West Virginia vs. Kansas State Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 +100 | 47 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -120 | 47 -110o / -110u | -240 |
A clash of Big 12 foes will have postseason implications on the line Saturday when the Kansas State Wildcats host the West Virginia Mountaineers.
These programs have been the epitome of middling teams. They've been beaten by the conference elite, but have gotten the job done against weaker programs.
That has now made this game a must-win situation for both teams. In West Virginia's case, it needs to win two of its last three contests to get in and next week, the Mountaineers play Texas before concluding the regular season against Kansas.For Kansas State, it needs to win one of their final three games, but after this matchup against the Mountaineers, it will face Baylor and Texas.
We know now both teams will be playing with a sense of urgency, but more importantly, which team presents the best value in this matchup?
Passing Game Will Lead Mountaineers
At this point in the season, it's no secret as to how the Mountaineers want to attack opposing defenses. This West Virginia offense is 22nd in the country in pass rate.
The man who leads the attack is Jarrett Doege. The senior quarterback has had a solid campaign, completing 66 percent of his passes while holding an 11:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His performance in games has been the difference between the Mountaineers winning and losing, as the ground game has been inconsistent.
With the Kansas State defense being 40th in rushing success allowed and 15th in defensive line yards, running back Leddie Brown might be stifled again.
The Kansas State defense is ranked 108th in passing success allowed, which stems directly from being 128th in opponent completion percentage. The Wildcats allow an average of four percent more completions than Doege averages. So, look for West Virginia to lean on Doege and its passing attack, which should have little resistance from the Wildcats' secondary.
Vaughn The Wildcats' Workhorse
The Kansas State offense has been a one-man wrecking crew this season. The man behind all the damage to opposing defenses is Deuce Vaughn. He's having an incredible sophomore season on the ground and through the air. Vaughn has rushed for 866 yards picking them up at a 5.6 per carry rate and he has reached paydirt 12 times. However, Vaughn's numbers don't stop there, as he has hauled in 38 passes for 421 yards, which leads the team.
Vaughn is coming off perhaps his biggest game of the season, as he dominated the Kansas Jayhawks. Vaughn ran for 162 yards and scored three times on just 11 carries. Half of his yards came on this big touchdown run:
DEUCE VAUGHN SAID ✌️#CFB
— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 6, 2021
Vaughn was not finished with Kansas, adding six receptions for 70 yards to his stat sheet.
While Vaughn might be riding high off that huge effort entering this matchup, a looming Mountaineers defense has the tools to slow him down. West Virginia has been stout against the run, as it has held opposing backfields to 3.9 yards per carry and 133 yards per game, which is good for 45th and 35th among FBS programs.
Another area the West Virginia defense will be able to tremendously impact the game is actually when it's backed up in its own territory. The Mountaineers are 41st in opponent red-zone scoring percentage and only improve once opponents cross the 40-yard line, as it ranks 21st in defensive finishing drives.
West Virginia vs. Kansas State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Kansas State match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 80 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 108 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 52 | 48 |  |
| Big Play | 90 | 54 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 53 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 24 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Kansas State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 26 | 55 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 45 | 85 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 53 | 102 | |
| Big Play | 59 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 21 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 38 | 106 |
| Coverage | 98 | 89 |
| Middle 8 | 38 | 48 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 72 | 89 |
| Plays per Minute | 105 | 127 |
| Rush Rate | 50.1% (96) | 58.1% (43) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
West Virginia vs. Kansas State Betting Pick
This line opened at 5.5 and was quickly bet all the way to 6.5. The market has since reacted, with a buyback on West Virginia. And that's the right move, as the line teeters on a key number.
Market analysis aside, this game is dependent on the Mountaineers' ability to slow down Vaughn. West Virginia should have consistent success in the passing game, which will allow them to go punch for punch with the Wildcats if they have to in this matchup.
I am grabbing the value on the Mountaineers, as they have all the tools to not only keep the game close, but also have the motivation to win as well.
