Utah vs. Oregon State Odds
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Raise your hand if in August you had this contest between Oregon State and Utah as a matchup between the current Pac-12 North and South leaders.
That's exactly where we're at.
The Beavers sit tied with in-state rival Oregon atop the Pac-12 North standings at 2-1. Oregon State went on the road to Los Angeles and dominated USC, 45-27, before returning home and beating Washington with a game-winning field goal, 27-24.
There was a loss to Washington State following that victory, but the Beavers now get two weeks to prepare for this matchup at home against Utah.
Meanwhile, the Utes have responded nicely in conference play after a brutal start to the season in nonconference play. Utah dropped back-to-back games on the road to BYU and SDSU to start the year, and starting quarterback Charlie Brewer left the program.
Kyle Whittingham's teams always seem to find their stride in conference play, and this year is no different. Utah remains perfect in Pac-12 play, with wins over Washington State, USC, and last week against Arizona State.
Both of these teams have some positive momentum brewing right now, and this week will go a long way in deciding the divisional winners within the conference.
Utah Utes
Two ugly losses coupled with news of Brewer leaving town had many in Salt Lake City discouraged about how this season would play out for the Utes.
Sophomore QB Cameron Rising deserves a lot of the credit in helping make the turnaround possible. Since taking over under center, Rising has completed over 65% of his passes and thrown for nine touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Tavion Thomas and TJ Pledger form a nice one-two punch out of the backfield, which has led to an improved running game for Utah in recent weeks.
Defensively, Morgan Scalley's troops continue to be stout, particularly against the run. Linebacker Devin Lloyd currently leads the conference in tackles, and the defensive line has already combined for 10 sacks in conference play.
Getting after Oregon State QB Chance Nolan figures to be a key focal point for the Utes on Saturday night.
Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers ended 2020 with a nice jolt when they defeated arch-rival Oregon to end the year. That momentum has carried over to 2021.
Veteran running back B.J. Baylor has been the straw that stirs the drink for the Oregon State offense. Baylor is averaging nearly seven yards a carry on the ground, and the senior has already found the end zone nine times. When Jonathan Smith needs a big play, he dials something up to get the ball in Baylor's hands.
One thing that has really helped the Oregon State offense is its performance in the red zone. The Beavers rank third nationally in Finishing Drives, having come away with a touchdown on 21-of-30 trips to the red zone thus far. Keeping that trend going against a stingy Utah defense will go a long way in deciding this outcome.
On the other side of the ball, it has been a bit of a mixed bag for Oregon State. The Beavers struggle to stop the run, and they've allowed a good number of big plays to opposing offenses.
What they are doing, however, is creating Havoc. This defense forced four turnovers in the win at USC and two more in the home win over Washington. This has allowed it to get off the field in big moments and control the time of possession in each win.
It feels like the Beavs will need to force a takeaway or two in this one if they want to pull off the upset.
Utah vs. Oregon State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and Oregon State match up statistically:
Utah Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 63 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 52 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 102 | 100 |  |
| Big Play | 78 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 65 | 11 | |
| Finishing Drives | 46 | 63 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oregon State Offense vs. Utah Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 76 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 79 | |
| Pass Success | 66 | 46 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 89 | 66 | |
| Big Play | 16 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 16 | |
| Finishing Drives | 3 | 45 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 45 | 119 |
| Coverage | 62 | 43 |
| Middle 8 | 96 | 17 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 123 | 29 |
| Plays per Minute | 63 | 98 |
| Rush Rate | 49.2% (105) | 62.4% (21) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Utah vs. Oregon State Betting Pick
Utah opened around a 3- to 3.5-point favorite in this game, and the line has continued to hover right around that spot at the time of writing.
I really like what Smith is doing right now in Corvallis, and I actually make the Beavers a slight favorite in this matchup.
One area that should not be understated in what should be a close game is special teams, where I give the Beavers a significant edge.
OSU should be able to move the ball efficiently on the ground throughout this game behind Baylor, and I think the defense is equipped to get some timely stops.
Utah struggles to generate big plays offensively, and that has been where Oregon State has been most susceptible through its first six contests.
The situational spot in this game should not be ignored, either. Oregon State is coming off of a bye, while Utah heads North after a hard-fought battle last week against Arizona State.
I'm rolling with the Beavers and the points in what should be a fun #Pac12AfterDark matchup in Corvallis.
