Week 11 College Football Best Bets
Our Top 3 Picks for Saturday's Noon Slate
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today's Noon ET slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Baylor
Saturday, Nov. 13 Noon ET FOX |
Baylor +6.5  |
Oklahoma heads to Waco fresh off a bye week and sitting unblemished at 9-0 and No. 8 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. You have to think head coach Lincoln Riley is fired up that the Committee elected to slot the Sooners below a pair of Michigan schools that each have a loss.
Meanwhile, Baylor heads back home after a disappointing loss to rival TCU in a game the Bears probably let slip away.
Baylor needs to turn the page quickly, as it’s still alive in the Big 12 race but has to win this weekend to keep its Big 12 Championship hopes alive.
I believe there’s real value in Baylor catching almost a touchdown in this game. The Bears have one of the stiffest defenses that Caleb Williams and this Oklahoma offense have seen thus far.
Baylor has been great in stopping the run all year, and Oklahoma’s offensive attack is heavily dependent on the rushing combo of Williams and Kennedy Brooks.
The Bears come in at 20th in the nation in Defensive Rush Success, and I expect them to be one of the first teams this year that will be able to force Williams to consistently make plays with his arm.
On the other side of the ball, there are some real matchup advantages for Gerry Bohanon and the Bears offense. The Sooner defense has been susceptible to big plays, and they come in at 85th in the country in defending the pass.
An experienced Baylor offensive line should be able to give Bohanon the time he needs to find open receivers against a vulnerable Oklahoma secondary.
Ultimately, I believe there’s a pretty decent chance the Bears win this game outright, given some of the defensive issues the Sooners have. I worry a little bit about Riley having two weeks to game plan for this matchup, but that will not make up for some of the clear matchup advantages Baylor has in this game.
Sic ‘em Bears, and give me +6.5.
Pick: Baylor +6.5
Houston vs. Temple
Saturday, Nov. 13 Noon ET ESPN+ |
Houston -24.5  |
This time of year with the season winding down and just three weeks left, it’s crucial to try and figure out which teams will continue to fight and which teams could throw in the towel.
Temple looks like a team that has quit. In their last four games, the Owls have been outscored, 180-27. Last week, they lost to East Carolina, 45-3. The week before, UCF pounded them, 49-7. Prior to that, a South Florida team that hadn’t beaten an FBS school in two years beat the Owls, 34-14.
Don’t be surprised if Rod Carey is out of a job before Dec. 1, and don’t be surprised if Houston runs it up here.
Since the team’s Week 1 loss at Texas Tech, Houston has won eight straight games, and quarterback Clayton Tune has 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Tune has a 78.7% adjusted completion percentage, per Pro Football Focus, and is graded as the ninth-best passer of all quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks.
The Cougs are 10th in the country, averaging 39.1 points per game. They rank 10th in Finishing Drives and have scored a touchdown on 75% of their red-zone attempts, tied with Alabama for seventh in the country.
As good as Houston’s offense has been, the defense is even better. It’s allowed the fewest yards per game in the AAC and ranks ninth in the country.
Houston ranks eighth in Pass Success Rate on defense and should have no problem stopping Temple through the air.
When Temple tries to run the ball, that plays right into Houston’s strength. Good luck running the ball against this front seven. The Cougars rank seventh in the country in Rush Success and sixth in Line Yards. Opponents are averaging just 2.9 yards per rush.
This front seven is also dominant in passing situations and is ranked as one of the top pass rushes in the country. It ranks 12th in Havoc rate and thrives at getting into the backfield.
Temple’s offense has been held under 300 yards in each of the last four games and is averaging just 6.75 points per game over that stretch.
The Owls rank 116th in Pass Success Rate, 89th in Rushing Success, 97th in Line Yards and 126th in Finishing Drives. Their 18.2 points per game mark ranks 120th in the country.
I think Temple will be lucky to score more than 10 points here, and Houston should be able to name its score on offense.
Back the Cougars to run it up on Saturday.
Pick: Houston -24.5
Houston vs. Temple
Saturday, Nov. 13 Noon ET ESPN+ |
Houston -24.5  |
Things are clicking in Year 3 of the Dana Holgorsen era at Houston.
The Cougars are ranked No. 17 in the nation and have won eight straight games after dropping their season opener to Texas Tech. Houston is 5-4 against the spread this season but has performed well on the road, going 4-1 against the number when playing away from John O’Quinn Field.
The Action Network’s Road Streak PRO System has been activated for this matchup given the Cougars’ success on the road this season.
A win here would be Houston’s fourth consecutive AAC road victory. Houston has its eye on a conference championship appearance, and a win on Saturday will guarantee the Cougars’ place in the AAC Championship against Cincinnati.
The Houston offense is perfectly balanced between the rushing and passing game with a split of 50% between the two. The Cougars have the weapons at both running back and wide receiver to justify a dual-pronged approach.
Last week against South Florida, Houston had multiple 100-yard rushers and multiple 100-yard receivers for the first time in school history.
Weapons are plentiful for junior quarterback Clayton Tune, who is completing over 70% of his passes on the season. Tune has thrown for 19 touchdowns to just six interceptions through nine games.
The Temple Owls are 3-6 on the season but only 1-4 in conference play. The Owls have struggled mightily on defense this season. The permeable defense ranks 121st in scoring defense, surrendering 36.8 points per game.
Things haven’t been much better on the opposite side of the pigskin, where Owls are scoring only 18.2 points per game, tied for 120th in the nation.
Meanwhile, Houston’s electric offense ranks in the top 10 in scoring offense, registering 39.1 points per game. Defensively, the Cougars are again in the top 10, allowing only 299.9 yards per game.
The difference between the two teams becomes even more stark when comparing the Success Rates of the two offenses and defenses.
Based on a combination of traditional and advanced statistics, my model is projecting the Cougars as 34.85-point favorites. This is a big number to lay, but the Cougars have the offensive weapons to cover in addition to a stout defense.
Houston has been at home on the road this season and shouldn’t have a problem putting away the Owls. Lay the 24.5 points in Philly.
Pick: Houston -24.5
