Texas vs. Oklahoma State Odds & Picks: Bet On a Classic Big 12 Saturday Showdown in Stillwater

Texas vs. Oklahoma State Odds

Oklahoma State will put its Big 12-best scoring defense to the test Saturday when it faces Texas, which boasts the conference's best scoring offense in this highly-anticipated showdown.

The Cowboys moved to 3-0 in conference play last week and sit in the driver's seat of the Big 12 Championship race. Texas, meanwhile, will try to claw its way back into the picture after suffering two early losses.

Texas Longhorns

The Longhorn offense runs completely through senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who is on pace to have the best season of his storied career. Suffice to say, Ehlinger will go down as one of the best in Texas history.

Through five games, Ehlinger has thrown 17 touchdowns, which is good enough for second-most in the country. Ehlinger also has seven touchdowns on the ground, which is the same number he had all of last season.

The Longhorns are averaging 45 points per game, which leads the Big 12 and ranks fourth in the nation among teams that have played more than one game.

Texas lost its top two receivers from last season to the NFL, but Joshua Moore has emerged as Ehlinger's favorite target after being suspended for the 2019 season. Moore has 21 catches for 328 yards, and his six touchdown receptions are the most in the conference.

Texas has not only been good at creating points on its drives, but it's even better turning them into touchdowns. The Longhorns have found the end zone on 22 of their 31 trips to the red zone, ranking 19th in Finishing Drives.

The Longhorns' defense has been slightly better than last year's debacle, but it's still nothing to write home about. Its 32.2 points allowed per game is 63rd in the country, with only Texas Tech and Kansas allowing more points in the conference.

The defense is especially porous against the pass, ranking 71st in the country in Passing Success and allowing 251.8 yards per game through the air. Once again, the biggest struggle for Texas has been the amount of missed tackles for its defense.

When you face a team with elite playmakers like Oklahoma State, one missed tackle can turn into six points very quickly.

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State has one of the best three-headed monsters in all of college football, finally getting the trio on the field together for a full game last week.

Quarterback Spencer Sanders returned after suffering an ankle injury in the first game of the season, and while he looked a little rusty while throwing two interceptions, he still went 20-for-29 for 235 yards and a touchdown. Sanders also got it going on the ground, running for 71 yards and a score.

Running back Chuba Hubbard surprised a lot of people when he decided to return to Stillwater this season instead of heading to the NFL after leading the country in rushing last season.

Hubbard is once again one of the best running backs in college football, averaging 119.5 yards per game and has scored a touchdown in every game.

After leading the Big 12 in receiving yards in 2018, receiver Tylan Wallace played only eight games last season before a torn ACL ended his year.

Now, the Biletnikoff Award finalist is fully healthy and back atop the Big 12 receiving leaderboard with 401 yards in four games. Wallace had the best game of his career against Texas in 2018, torching the Longhorns for 222 yards and two touchdowns on 10 receptions.

The big story so far this season has been the Oklahoma State defense. The Cowboys rank eighth in scoring defense, allowing just 12 points per game. Oklahoma State sits in the top 10 in both Rushing Success and Passing Success, plus it holds the No. 9 spot in Havoc created.

The one area of weakness for the defense is that it's been giving up big plays, as it ranks 45th in passing explosiveness. Just last week, Iowa State running back Breece Hall broke off runs of 66 and 70 yards.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I'm not fully buying into this Oklahoma State defense just yet. This is a unit that ranked 82nd last season, allowing 412 yards per game. It also ranked 102nd in passing defense.

While there's no denying defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has the Cowboys' defense much improved, is this really what we can expect all season? Four games is an incredibly small sample size, especially when the teams it has played were pretty bad on the offensive side of the ball.

As for those opponents, Iowa State ranks a respectable 32nd on offense, according to SP+. However, Tulsa ranks 63rd, West Virginia comes in at 70th, and Kansas is a dismal 118th in the rankings.

Ehlinger is a veteran quarterback and leads the best offense Oklahoma State has faced all season, ranking No. 10 by SP+. The Cowboys finally have all three of their weapons healthy, and the offense could have a coming-out party.

Sanders had a game to shake the rust off and faces a defense that ranked 71st in Passing Success. More importantly, these teams scored 66 points in their meeting last year and 73 two seasons back.

With offensive weapons all over the field, take the over in this spot.

Pick: Over 58.5 (up to 61)