TCU vs. Kansas State Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
Two teams residing near the basement of the Big 12 standings square off on Saturday afternoon in Manhattan.
I've spent a good amount of time covering both of these teams throughout the season, and both groups took a step in opposite directions last week.
Things are starting to look very shaky in Fort Worth. TCU lost at home last week to West Virginia in a game in which the Mountaineers went for 487 total yards of offense.
The Horned Frogs have now dropped four of their last five, and aside from a home game against Kansas, the schedule is very difficult the rest of the way.
Meanwhile, Kansas State took a step back in the right direction with a comeback victory in Lubbock against Texas Tech.
The Wildcats trailed 24-10 at the break before pitching a shutout in the second half. Skylar Thompson found Deuce Vaughn for a 22-yard touchdown pass with seven minutes remaining to give KSU the lead. The defense did its job from there.
Kansas State had lost its first three Big 12 games before the win last week. The schedule is a little bit more favorable the rest of the way, though.
Can the Wildcats build on the comeback win, or will TCU show some fight and secure the road victory? Let's find out.
TCU Horned Frogs
It was no surprise to see the TCU defense struggle against West Virginia last week. That's what Gary Patterson's unit has done throughout the season.
It's past time to expect any sort of turnaround.
The Horned Frogs rank 124th out of 130 FBS teams in Defensive Rush Success. Opponents are getting whatever they want against TCU on the ground, whenever they want it.
It hasn't been much better through the air either. TCU's defense ranks 108th against the pass and 117th in avoiding big plays.
Injuries have played a part in the Frogs' defensive struggles and Patterson has not been able to push the right buttons to get the group back on track.
As poor as the TCU defense has been, the offense had been a very efficient unit — until the West Virginia game last week. Turnovers plagued the Frogs, as Max Duggan threw two costly interceptions and wide receiver Quentin Johnston coughed up a fumble late in the fourth quarter.
Star running back Zach Evans returned from injury, but he was unable to get much going on the ground against a formidable WVU front.
TCU will need Evans to return to form and Duggan to take better care of the football if it wants to leave Manhattan with a victory.
Kansas State Wildcats
It's been a roller-coaster ride of a season for the Wildcats, but things appear to be trending in the right direction.
The Big 12 did Kansas State no favors with scheduling to start conference play, as the Wildcats faced Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Iowa State in a row to start their Big 12 campaign.
What was most encouraging from the come-from-behind win in Lubbock was the way the KSU defense played in the second half.
Tech quarterback Henry Colombi did absolutely nothing through the air and the Wildcats' front bowed up against the run.
Felix Anudike-Uzomah has been an absolute monster in the trenches for the Wildcats and they will lean on him again this week against Duggan and Evans.
Thompson continues to be a warrior for the Wildcats as he made big-time throws down the stretch to help Kansas State pull off the comeback vs. Tech. Thompson isn't going to wow you with his arm strength, but this is a kid that plays with a ton of moxie.
Vaughn found the end zone twice last week and he could be in line for a massive Saturday with the aforementioned struggles from TCU's run defense.
TCU vs. Kansas State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Kansas State match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 110 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 5 | 47 | |
| Big Play | 17 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 77 | 43 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Kansas State Offense vs. TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 45 | 124 | |
| Line Yards | 35 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 108 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 64 | 85 | |
| Big Play | 25 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 99 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 104 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 125 | 107 |
| Coverage | 122 | 99 |
| Middle 8 | 74 | 96 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 48 | 60 |
| Plays per Minute | 79 | 123 |
| Rush Rate | 61.% (27) | 58.3% (42) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
TCU vs. Kansas State Betting Pick
This line opened with Kansas State -2.5 and has moved its way to -3 as the week has gone on. I'm laying the three points in this spot and backing the home team.
Chris Kleiman has done a really good job of keeping his team together amidst a three-game losing streak where the Wildcats suffered a lot of key injuries.
Last week was a big step forward for Kansas State, and I expect them to build off of that this week back at home.
TCU will have no answer for Vaughn out of the backfield and Thompson can also make plays with his legs. Star defensive end Bronson Massie is expected to return for this one, which could be critical for the Wildcats in getting pressure on Duggan.
The 2021 season has not gone according to plan for the Horned Frogs, and it's hard to see things improving much the rest of the way. There are tons of issues all over the defense and you have to wonder if TCU will get off the bus for this one after last week.
Give me the Wildcats to handle business at home and win this one comfortably in the Little Apple.
