TCU vs. Oklahoma State Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 54 -105o / -115u | +360 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 54.5 -105o / -115u | -490 |
TCU played with a ton of heart in its upset victory over Baylor last week. Gary Patterson's departure may have put a spark into this program. The only question is, can they do it again?
This week's task will be just as tall for TCU as it travels to Stillwater to face the 10th-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys have been rolling over their past two games as they've outscored their opponents 79-6 during that span.
With their string of impressive performances, they soon have a date with the Sooners that may have conference title implications. That matchup is looming, but could it cause them to overlook the Horned Frogs?
TCU Horned Frogs
Big Changes Make Big Differences
Jerry Kill taking over for Patterson wasn't the only major change TCU had last Saturday. Freshman Chandler Morris made his first career start and boy did he seize the moment.
Morris completed nearly 71 percent of his passes while accumulating 461 yards. And with the team suffering through injuries at running back, Morris added 70 yards rushing and a score. He displayed his legit dual-threat ability on this run:
Chandler Morris is doing HP stuff at TCU.
(🎥 via @DerekDuke25).pic.twitter.com/PpWMEkRjTU
— Joseph Hoyt (@JoeJHoyt) November 6, 2021
Morris also showed the ability to spread the ball around as he connected with 10 different receivers on the day.
This matchup will be the second and biggest test of his young career. Going on the road against this vaunted Oklahoma State defense is a challenge for any quarterback.
The Cowboys have held opponents to just 16.4 points per game this season. They allow the third-lowest yards per game as well as the fifth-lowest yards per play. This unit also does exceedingly well at not allowing big plays and getting off the field on third down, ranking first in both.
While all those numbers are extraordinary, there is one area where the Cowboys can be targeted. They are 59th in Passing Success Allowed and also allow opposing quarterbacks to complete more than 60 percent of their passes.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Run Warren Run
Utah State transfer Jaylen Warren has been a godsend for Oklahoma State, putting together a season that is worthy of national recognition. He's rushed for 928 yards at nearly five yards per carry with seven scores.
Warren has also shown that he can raise his game against high-level competition as he has rushed for at least 123 yards in games against ranked opponents.
He has also had his share of highlight plays like this one earlier this season against Tulsa:
Jaylen Warren HOW pic.twitter.com/VyQptBkm55
— Pistols Firing (@pistolsguys) September 11, 2021
Now, I can give Warren all the love he deserves, but what matters is what he is going to do against TCU this week. All signs point to him having another big game.
The Horned Frogs' defense has been especially bad against the run. They are 118th in opponent yards per rush, 120th in Rushing Success Allowed, and 122nd in Defensive Line Yards.
Warren gets all the attention from opposing defenses, so this could be the matchup where quarterback Spencer Sanders succeeds. TCU is 125th in opponents yards per pass completion and 93rd in opponent completion percentage. Those numbers are a direct result of their secondary's coverage ranking of 118.
TCU vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
TCU Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 59 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 5 | 39 | |
| Big Play | 59 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 63 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 11 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oklahoma State Offense vs. TCU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 122 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 99 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 36 | 83 | |
| Big Play | 67 | 115 | |
| Havoc | 73 | 120 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 115 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 124 | 73 |
| Coverage | 118 | 12 |
| Middle 8 | 94 | 22 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 73 | 58 |
| Plays per Minute | 76 | 52 |
| Rush Rate | 58.8% (39) | 60.4% (25) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
TCU vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick
Even though this may appear to be a big mismatch on paper, it is the intangible factors that will keep TCU in this game. TCU's defense may have performed uncharacteristically poor under Patterson this season, but Patterson's departure lit a fire under them.
This team is playing inspired as they know they have the talent to represent their former coach well. Add that into Oklahoma State potentially looking ahead to the Big 12 title game and you have a nice spot for Horned Frogs.
Catching almost two touchdowns is tremendous value in this spot. Our PRO Projections have this line around 10. The market has begun to come in on the Horned Frogs as this number has started to tick down. I grabbed this number at 13.5 and would not play it much lower.
