Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -130 |
There are a number of different scenarios centering on which team can win the SEC West if Alabama were to lose games in the month of November.
Both Texas A&M and Ole Miss fall into the category of contenders, but realistically, this game is about who will play in a New Year's Six bowl.
Although Ole Miss is near the top in offensive tempo, the scoring has lost bite. The Rebels have failed to score more than 31 points in their past four games, a signal of injury to the skill positions.
Texas A&M has been on a heater since its loss to Mississippi State to start October. The Aggies have won four straight, including games over Alabama and Auburn.
If the Crimson Tide drop a game in November, Texas A&M will represent the SEC West in the conference championship game if the Aggies remain at two losses.
A projected Fiesta Bowl berth may turn into a spot in the College Football Playoff if Texas A&M stays the course and gets some help.
Texas A&M Aggies
Defense Leading the Way for Texas A&M
The four-game winning streak can be attributed to a number of factors for the Aggies.
Defensive coordinator Mike Elko is stifling opposing offenses through his 4-2-5 scheme that doesn't make many mistakes in allowing home runs.
The Aggies rank sixth defensively in allowing 20-plus yard plays from scrimmage, and specifically, the standard downs defense is eighth in limiting the explosive play.
The Aggies' back seven has been excellent at defending the pass, ranking 10th in Success Rate and 19th in coverage.
When opponents get past the 40-yard line, Texas A&M has been a top-five team in the nation in opponent scoring, allowing just 2.5 points per trip against 113 opposing offensive drives.
Havoc was the key ingredient to beating Auburn in Week 10.
TEXAS A&M WITH THE SCOOP N SCORE!
The Aggies (-4.5) lead 17-3 👀
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 6, 2021
Aggies Offense Won't Face Much Resistance
While the defense is excellent at getting offenses behind schedule, it has been the explosive skill positions and improvement from quarterback Zach Calzada on offense that has created points and wins.
After logging five turnover-worthy plays in the first three games of the season, Calzada has logged just five in the past six games. The numbers are still undesirable in pressured dropbacks, but Texas A&M has minimized plays in passing downs.
Ole Miss will have issues containing two of the best skill position players in the nation. Both Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane rank in the top 25 of all running backs in elusiveness, a PFF stat that captures the success and impact of a runner with the ball independent of the blocking.
WOW! Devon Achane breaks a 68 yard run but fumbles and Auburn recovers! pic.twitter.com/6wlPmBvoZN
— ✯✯✯✯✯ (@FTBVids_YT) November 6, 2021
Spiller and Achane will have no resistance against an Ole Miss defense that is in the bottom 10 in Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
More importantly, the Rebels are 121st in standard downs Success Rate. Texas A&M may post the highest methodical and two-plus first down offensive drive rate of any team in Week 11.
Ole Miss Rebels
The injury bug continues to hamper an Ole Miss team that has put up four straight unders against the total.
Matt Corral did not practice last week in preparation for Liberty. The Heisman Trophy candidate logged just six rushing attempts, a stark contrast from 30 recorded just a few weeks ago against Tennessee.
Head coach Lane Kiffin joked that when the injuries clear up in the wide receiver room, the Rebels will be the most improved team in bowl season.
With outside targets Jonathan Mingo out and Braylon Sanders still not at full health, the offense will continue to rely on running backs Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner.
JERRION EALY: WELCOME TO WEEK 10💨#CFB
— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) November 6, 2021
With Ole Miss supporting some of the worst defensive metrics in college football, the game plan will consist of giving Texas A&M the run and waiting for Calzada to make mistakes in scoring position.
Despite ranks outside the top 100, the Rebels defense is a top-40 unit in pass rush and limiting the explosive play in passing downs.
Ole Miss varies between several defensive schemes, calling blitz the most in a 3-4 in early downs and no blitz in a 3-2-6 in passing downs.
The Rebels have allowed teams to gain well over the national average in available yards. That generally works with a stiff red-zone defense, but Ole Miss ranks 82nd in Defensive Finishing Drives, allowing 27 touchdowns in 32 opponent scores.
The best way to beat Texas A&M at home is to outscore a ground-based Aggies offense.
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Ole Miss match up statistically:
Texas A&M Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 124 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 120 | |
| Pass Success | 89 | 101 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 82 | 33 | |
| Big Play | 78 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 98 | 82 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Ole Miss Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 8 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 10 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 43 | 47 |  |
| Big Play | 7 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 35 | |
| Finishing Drives | 30 | 4 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 85 |
| Coverage | 19 | 44 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 50 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 14 | 34 |
| Plays per Minute | 96 | 3 |
| Rush Rate | 53.6% (76) | 58.6% (41) |
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick
Kiffin may have tipped his hand during his weekly presser on what the strategy will be against Texas A&M.
The head coach said, "When it goes good, you're making first downs, you're going really fast, they're not getting lined up."
The Rebels are averaging 21.5 seconds per play on the season, but two of the last three games have been far slower. Ole Miss averaged 22.5 seconds per play against Liberty and a snail's pace of 25 seconds per play against LSU.
There are plenty of reasons for the down shift in gears from injuries to specific matchups against the opponent's defense. That changes against Texas A&M, which substitutes a 4-2-5 scheme to a 3-2-6 package on second and third downs with long yardage.
The Ole Miss offense will run tempo under 20 seconds per play to prevent substitutions and create one-on-one matchups in space.
Corral's ankle injury may be fully healed, especially after a Liberty game with no designed runs in the play log.
Although Ole Miss has hit four straight unders and Texas A&M has not logged an over on the road in 2021, this is a prime spot for the Rebels to go tempo against a defense they cannot beat by lining up and pounding Conner and Ealy.
As for Texas A&M, explosiveness through the skill positions will keep the points rolling on the scoreboard for the Aggies. Calzada will begin to strike with the play-action passing attack once the Rebel defenders bite on runs from Achane and Spiller.
The Action Network projection sets the total at 58.5, just above the current market number.
The biggest key number in totals is 55, a number that was steamed through in early-week betting. Also in the top five of key numbers is 59, making this a buy on the over.
For the side, The Action Network projects this game as a pick'em, giving value to the current juiced +2.5 on the board for Ole Miss.
