Washington State vs. ASU Odds
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 | 53 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -16.5 | 53 -110o / -110u | -675 |
Another fun Pac-12 matchup commences this Saturday, as the Washington State Cougars travel to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils.
The Cougars have been hot and cold. They recently pulled off three straight wins (Cal, Oregon State, Stanford) but are just 4-4 and 5-3 against the spread.
Meanwhile, Arizona State is looking like one of the conference's best teams. But its 14-point loss to Utah in Week 7 was distressing.
Luckily, the Sun Devils are coming off a bye and are primed to dominate a weaker conference opponent.
But does that mean Arizona State has enough juice to cover the large spread?
Washington State Cougars
Mike Leach is long gone — as is pass-happy head coach Nick Rolevich, fired midseason over the vaccine mandate — but the Cougars are still throwing as much as any team in the nation.
Wazzu drops back on 58.1% of its play-calls, which ranks 10th in the nation. As a result, Jayden de Laura has accumulated over 1,700 passing yards and a 15:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season.
Jayden de Laura this Season:
15 TD passes, 5 Ints, 150.3 QB Rating
— WestCoastCFB (@WestCoastCFB) October 21, 2021
But that doesn't mean the offense has been effective. The Cougars are scoring just 24.9 points per game — good for 91st in the country — while ranking outside the top-50 in Offensive Success Rate.
De Laura isn't getting much help, though. While the offensive line is sixth in pass blocking, they're also 91st in preventing Havoc, and the Cougars' run game is having zero success.
Meanwhile, the defense is a Pac-12 disaster. The Cougars rank outside the top-80 in every meaningful defensive statistic, and Washington State is getting consistently out-gained as a result.
Arizona State Sun Devils
I am a big fan of what the Sun Devils do on offense, specifically on the ground.
Arizona State is averaging over 200 rushing yards per game at 5.5 yards per carry. Rachaad White leads the charge, with 477 rushing yards and nine touchdowns so far this season.
"I can tackle Rachaad White." 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩 pic.twitter.com/ev5FttFYSC
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) October 14, 2021
While the Sun Devils don't grade out well in the passing game, Jayden Daniels has compensated with his legs. He's the team's second-leading rusher, with 401 yards at 5.8 yards per carry, while recording four rushing touchdowns of his own.
All in all, the formula is working. The Sun Devils rank among the top-10 teams in Offensive Success Rate, Rush Success Rate, Line Yards and Big Plays. Herm Edwards' attack is dynamic and dangerous.
While the Sun Devils' defense could be more efficient, it's hard to argue with the results. They're allowing just 18.9 points per game, good for 22nd in the FBS, and rank among the top-25 teams in Havoc.
Washington State vs. Arizona State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington State and Arizona State match up statistically:
Washington State Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 48 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 80 | |
| Pass Success | 51 | 42 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 6 | 63 | |
| Big Play | 59 | 85 | |
| Havoc | 91 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 65 | 34 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Arizona State Offense vs. Washington State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 96 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 93 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 7 | 88 | |
| Big Play | 9 | 81 | |
| Havoc | 68 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 69 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 97 | 41 |
| Coverage | 79 | 48 |
| Middle 8 | 64 | 35 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 41 | 55 |
| Plays per Minute | 95 | 110 |
| Rush Rate | 44.3% (120) | 60.% (33) |
Washington State vs. Arizona State Betting Pick
Arizona State blew its last game against Utah after leading 21-7 at halftime.
But that gets to a larger point about the Sun Devils: They come out of the gate firing. Arizona State has out-scored its opponents 129-78 in the first half this season, failing to lead at the break in just one game (BYU).
This week, Edwards' team is coming off a tough loss, had a bye week to prepare and is facing a defense that is particularly vulnerable against the run (Washington State ranks 112th in Defensive Success Rate this season).
Considering the context, I'm expecting the Sun Devils to start this game aggressively. Plus, it should be easy for them to overpower the Wazzu front seven at the point of attack, considering the Cougars rank 96th in Defensive Line Yards this season.
DraftKings is currently offering Arizona State 1H at -7.5, and that's my favorite bet for this Pac-12 matchup. Look for the Sun Devils to build a double-digit lead in the first half on Saturday.
