Oregon vs. Washington State Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -115 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
Oregon looks to keep its place in the College Football Playoff and wrap up the Pac-12 North division when it hosts Washington State.
It's been a very interesting year for Washington State, which currently sits at 5-4 and 4-2 in the conference, only one game behind Oregon for first place in the Pac-12 North.
Washington State had to make a head-coaching change mid-season, but it seems to not have affected the Cougars, considering they just upset Arizona State 34-21 in Tempe last weekend.
Oregon came in at No. 3 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday, but it needs to win out to have any chance, considering teams behind them have a ton of resume-building games coming up in the last few weeks.
The Ducks are also in a look-ahead spot with a trip to Salt Lake City next weekend to take on Utah, so if they aren't careful, the Cougars could overtake them for first place in the Pac-12 North.
Washington State Cougars
Washington State Offense
Washington State's offense has actually been pretty efficient this season. The Cougars are gaining 5.3 yards per play and rank 52nd in Offensive Success Rate.
Most of their success has come through the air as starting quarterback Jayden de Laura is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and has a 77.7 passing grade with 16 big-time throws this season, per PFF.
WHAT. A. THROW.
Wow, Jayden de Laurapic.twitter.com/VgTDNLXAZR
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 30, 2021
The Washington State passing attack ranks 63rd in Passing Success Rate and 64th in EPA/Pass. However, the Cougars should be able to move the ball on an Oregon secondary that in in the bottom half of college football in most passing defense metrics.
The Cougars' rushing attack hasn't really gotten going this season, as they're only gaining 3.6 yards per carry and rank outside the top 75 in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards.
However, the Oregon run defense hasn't been that dominant and the Ducks are 102nd in tackling, so I think the Cougars will be able to move the ball on Saturday night.
Washington State Defense
The Washington State defense is having all sorts of problems right now. The Cougars are allowing 5.5 yards per play and rank 74th in EPA/Play.
They've had problems versus both the run and the pass, but for a matchup like this against a rush-heavy Oregon offense, their issues in the front seven are likely going to get exposed.
Washington State is 120th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 109th in Defensive Line Yards, and 107th in EPA/Rush, so trying to stop an Oregon rushing attack that's gaining 5.5 yards per play is a nightmare proposition.
The secondary has been halfway decent this season, as the Cougars are only allowing 6.9 yards per attempt and rank 45th in EPA/Pass. However, they're 110th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 79th in terms of coverage, per PFF.
Anthony Brown will likely be able to move the ball against them.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon Offense
The Ducks are led by their rushing attack that has been running right through opposing front sevens. Star running back CJ Verdell is out for the season, but in their last four games without him, Oregon has averaged over 5.0 yards per carry.
A lot of the credit for their success in the running game has to be given to the offensive line.
The Ducks' offensive line 11th in Line Yards and PFF has them graded as the 29th-best run blocking unit in the country, so they should be able to run all over Washington State's front seven.
Brown has had an interesting season as the Ducks' starting quarterback. He has not been elite by any means, as the Ducks are 64th in Passing Success Rate and 52nd in EPA/Pass.
Brown is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt, but only has a 65.4 passing grade with 11 big time throws and nine turnover worthy plays. If the Oregon rushing attack somehow can't get going and the game is put in Brown's hands, Oregon might be in trouble.
Oregon Defense
Oregon defense hasn’t been even close to average this season, as the Ducks are 68th in Success Rate Allowed.
Despite having the best edge rusher in college football, the Oregon front seven hasn't been that great against the run or getting to the quarterback. The Ducks are 71st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 49th in Defensive Line Yards, and 38th in EPA/Rush allowed.
Additionally, the Ducks are only 78th at creating Havoc and only have the 26th-best pass rushing grade, per PFF. Going up against one of the best pass blocking units in the country is not a great matchup for Kayvon Thibodeaux & Co.
Most of the problems with Oregon this season have come in the secondary, which Washington State will be able to exploit. The Ducks are 78th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 67th in EPA/Pass, and 93rd in terms of a coverage grade, per PFF.
De Laura should be able to not only have time to throw, but move the ball with ease against this Oregon secondary, opening up a lot of backdoor possibilities.
Washington State vs. Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington State and Oregon match up statistically:
Washington State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 71 | |
| Line Yards | 78 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 63 | 78 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 7 | 26 | |
| Big Play | 32 | 47 | |
| Havoc | 91 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 53 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oregon Offense vs. Washington State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 11 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 110 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 60 | 89 | |
| Big Play | 38 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 12 | 63 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 80 | 102 |
| Coverage | 79 | 93 |
| Middle 8 | 63 | 50 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 53 | 6 |
| Plays per Minute | 97 | 52 |
| Rush Rate | 46.2% (118) | 58.2% (42) |
Washington State vs. Oregon Betting Pick
Even though Washington State's run defense has a terrible matchup against Oregon's rushing attack, I do think de Laura will be able to move the ball through the air on Oregon's poor secondary, which in turn will keep Washington State in this game.
Additionally, with Oregon in a lookahead spot facing Utah a week from now, we could see the Ducks shut it down in the second half, opening up the back door possibility for Washington State with how efficient its passing attack has been.
I only have Oregon projected at -8.78, so I think there is some value on the Cougars at +14, which is currently available at PointsBet, and would play it down to +13.
