Toledo vs Miami (OH) Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Oh baby, we've got some great MACtion Saturday afternoon as the Toledo Rockets will travel to Oxford, Ohio to take on the Miami RedHawks. Both of these teams enter this matchup at 6-1, and this duel can very much determine who wins the regular season title.
We have the great Rockets offensive attack against this stingy RedHawks defense, and we will see who gets the upper hand.
Let's break down this excellent matchup and uncover some betting value.
Toledo Rockets
The Rockets enter this matchup at 6-1, but their overall body of work has me a bit concerned. They barely escaped Ball State and QB Dequan Finn only finished with 166 yards.
The rushing attack was efficient for the Rockets, as has been the case all season long. This is an offense that is 23rd in Rushing Success Rate and an impressive eighth in Line Yards.
The big edge the Rockets will have is in the offensive trench, as the RedHawks are 119th in Defensive Line Yards. They should get enough push against this defensive line, despite the RedHawks excelling at stopping the run.
I assume HC Jason Candle's game plan will be to win the time of possession battle. The RedHawks are a snail on offense, so it'll be interesting to see if the Rockets can sustain long drives with a lot of clock churning due to their rushing attack.
Defensively, I have a few concerns in this matchup. Despite ranking 10th in both PFF coverage and tackling, this Rockets defense has been exposed at times throughout the year.
They are excellent against the pass, but this defensive line has been getting gashed all season long. The Rockets are 90th in Defensive Rush Success Rate and 100th in Line Yards.
If the RedHawks are able to establish an identity on the ground, this defense is going to be on the field for the majority of the game.
The key for the Rockets to win this game will be to get off the field on third down or else this offense may not have enough time to establish any sort of rhythm against this tough defense.
Miami RedHawks
The RedHawks — to me — are the best team in the MAC, but we will quickly find out if this team is for real Saturday afternoon. This is a team that is efficient on both sides of the ball, and they will be tested against this Rockets team.
It's put up or shut up time for Chuck Martin, as he will look to take a stranglehold on the MAC standings. Quite frankly, I think the RedHawks are more than up for the task.
Taking a look at their schedule, the RedHawks haven't faced a true gauntlet, but the impressive win against Cincinnati catches my attention. The Rockets' toughest opponent thus far has been Illinois, and that is their only loss.
QB Brett Gabbert continues to put up solid numbers for the RedHawks, as he's coming off a two-TD performance against Western Michigan. Gabbert can be turnover-prone at times, but I expect him to exploit this weak Toledo secondary in this matchup.
I mentioned this offense moves at a snail's pace, which is why I think it should hold a significant edge over the Rockets in this spot. The Rockets love to run the ball, but this RedHawks defense has the chops to limit possessions and dictate the pace.
The defensive edge this RedHawks team has over the Rockets is what will be the difference in this matchup. The Rockets do a good job at preventing Havoc on offense, but I think these numbers can be easily skewed because of their strength of schedule.
The RedHawks find themselves inside the top 60 in almost every defensive category, including 32nd in defensive Havoc. This is also the No. 2 team in the nation in Special Teams, which may end up being the difference in a close contest.
Toledo vs. Miami (OH)
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Miami (OH) match up statistically:
Toledo Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 41 | |
| Line Yards | 8 | 119 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 9 | 58 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 41 |  |
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Toledo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 61 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 100 | |
| Pass Success | 49 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 37 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 10 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 10 | 42 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 62 | 2 |
| Middle 8 | 24 | 67 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.6 (47) | 31.2 (131) |
| Rush Rate | 61.2% (9) | 60.0% (29) |
Toledo vs. Miami (OH)
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is going to be an incredible game, but I think this is shaping up to be a victorious afternoon for the RedHawks. I love what they're able to do on the defensive side of the ball, and I think they should be able to stifle this Toledo rushing attack.
This is finally the time for Martin's team to make a statement, and it'll have the luxury of playing in front of a juiced-up home crowd. I think the Special Teams edge will play a huge factor, as there's a good chance this could come down to who has the ball last.
The public seems to be all over the Rockets, which isn't too surprising given recency bias in years past.
I love the RedHawks in this spot, and I expect them to take a stranglehold on the MAC regular season standings.
