Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech Odds
| Virginia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +155 |
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -4 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -180 |
Virginia Tech had a chance to get its season back on track, leading by nine against Syracuse in the fourth quarter last week.
The Hokies surrendered a touchdown, failed to run out the clock on offense, punted to Syracuse and then, allowed the Orange to march the length of the field and connect on the game-winning score in Blacksburg.
As time expired, chants of "Fire Fuente" yet again rang out across Lane Stadium, as head coach Justin Fuente's job security becomes more and more perilous with each passing week.
The Hokies won their first game in impressive fashion against UNC, but have now lost four of five and are sliding. However, even in defeat, the offense showed enough last week both on the ground and through the air against a solid Syracuse defense that this game vs. Georgia Tech should be lined closer to a field goal.
Georgia Tech's defense has looked quite vulnerable in recent weeks — especially during losses against Virginia and Pittsburgh and during a close win against Duke.
The Yellow Jackets still have a turnover-prone quarterback in Jeff Sims, and the narrative surrounding VT is inflating this spread beyond what it should really be.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech Offense
The Hokies' offense had been trending downward entering last week. The unit struggled mightily against both Notre Dame and Pittsburgh.
Last week, though, was a significant improvement against Syracuse. The Hokies averaged 5.9 yards per rush and 8.9 yards per pass. They totaled 437 yards and 36 points.
Virginia Tech doesn't have great rushing numbers overall after those games against Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, but the Georgia Tech run defense isn't particularly good either.
VT should be able to move the ball on the ground in this game. The Yellow Jackets' rushing defense is just 84th in Success Rate Allowed and the group is below average in tackling grades, per Pro Football Focus.
The Hokies' pass offense struggles to keep the chains moving, but it can produce plenty of explosiveness. Given the Yellow Jackets' poor PFF coverage grades and poor passing explosiveness rating, Virginia Tech will be able to break off multiple big plays through the air.
Virginia Tech Defense
The Hokies really struggled to corral the Syracuse offense last week and an explosive passing play ultimately cost them the game in the final minute.
But VT has been an elite pass defense for most of the season, ranking 11th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 44th in Passing Down Explosiveness Allowed.
The Yellow Jackets can find some big plays on early downs against a subpar VT run defense that was exposed last week, and they'll be able to move the ball and score points.
But if they get into third downs and obvious passing situations, there will be a lot of pressure on Sims to move the chains and not turn the ball over.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech Offense
The Georgia Tech offense can best be described as average in nearly every meaningful statistical offensive category.
The Jackets are a pretty balanced run-to-pass team that struggles with Success Rate numbers. However, they are good at preventing Havoc and negative plays while finding some explosive plays.
If the Yellow Jackets are going to find big plays, they're much more likely to come on early-down runs against a mediocre Hokies run defense than they are on third down against a solid secondary.
The onus will be on Sims to protect the ball since he's thrown five interceptions in his last three starts. The Virginia Tech defense is solid enough on the back end to make a key play or two.
Another key area of battle is once the Jackets do move the ball past the Hokies 40-yard line, where both the Georgia Tech offense has struggled to score points and the Virginia Tech defense has been poor at preventing teams from scoring touchdowns on them.
Georgia Tech Defense
The defense's ability to shut down the Virginia Tech rushing attack and make them totally one-dimensional could turn this game in favor of Georgia Tech.
However, the Yellow Jackets have had trouble with both tackling in space and in coverage. That could lead to explosive plays for Virginia Tech's ground game.
GT enters the game 87th in PFF tackling and 115th in PFF coverage grades defensively, both of which leave them prone to big plays allowed.
While VT hasn't connected on many of them this season, it did produce a handful of explosive plays against the Orange last week.
Virginia Tech may have some three-and-outs in this game given its mediocre Success Rate numbers, so this matchup really comes down to whether the Hokies find big plays.
Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech match up statistically:
Virginia Tech Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 84 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 109 | 105 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 32 | 81 | |
| Big Play | 95 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 71 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 108 | 108 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 68 | 11 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 52 | 74 | |
| Big Play | 21 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 87 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 37 | 87 |
| Coverage | 68 | 115 |
| Middle 8 | 104 | 31 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 57 | 94 |
| Plays per Minute | 77 | 31 |
| Rush Rate | 58.% (45) | 57.% (53) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech Betting Pick
Both the SP+ and Action Network power ratings suggest that Virginia Tech is either the better team, or that they're about equal.
Even if you make home field advantage three points, which data suggests is trending downward, you can't get to the Yellow Jackets being favored by more than a field goal here.
This game should be back-and-forth and may come down to a few plays at either end, but the Yellow Jackets are an overvalued favorite given the narrative surrounding the Virginia Tech program. I'll always take numbers over narrative.
If this game is close late, the Hokies also have a decided special teams edge, based on SP+ numbers.
Virginia Tech showed signs of life on offense last week and moved the ball largely at will against the Orange, so anything over a field goal is good enough for the Hokies in this matchup.
Pick: Virginia Tech +3.5 or better
