UTEP vs. North Texas Odds
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -115 | 55 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -105 | 55 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Saturday afternoon will mark a huge point in the season for UTEP. While the Miners have already achieved bowl eligibility and are likely out of the running for the Conference USA championship game, there is still one point to prove in what has been a fantastic season.
The always daunting trip to Denton to face the North Texas Mean Green.
North Texas is only 3-6 on the season and has lost its last three home games, but it has always found a way to perform against the Miners. The Mean Green are 4-0 in their last four games against UTEP, outscoring them 169-103 combined in those contests.
Ruining the Mean Green's homecoming would be a perfect way to top off their best season since 2014, and this Miners team has the talent to do it.
UTEP Miners
The Miners may have won four of their last six games, but last week's 44-23 loss to undefeated UTSA was a bit of a letdown. Coming off two straight losses, I expect them to be hungry for a win. The Miners are 2-2 on the road this season.
Quarterback Gavin Hardison is completing 54.3% of his passes and has accounted for 2,123 yards, 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Protecting Hardison will be huge for the Miners this week. The more time Hardison has to find receiver Jacob Cowing the more likely the Miners will come away with a win. However, that may be easier said than done as North Texas ranks 40th in the country in sack percentage 7.54%.
But UTEP only throws the ball on 42% of plays. For the most part, the Miners offense begins and ends with running back Ronald Awatt, who leads the team with 586 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 5.2 yards per carry through nine games.
Defensively, UTEP is allowing 23 points and 325.8 yards per game. You wouldn't believe that for a second if you watched the Miners last week, though.
UTSA was only the third team all season that the Miners allowed to gain more than 300 yards of offense. The Roadrunners hung 561 yards and 44 points, split almost equally with 285 passing yards and 276 on the ground.
The good news is the Mean Green are a far cry from the Roadrunners. Expect this Miners defense to get back to their standard this week.
North Texas Mean Green
People talk about home-field advantage and how it can affect a game — the crowd and the familiarity can be a huge factor for many college football teams.
That is not the case for North Texas, the Mean Green have won just one game at home this season and it was against a Southland opponent in Northwestern State. You'd think they're looking forward to their homecoming as they enter on a two-game win streak, but I'm not positive that's the case.
Quarterback Austin Aune has completed 52.2% of his passes for 1,188 yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.
Much like the Miners, though, this offense lives and dies with the run. The Mean Green rank 18th in the country, averaging 213.2 rush yards per game. Most of that yardage comes from the lead back Deandre Torrey, who has accounted for 936 yards so far this season and eight touchdowns.
Even if the UTEP defense returns to the consistency it's had so far this season, I still expect Torrey to be a massive factor in this game.
Defensively, North Texas is allowing 31.4 points and 393.9 yards per contest in 2021, including 150 on the ground.
UTEP vs. North Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTEP and North Texas match up statistically:
UTEP Offense vs. North Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 126 | 59 | |
| Pass Success | 29 | 20 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 31 | 4 | |
| Big Play | 100 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 47 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 56 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
North Texas Offense vs. UTEP Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 30 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 29 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 114 | 32 | |
| Big Play | 113 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 33 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 12 | 98 |
| Coverage | 71 | 118 |
| Middle 8 | 88 | 101 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 52 | 102 |
| Plays per Minute | 121 | 4 |
| Rush Rate | 59.9% (31) | 59.7% (32) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
UTEP vs. North Texas Betting Pick
This game has been somewhat of a lopsided affair the past few years and I don't think UTEP has forgotten that, but it's hard to gauge where these two teams are heading into this game.
North Texas is riding high and will likely look to make a point with a win at home — where they've been awful this year. Meanwhile, the Miners may have lost some of the wind in their sails after two losses in a row.
That causes me to lean to the total in this game. Both these teams rely heavily on the run and have displayed solid run defense throughout the year.
I also expect this to be a hard-fought game on both sides. Finally, both teams have success on third down (North Texas converts 38% and allows only 40%, while UTEP converts just 33% and allows even less at 31%).
With all of that, I've found myself betting the under in this game. I bet the under at 55 and I would take it as low as 53.5.
