UNLV vs. Air Force Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18 -115 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | +650 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18 -105 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | -1000 |
The UNLV Rebels have finally started to show some signs of life over the last three weeks.
The Rebels found back-to-back victories over New Mexico and Hawaii before losing by one score to San Diego State last week. UNLV outgained the Aztecs by over 100 yards of total offense but was unable to complete the upset as 11-point underdogs.
This week they will match up against the Air Force Falcons who just narrowly escaped Nevada in triple overtime last week. Air Force led by two touchdowns for much of the game before a late Wolfpack rally sent the game into overtime.
The Mountain West Mountain Division has three teams — Air Force, Utah State, and Boise State — all tied with a 5-2 record in conference. Air Force virtually controls its own destiny as the Falcons hold the tiebreaker over the other two teams thanks to head-to-head wins.
UNLV has been playing better, but will it be able to slow down the triple-option Air Force offense and keep this game inside the number?
UNLV Rebels
UNLV lost its first eight games of the season by an average score of 20-37. Over the last three, it's outscored opponents by an average of 26-19.
The Rebels have had a quarterback carousel going all season that has seen three separate players under center. It will likely be junior Justin Rogers who gets the start in this game after throwing for 305 yards on 21 attempts against San Diego State last weekend.
Running back Charles Williams was limited against San Diego State, but his production this season has been the only constant for this offense. He’s averaged 4.9 yards per carry while averaging over 117 yards per game. He has punched in 12 rushing touchdowns and exploded two weeks ago against Hawaii where he ran for 266 yards.
UNLV slowed down the San Diego State rushing attack last week by holding it to just 3.1 yards per carry. But once again, the unit was torched through the air, as it allowed three touchdowns.
On the season, UNLV has allowed 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 26 touchdowns through the aerial attack.
The Rebels will be at a serious disadvantage in terms of creating Havoc, as they rank 107thand match up against an Air Force offense that ranks fourth in the nation in preventing Havoc.
Air Force Falcons
The Air Force defense was impressive for the first half last week, holding Nevada to just a field goal in the opening 30 minutes.
The Falcons' pass rush dominated the Wolf Pack offensive line and tallied eight sacks in the game. However, Carson Strong led the Nevada offense down the field twice in the fourth quarter to send the game into overtime. Air Force ultimately pulled out the victory, 41-39.
The Air Force triple-option attack has averaged 5.0 yards per carry and ranks fourth in Rush Success Rate. The Falcons average over 325 rushing yards per game and have seen 79% of their offensive production come from the ground game.
Running back Brad Roberts leads the team in carries and has averaged 4.5 yards per rush. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels complements him and has averaged 5.0 yards per carry. The two have combined for 53% of the rushing yards and punched in 20 touchdowns.
The Air Force defense has been one of the top units in stopping the run allowing 3.3 yards per carry and eighth in Rush Success Rate allowed. Against the pass, it's proven to be susceptible, allowing 7.2 yards per attempt.
It thrives in getting to opposing quarterbacks and has accumulated 30.5 sacks but will have a tough matchup against a strong UNLV offensive line.
UNLV vs. Air Force Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and Air Force match up statistically:
UNLV Offense vs. Air Force Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 113 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 102 | 47 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 23 | 16 | |
| Big Play | 111 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 124 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 38 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Air Force Offense vs. UNLV Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 4 | 19 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 115 | 120 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 96 | 87 | |
| Big Play | 116 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 96 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 105 | 11 |
| Coverage | 101 | 46 |
| Middle 8 | 125 | 62 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 82 | 104 |
| Plays per Minute | 122 | 119 |
| Rush Rate | 54.2% (70) | 87.4% (3) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
UNLV vs. Air Force Betting Pick
UNLV is playing inspired football over the last three games, and though it doesn't have anything to play for, it's a tough matchup for Air Force. The few strengths the UNLV football team has align directly with the strengths of Air Force.
UNLV has been putrid at defending the pass, but it won’t have to worry about that, as Air Force ranks third in the nation in rush rate. The Rebels rank 19th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 35th in Line Yards. Moving the ball won’t be easy for Air Force in this game.
On the other side of the ball, Air Force’s strength is rushing the passer, but UNLV will be able to limit that as it owns the 23rd-ranked pass-blocking unit.
Air Force has only been a double-digit favorite once all season, and 18 points is too much to lay against a rejuvenated UNLV program.
