilliant defensive minds that know how to scheme up the 3-3-5 as well as any pair in the country.
While the defense has played at a respectable level, the offense has not.
The Lobos just can't seem to solve that side of the ball with many failed variations of option-based attacks. It doesn't help that it's a very tough place to recruit to, so it's not like the talent is there.
As a result of the offensive struggles, the defense usually also wears down late, having to be on the field for way too long far too often.
Wyoming vs. New Mexico Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and New Mexico match up statistically:
Wyoming Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 53 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 116 | 60 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 8 | 127 | |
| Havoc | 48 | 30 | |
| Finishing Drives | 73 | 29 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
New Mexico Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 86 | |
| Line Yards | 76 | 98 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 77 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 126 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 130 | 116 | |
| Finishing Drives | 98 | 98 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 131 | 118 |
| PFF Coverage | 116 | 34 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 24 | 96 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (101) | 32.1 (129) |
| Rush Rate | 58.6% (31) | 66.4% (5) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Wyoming vs. New Mexico Betting Pick
This one is ugly, but I’m backing the Lobos for a second straight weekend after getting to the window with relative ease against UNLV last Friday night.
After building a 17-0 lead in Sin City, it looked as if New Mexico eventually wore down on a short week in its second straight road game after getting beat up by LSU the previous Saturday.
I don’t think fatigue will be a major issue here with an extra day of rest/prep against a Wyoming team that plays at a snail's pace.
I’m also happily fading Wyoming for a second straight week in its first conference road trip of the season. Wyoming has one of the better home-field advantages in the country with the altitude in Laramie.
New Mexico’s defense should be the best unit on the field and has been the reason for the past two major upset wins over Wyoming, which scored a grand total of 19 points in those defeats.
The Lobos offense is absolutely dreadful, but the Cowboys' run defense is a bit soft, which is where UNM wants to make its hay.
Plus, quarterback Miles Kendrick has looked more comfortable in recent weeks. He'll have a few chances to connect on one or two deep shots against a Wyoming secondary that lost both starting cornerbacks and a safety to the transfer portal this past offseason.
Hitting one or two deep shots and forcing Peasley, who’s also dealing with a hip pointer, into a mistake or two is likely all it would take for UNM to pick up its first conference win of the season.
In what should play out as an absolute grinder with a current total of 36, I’ll gladly take the hook with the home pup that has the better defense in a battle of two horrid offenses.
