Week 5 of the college football season has arrived, and Action Network staff writer BJ Cunningham has you covered.
Cunningham broke down four games for Saturday's college football slate and came through with picks for Kentucky vs. Ole Miss, BYU vs. Baylor, Louisville vs. Notre Dame and Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech.
So, whether you're looking to start the day with some action or bet one of this week's ranked matchups in the afternoon, Cunningham has you covered.
Check out college football odds and picks for Week 5, including Cunningham's full Action Network betting card, below.
BJ Cunningham's Week 5 College Football Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Pick
The Ole Miss Rebels (4-0) look to stay undefeated as they host the Kentucky Wildcats (2-2) at Vaught Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi, on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Kentucky has had some mixed results this season. Mark Stoops' team was blown out in its SEC opener at home by South Carolina, and then the following week, it took Georgia to the brink, losing 13-12 while causing the Bulldogs to relinquish their No. 1 ranking.
They rebounded with a dominant 41-6 win over Ohio — in which the offense put up almost 500 yards — but this is going to be a very difficult game on both sides of the ball.
Ole Miss has been dominant so far this season. Lane Kiffin's offense is humming as it's averaging 55 points per game with Jaxson Dart at QB, who's one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy.
The difference this year is the Rebels' dominant defense, which has only given up a total 22 points through four games. While all of that is impressive, their schedule hasn't been very difficult, so this will be their biggest test of the season so far.
The Rebels are still 17.5-point favorites on the spread, though, and are -850 on the moneyline. Also, the total comes in at 53.
Continue below for my Kentucky vs. Ole Miss prediction for Saturday, September 28.
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky's offense is abysmal whenever it has to face a good defense. The Wildcats put up over 30 points against Southern Miss and Ohio, but only scoring a combined 19 points against Georgia and South Carolina is really concerning.
It all starts with their run game — because if that isn't working, they're in trouble.
Lead back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye really struggled to break off big runs against South Carolina and Georgia. He did end up averaging over four yards per carry, which is a positive, but for the season, Kentucky is 131st in rushing explosiveness.
The goal against Ole Miss is going to be control the clock and try to run the ball as effectively as possible to keep the ball out of Dart's hands.
If Kentucky isn't able to run the ball effectively against one of the best run defenses in the country, then that's going to put the pressure on Brock Vandagriff to beat his opponent with his arm, which he hasn't been able to do this season.
Vandagriff was good against Southern Miss and Ohio, but he's been pretty bad against SEC-level defenses.
The Kentucky defense has been really impressive this season and was the only reason it was in the game against Georgia. It starts up front with the Wildcats' ability to not only stop the run, but put pressure on the quarterback.
Ole Miss is putting up gaudy rushing numbers through four games, but against Georgia, Kentucky held the Bulldogs to just 3.2 yards per carry, and for the season, it's 16th in EPA/Rush allowed.
The Wildcats also will be able to put some pressure on Dart, as they're sixth in the country in Havoc. That's massive because Dart has basically been throwing from a clean pocket all season long.
Ole Miss Rebels
Kiffin's offense has been dominating everyone, but this will be its first true test. The Rebels are the No. 1 offense in the country in terms of success rate and are second in EPA per play.
Dart has been incredible, as he leads the country in EPA and also has the highest PFF passing grade at 93.7. The reason for that? His offensive line has done a great job in pass protection, and there's not a better quarterback in the country when throwing from a clean pocket.
Dart has only been pressured on 12% of his drop backs, but given the way Kentucky is able to generate Havoc, that's likely going to change.
Last season, when Dart was throwing from a crowded pocket, his numbers dropped quite a bit.
The other question is how effective Ole Miss' rushing attack is going to be against a defensive line that's eighth in the country in defensive line yards.
Henry Parrish Jr. has been running the ball really effectively this season, averaging 7.3 yards per carry with seven touchdowns. Also, the offensive line is fifth in line yards, but that's against a very soft schedule with quite frankly some really bad defenses.
What's changed this season for Ole Miss is it has a really good defense. Last year, its biggest problem by far was giving up big plays, as it ranked 129th in the country in explosiveness allowed.
Pete Golding seems to have turned things around this season, as the Rebels returned a lot of production from last year and now are second in the country in success rate allowed.
The biggest thing in this game is going to be stopping the run. Ole Miss has a really good defensive front that's only allowing 1.2 yards per carry, which is the best mark in the country.
It all starts up front, where the Rebels are also No. 1 in the country in defensive line yards. It'll be big if they can stop Kentucky's rushing attack, given how limited the Cats are in the passing game.
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Prediction
Even though Ole Miss' offense has been putting up a crazy amount of points, this is the first real defense it'll face this season.
Stoops and Kiffin went toe-to-toe in 2022 when Dart was the starting quarterback, and it resulted in a 22-19 thriller. On that day, Ole Miss was able to put up almost 400 yards of offense, but Stoops' defense limited the Rebels in the red zone.
The way Kentucky wins this game is by controlling the clock. It has to do what it did against Georgia, which is run the ball effectively, play at its incredibly slow pace and keep Ole Miss' offense off the field.
Kentucky is running the ball at a 63% rate, so even if it goes down early, I don't think it's going to suddenly panic, try to play fast and throw the ball at a high rate.
For Ole Miss' offense, this will be a really good test, as it hasn't faced even close to a defense it's going to see on Saturday. Given the way Kentucky was able to slow down Georgia's offense, I think it can do the same here.
I only have 50.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 53.5 points.
Pick: Under 53.5
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BYU vs. Baylor Pick
The BYU Cougars (4-0) look to build off its upset win over Kansas State when it travels to Texas to take on the Baylor Bears (2-2).
BYU pulled off a big upset late Saturday night in Provo, dominating Kansas State 38-9. The win keeps the Cougars undefeated, and they've already passed two big road tests in beating SMU and Wyoming, so they looked well equipped to fill their role as underdogs on Saturday.
Baylor lost in heartbreaking fashion late Saturday night in Boulder, as Colorado was able complete a Hail Mary on the final play and ended up beating the Bears in overtime.
The loss dropped Baylor to .500 and head coach Dave Aranda is already on one of the hottest seats in college football.
Baylor needs this win, but will it get it? Let's get to my BYU vs. Baylor prediction.
BYU Cougars
Jake Retzlaff started the final four games of the regular season for BYU last year, and it didn't go well. He only averaged 5.1 yards per attempt and had a 46.7 PFF passing grade.
However, this season, he's drastically improved, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and bumping his PFF passing grade up to 72.3.
His main problem is turning the ball over, as he's already had six turnover worthy plays in four games. The good news for him is that Baylor's defense is below average in terms of generating Havoc.
BYU has struggled to run the ball, and even though it put up 38 points against Kansas State, it only had 92 rushing yards and averaged 3.4 yards per carry. For the season, the Cougars are 88th in rushing success rate.
The biggest problem is that they don't have their best running back, LJ Martin, available. He wasn't listed on the depth chart for this upcoming game, which means freshman Sione I Moa will be getting a load of the carries again.
The BYU defense had a field day against a below average quarterback on Saturday night, forcing three turnovers and holding the Wildcats to just nine points.
The bright spot has been the Cougars secondary, which is 12th in passing success rate allowed and 18th in passing explosiveness allowed. They came into last season with zero returning starters, but essentially have five back this season and are already seeing drastic improvements.
Baylor Bears
There are questions about who will start at quarterback for Baylor. Dequan Finn missed the previous game against Colorado with a shoulder injury, but after that game, one thing is pretty clear — Sawyer Robertson is a downgrade from Finn.
Robertson really struggled against Colorado and was aided by Baylor's rushing attack. In that game, Robertson went 11-for-21 for 148 yards and had two turnover worthy plays.
The Bears ran the ball effectively for four yards per carry in the game, but haven't been very efficient overall. They rank 98th in rushing success rate as the offensive line just hasn't done a good enough job opening running lanes.
Per PFF, they rank 93rd in terms of a run blocking grade and are also 97th in offensive line yards. That's problem as they'll have to run the ball Saturday because throwing into BYU's secondary is a nightmare right now.
The Baylor defense has been very good this season, despite giving 38 points to Colorado. It all starts with stopping the run, which is a good thing against BYU. The Bears held Colorado to 2.2 yards per carry last Saturday and are 11th in rushing success rate allowed on the season.
Baylor brought back almost everyone on the defensive side of the ball, but it's been pretty shaky against the pass, just like it was last season.
Playing Tarleton State and Air Force is going to make all of Baylor's metrics against the pass look good, but Shedeur Sanders torched the Bears for 341 yards and two touchdowns.
Last season, Baylor was one of the worst secondaries in the country, ranking 128th in EPA/Pass allowed. This season, the Bears are 120th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
BYU vs. Baylor Prediction
In terms of the spot, Baylor would be the play coming off a horrible loss, while BYU is coming off the massive win over Kansas State.
The one thing BYU has proven this season is that it's been good on the road.
This game is going to be a defensive struggle as both teams haven't been able to move the ball effectively and are outside the top 90 in finishing drives.
Retzlaff's improvements give BYU some hope, especially against a really bad Baylor secondary.
Kalani Sitake has also been good as an underdog over his nine seasons at BYU, so I like the value on the Cougars at +3.5.
Pick: BYU +3.5 (Play to +3)
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Louisville vs. Notre Dame Pick
The Louisville Cardinals (3-0) look to remain undefeated when they travel to South Bend, Indiana, to play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-1) at 3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.
The Cardinals took care of business against Georgia Tech, but it wasn't pretty. Tyler Shough had a good game, but Louisville's biggest problem was establishing the run.
Well, it's about to get even more challenging against one of the nation's best rush defenses.
Notre Dame finally cleared the hurdle and beat a MAC team, dominating Miami (OH), 28-3. The loss to Northern Illinois earlier in the season means the Irish must be perfect the rest of the way to have a shot at making the College Football Playoff.
They lost on the road to Louisville last season 33-20, so they will be out for revenge on Saturday.
Notre Dame is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with the moneyline at -235. The total also checks in at 46.5.
Here's my Louisville vs. Notre Dame prediction and pick.
Louisville Cardinals
Before the game against Georgia Tech, Louisville was putting up excellent offensive numbers, but it was against Austin Peay and Jacksonville State. They ran all over those two teams, but the Cardinals' rushing attack was shut down against a feeble Georgia Tech front — Donald Chaney was limited to 23 yards on 10 carries, and Louisville ended up with only 57 total rushing yards.
That's concerning, given that they must rely on their rushing attack in this game with the poor weather conditions and Notre Dame's elite secondary.
Tyler Shough must be just as effective as last weekend but under more difficult conditions.
Shough has battled injuries throughout his career, but he's an above-average quarterback when healthy. He has an 88.4 PFF passing grade this season, averaging an absurd 11.2 YPA — but you can take that with a grain of salt, considering the secondaries he's faced.
Louisville's defensive front is perfect and has effectively stopped the run. The Cardinals limited a rock-solid Georgia Tech rushing attack to only 2.6 yards per carry. They rank fourth nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and second in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
The Cardinals can beat Notre Dame if they limit chunk rushing plays, given Riley Leonard is very limited as a passer.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame's offense took a step back after its best game of the season against Purdue. At this point, it really comes down to whether it can run the ball effectively with Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard.
The Irish have done that effectively in three of their four games this season. They averaged 7.5 YPC last week against Miami (OH). However, they still only rank 61st nationally in Rush Success Rate — they're too reliant on explosives, as they rank second nationally in Rush Explosiveness.
When Notre Dame faces a solid rush defense, Leonard can't beat opponents over the top. That's what happened against Northern Illinois and Miami (OH). That's been a theme for Leonard dating back to his Duke days.
He's averaging 5.6 YPA with a 58.4 PFF Passing grade. He only completed four of his 19 20-plus-air-yard attempts last year with the Blue Devils, and he's 1-for-4 on such passes this year.
Louisville has an excellent rush defense. Notre Dame will be in trouble if it has to rely too heavily on Leonard.
Notre Dame's defense is elite. The Irish have allowed 10 total points across the past two games. The secondary ranks fourth in Pass Success Rate allowed and second in PFF's Passing Defense grades.
However, I'm unsure if the Irish can stop the run. Their rush defense metrics have been shaky, although they've contained chunk rushing plays, ranking 15th in rushing Explosiveness allowed.
Louisville vs. Notre Dame Prediction
Weather will play a big part in this game because it will be very windy. The effects of Hurricane Helene are expected to hit Indiana on Saturday, with projected winds up to 20 mph during the game and gusts reaching as high as 39 mph, per AccuWeather.
That will take away both passing attacks, so it comes down to who can run the ball more effectively.
Both defenses rank in the top 20 nationally in rushing Explosiveness allowed, and both offenses play slow.
Louisville would have the edge in terms of rushing. But in their first big test against Georgia Tech last weekend, the Cardinals were inefficient, unable to average even three YPC.
Wind is the most significant weather factor in totals. If the wind blows at 10 mph or faster, the under has hit at a very high rate over a large sample size.
I only have 41.2 points projected for this game.
Pick: Under 46.5
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Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech Pick
Texas Tech looks to move to 4-1 when it hosts Cincinnati in a Big 12 showdown.
Cincinnati dominated Houston 34-0 last Saturday to move to 3-1 on the season. Scott Satterfield's team didn't have high expectations coming into the season, but outside of a close loss to Pittsburgh, the Bearcats could make some noise in the Big 12.
Texas Tech has rebounded from its Week 2 loss to Washington State by blowing out North Texas and defeating Arizona State last weekend. This is Joey McGuire's third season, and he is looking to take Texas Tech to the next level after getting to a bowl game in his first two seasons. To do that, the Red Raiders must win games like this, especially with a road trip to Arizona next week.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati's offense is built on its rushing attack, primarily from Corey Kiner. He ran for over 1,000 yards last season and has been even better in 2024.
Through four games, he's averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has been difficult to bring down, averaging 5.19 yards per carry after contact. It helps that Cincinnati returned its entire offensive line from last season and has the 32nd-best run-blocking grade in college football.
What held the Bearcats back last season is they were limited in the passing game with Emory Jones. That has changed this season with Brendan Sorsby transferring in from Indiana.
Sorsby has been one of the most efficient passers in college football this season. He hasn't been asked to throw at a high rate in most games and is averaging nine yards per attempt with a 79.3 PFF Passing grade for the season. Given how much Texas Tech's secondary has struggled, he will be key in this game.
Cincinnati's defense was amazing last weekend against Houston, pitching a shutout and holding it to only 4.2 yards per play and 233 yards of offense.
While the Bearcats have been pretty average versus the run and the pass, they have been outstanding at limiting teams once they cross the40 40-yard line. Cincinnati is 15th in Defensive Finishing Drives, with its opponents only averaging 2.3 points per scoring opportunity.
The Bearcats also have a really good punter in Mason Fletcher, 46 yards per punt and has given Cincinnati's defense the sixth-best average starting field position in college football.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech's offensive is built on its passing attack, and Behren Morton has been hit-and-miss this season. He had exceptional games against Abilene Christian and North Texas, but he struggled against Washington State and Arizona State.
Morton's biggest problem is that he's terrible when throwing from a crowded pocket. He's only been under pressure on 21% of his dropbacks but is just 9-30 for 41 yards with two interceptions on those dropbacks. Cincinnati has a decent pass rush, ranking 64th in terms of a PFF pass-rushing grade, but it has the 14th-best coverage grade in college football.
Texas Tech has been effective on the ground this season, with Tahj Brooks averaging 5.3 yards per carry. It has a solid offensive line in front of him. Cincinnati has not been effective at stopping the run, so he needs to be effective offensively in this game.
Texas Tech's defense has been terrible this season and are due to get the score run up on. For the season, it's 95th in EPA per Play allowed and 117th in explosive plays allowed.
The Raiders are going to have to stop the run in this game and I am not sure they are going to be able to do it. They held Arizona State in check last weekend but are 78th in Rush Success Rate allowed for the season.
The secondary has been even worse, ranking 106th in passing Success Rate allowed. Given the opponents they've faced, that's especially concerning when you are going to face a quarterback as efficient as Brendan Sorsby.
Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech Prediction
This is a good spot to fade Texas Tech. Its defense has been terrible overall this season, and it all started in the first game when they gave up 51 points to Abilene Christian. There are real concerns about how the Raiders will stop Cincinnati's offense. This is the best rushing attack they have faced this season, and if they can't stop Kiner, that will open up the passing game for Sorsby.
The other problem with Texas Tech is its ability to stop teams once they cross the 40-yard line. It ranks 82nd in Finishing Drives allowed, with its opponents averaging close to four points per scoring opportunity. On the flip side, Cincinnati's defense has been really good at limiting its opponent's scoring opportunities, so that could be the difference in the game.
This line should be closer to a pick'em — I only have Texas Tech projected as a -1.1 favorite.
Pick: Cincinnati +3
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